Maryland ungerrymandered map
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  Maryland ungerrymandered map
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: June 11, 2017, 05:37:00 PM »

make a more fair, ungerrymandered map for MD's CD's
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2017, 06:03:59 PM »

This past decade, it would have been a 4D/3R/1T map.  Given how far left MD-06 and the outer DC suburbs in general moved last cycle, there probably isn't enough there to make a 3rd R district anymore, so it would probably be 5D/2R/1T.  MD still has a huge Republican geographical advantage.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2017, 06:11:20 PM »

This past decade, it would have been a 4D/3R/1T map.  Given how far left MD-06 and the outer DC suburbs in general moved last cycle, there probably isn't enough there to make a 3rd R district anymore, so it would probably be 5D/2R/1T.  MD still has a huge Republican geographical advantage.

It would take a Republican gerrymander to draw a 4D/3R/1T map.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2017, 06:18:58 PM »

This past decade, it would have been a 4D/3R/1T map.  Given how far left MD-06 and the outer DC suburbs in general moved last cycle, there probably isn't enough there to make a 3rd R district anymore, so it would probably be 5D/2R/1T.  MD still has a huge Republican geographical advantage.

It would take a Republican gerrymander to draw a 4D/3R/1T map.

Not really, I can do a map that like that with rectangular districts and 2008 numbers.  The tossup seat would be Lean D by 2016, though and the 3rd R district would be close to flipping now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2017, 07:07:32 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2017, 07:52:19 PM by Gass3268 »

Here is a version Stephen Wolf did at DKE:




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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2017, 07:30:40 PM »

This past decade, it would have been a 4D/3R/1T map.  Given how far left MD-06 and the outer DC suburbs in general moved last cycle, there probably isn't enough there to make a 3rd R district anymore, so it would probably be 5D/2R/1T.  MD still has a huge Republican geographical advantage.

It would take a Republican gerrymander to draw a 4D/3R/1T map.

Not really, I can do a map that like that with rectangular districts and 2008 numbers.  The tossup seat would be Lean D by 2016, though and the 3rd R district would be close to flipping now.

Would that comply with the VRA?   The two GOP seats in the east and west are simple obviously.  

After that though you have to go along the western shore of the bay to make a swing/Lean R seat,  doing that would probably pack AA voters into a single Prince Georges district,  or push the district up too high at least.
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MarkD
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2017, 07:49:53 PM »

Here is version Stephen Wolf did at DKE:






That looks great. Gee, isn't it obvious that if state legislators were required to come up with maps like that, it would make them feel too bored?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2017, 08:08:04 PM »

Here is version Stephen Wolf did at DKE:






That looks great. Gee, isn't it obvious that if state legislators were required to come up with maps like that, it would make them feel too bored?

A slightly different version of Districts 2 and 3 here makes one of them a toss up seat Obama won by less than his nationwide margin in 2008, but it would have swung toward Obama in 2012 and 2016 would seal the deal as a Lean Dem seat.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2017, 08:15:08 PM »

Here is version Stephen Wolf did at DKE:




Congress should provide that DC voters vote in Maryland federal electors, and until after the 2020 Census give Maryland+DC 9 representatives for a total of 436. The Maryland legislature would do the redistricting with a requirement that DC be wholly within one congressional district.

The 3 presidential electors for DC would not be appointed, or perhaps might be appointed by the two Houses of Congress and the President. Maryland+DC would have 11 presidential electors.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2017, 09:24:01 PM »

The 23d Amendment to the Constitution grants D.C. 3 electoral votes. That said, I could see a grand bargain where D.C. is merged with Maryland if two similarly underpopulated states with a shorter territorial history than D.C., such as North Dakota and South Dakota or Montana and Wyoming, agreed to a companion merger as well.
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Green Line
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2017, 10:48:14 PM »

The 23d Amendment to the Constitution grants D.C. 3 electoral votes. That said, I could see a grand bargain where D.C. is merged with Maryland if two similarly underpopulated states with a shorter territorial history than D.C., such as North Dakota and South Dakota or Montana and Wyoming, agreed to a companion merger as well.

How is that a compromise?  Republicans give up 2 senators in exchange for what?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2017, 10:53:08 PM »

The 23d Amendment to the Constitution grants D.C. 3 electoral votes. That said, I could see a grand bargain where D.C. is merged with Maryland if two similarly underpopulated states with a shorter territorial history than D.C., such as North Dakota and South Dakota or Montana and Wyoming, agreed to a companion merger as well.
The 23rd Amendment grants to the Congress the authority to determine the manner in which those three electors are appointed. Congress does not have to use popular elections to determine who is appointed. They could choose not to make any appointments. The Constitution recognizes the possibility that some potential electors might not be appointed.

Congress requires that persons residing on domestic US military bases and similar non-military facilities be permitted to vote in state elections. The authority of the Congress over DC and military bases is the same. It was a political decision to deny the vote for residents of DC that may be reversed at the pleasure of the Congress. North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming are sovereign States.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2017, 08:05:29 AM »

The 23d Amendment to the Constitution grants D.C. 3 electoral votes. That said, I could see a grand bargain where D.C. is merged with Maryland if two similarly underpopulated states with a shorter territorial history than D.C., such as North Dakota and South Dakota or Montana and Wyoming, agreed to a companion merger as well.

How is that a compromise?  Republicans give up 2 senators in exchange for what?

I'm just lightheartedly trolling Jim. We can get back to discussing the Maryland map now.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2017, 09:39:37 AM »

I think what would probably happen to some of the districts is what happened with MD-06, except more balanced. MD-06 would add more of Frederick County to make it a tossup and MD-02 would add more of Harford county to make it tossup/leans R. You could also do the same thing to MD-01 by adding more of Baltimore County to it, making it semi-competitive.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2017, 10:17:19 PM »

Here is version Stephen Wolf did at DKE:




Congress should provide that DC voters vote in Maryland federal electors, and until after the 2020 Census give Maryland+DC 9 representatives for a total of 436. The Maryland legislature would do the redistricting with a requirement that DC be wholly within one congressional district.

The 3 presidential electors for DC would not be appointed, or perhaps might be appointed by the two Houses of Congress and the President. Maryland+DC would have 11 presidential electors.

Each Maryland district would need to give up about 13,000 persons.

In the above map MD-2 and MD-7 could retract a bit towards Baltimore, which would produce a net change of 52,000 for MD-6 to MD-3 pulling, MD-3 further north between Baltimore and Washington.

The shifts could continue through MD-5, MD-4, and MD-8, with the addition to MD/DC-9 being on the northwest side of the district into Montgomery.

This would made MD-5 a bit more exurban, and bump the black share of MD-4 up, and put more of Montgomery in SB-8.

Given that Congress has time, place, manner regulation over congressional elections, it could impose the congressional boundaries - since Maryland is unlikely to act rationally.

So the Democrats get another voting representative at the cost of two electoral votes, and the voters in the district get to vote for representatives and senators, and Maryland gets better congressional districts. It is a Win-Win-Win-Win deal. Trump will be proud.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2017, 12:58:29 PM »

I can't post the link, but if you search daily kos maryland gerrymandering, you can find a 8-0 democratic map that looks fair.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2017, 03:21:15 PM »

I can't post the link, but if you search daily kos maryland gerrymandering, you can find a 8-0 democratic map that looks fair.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2017, 04:31:13 PM »

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