Puerto Rico hypothetical congressional districts

[Bidenworth2020]

include the number of CD's, and the lines, party breakdown, and the senatorial breakdown.(governor is optional)

[diptheriadan]

There's an interesting article on the DailyKos about this.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I wonder how parties would develop if PR became a state. I doubt they'd be willing to shed the NPP and PDP so quickly in favor of the mainland parties... maybe we'd see regional party reps elected who'd caucus with the main parties in Congress?

[Vega]

I wonder how parties would develop if PR became a state. I doubt they'd be willing to shed the NPP and PDP so quickly in favor of the mainland parties... maybe we'd see regional party reps elected who'd caucus with the main parties in Congress?

They would be shredded fairly quickly. Most politicians in Puerto Rico declare a loyalty to mainland parties as well as their local ones. Regionalist political parties would not go down well and would be excluded in Washington.

[Lord Halifax]

I wonder how parties would develop if PR became a state. I doubt they'd be willing to shed the NPP and PDP so quickly in favor of the mainland parties... maybe we'd see regional party reps elected who'd caucus with the main parties in Congress?

They would be shredded fairly quickly. Most politicians in Puerto Rico declare a loyalty to mainland parties as well as their local ones. Regionalist political parties would not go down well and would be excluded in Washington.

They could just go the route of the Minnesota Farmer Labor Party.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I wonder how parties would develop if PR became a state. I doubt they'd be willing to shed the NPP and PDP so quickly in favor of the mainland parties... maybe we'd see regional party reps elected who'd caucus with the main parties in Congress?

They would be shredded fairly quickly. Most politicians in Puerto Rico declare a loyalty to mainland parties as well as their local ones. Regionalist political parties would not go down well and would be excluded in Washington.

They could just go the route of the Minnesota Farmer Labor Party.

Which lasted for how long again? 26 years? Most PDP and NPP members are already democrats or republicans, and once they're a state statehood would no longer be an issue.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder how parties would develop if PR became a state. I doubt they'd be willing to shed the NPP and PDP so quickly in favor of the mainland parties... maybe we'd see regional party reps elected who'd caucus with the main parties in Congress?

They would be shredded fairly quickly. Most politicians in Puerto Rico declare a loyalty to mainland parties as well as their local ones. Regionalist political parties would not go down well and would be excluded in Washington.

They could just go the route of the Minnesota Farmer Labor Party.

Which lasted for how long again? 26 years? Most PDP and NPP members are already democrats or republicans, and once they're a state statehood would no longer be an issue.

The Farmer-Labor Party merged with the state Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party affiliate in Minnesota is now the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (or DFL). (Something similar happened in North Dakota, where the state Democratic Party affiliate is, amusingly, the Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party (or DNPL).)

Maybe the same would happen with the PPD, although the Democrats probably would prefer not to retain any of the name in order not to turn off former PNP supporters. PNP I agree would definitely dissolve.

[Dr. MB]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

[publicunofficial]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

[Dr. Arch]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

Likely, especially with Trump becoming the face of the Republican party. With those districts, at least 3 are Safe D, 1 likely D, and one tossup/tilt D based on the island's current political inclinations. I do think it would be Hawaii redux though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

Likely, especially with Trump becoming the face of the Republican party. With those districts, at least 3 are Safe D, 1 likely D, and one tossup/tilt D based on the island's current political inclinations. I do think it would be Hawaii redux though.

Which are which?

[Dr. Arch]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

Likely, especially with Trump becoming the face of the Republican party. With those districts, at least 3 are Safe D, 1 likely D, and one tossup/tilt D based on the island's current political inclinations. I do think it would be Hawaii redux though.

Which are which?

Safe D: Red, Yellow, Green
Likely D: Blue
Tossup-Tilt D: Purple

[Kevinstat]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

Likely, especially with Trump becoming the face of the Republican party. With those districts, at least 3 are Safe D, 1 likely D, and one tossup/tilt D based on the island's current political inclinations. I do think it would be Hawaii redux though.

Which are which?

Safe D: Red, Yellow, Green
Likely D: Blue
Tossup-Tilt D: Purple

Interesting that the more densely populated ones (assuming so since they're smaller) would be the most competitive.  Is there a decent Anglo population around San Juan?

[Dr. Arch]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Puerto Rican elections are squared almost entirely around the statehood issue. In the event of Puerto Rico becoming a state it's probable that Democrats just dominate in every area of the island's politics.

Likely, especially with Trump becoming the face of the Republican party. With those districts, at least 3 are Safe D, 1 likely D, and one tossup/tilt D based on the island's current political inclinations. I do think it would be Hawaii redux though.

Which are which?

Safe D: Red, Yellow, Green
Likely D: Blue
Tossup-Tilt D: Purple

Interesting that the more densely populated ones (assuming so since they're smaller) would be the most competitive.  Is there a decent Anglo population around San Juan?

That particular area is chock full of evangelical conservative and pro-statehood ideologues. They reliably vote conservative in the current alignment, but I doubt that would hold up with how anti-minority the R party is.

The west coast has a good chunk of Anglos who are mostly from the coastal areas (think mini CA), and they are Safe D. The less populous zones are actually collectivist, and are far out of line with the "fiscal conservatism" of today's R party. In fact, even the conservative party in PR runs on collectivist messages, including Rosello Sr.

[jimrtex]

Here's my 5-district plan. I'm not sure how accurate the DRA party data is but all seem fairly competitive.

Would a north south division of the western part of the island be more likely, based on the mountain spine? I assume the Green district is actually San Juan dominated, correct?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Would they go down to 4 districts post-Maria or were they solidly into the 5 range like say Oregon

[Dr. Arch]

Would they go down to 4 districts post-Maria or were they solidly into the 5 range like say Oregon

They might go down to 4.

It's looking like -500,000 in less than a year.

[TJ in Oregon]

The political geography of Puerto Rico is oddly reminiscent of pre-Trump Minnesotan political divides where the urban and some of the rural areas are the most leftwing and the exurbs are the most right wing. The sort of numbers the DRA gives are probably beyond useless as indicators of how PR would vote in normal American elections still. Frankly given the votes of Puerto Ricans here, they'd probably vote like 85%D.