(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[SingingAnalyst]

Three major party candidates have failed to win a majority in even a single state: Taft 1912 (I believe his best showing was 37% in either UT or VT); Mondale 1984 (best showing 49.7% in MN); Bush 1992 (best showing 49.7% in MS).

[SingingAnalyst]

1956 is the last time OK voted more Dem than the national average. 1956 is also the last time MA and NY voted more Republican than the national average.

[SingingAnalyst]

2016 was the first time since 1928 that the GOP won the Presidency without Richard Nixon or a George Bush on the top or the bottom of the ticket.

That is fascinating! In fact every GOP Presidential ticket from 1952 through 2004 (except 1964) had Nixon, a Bush, or Bob Dole on it.

[SingingAnalyst]

The fact that 49 out of 50 states voted for each party at least once between 1964 and 1980 is pretty incredible to think about today. In the same timespan of 2000 through 2016, only 13 states have voted for both parties.

The former analysis holds even if only the 4 elections 1964, 1972, 1976, and 1980 are considered.

How about the fact that the GOP won a majority of the PV in 4 of the 5 elections 1972-1988, and in only 1 of the 7 elections since then (in fact, in only 1 have they even attained a plurality).

[SingingAnalyst]

Since DC residents were granted the right to vote for President, 1968 is the only Presidential election in which one or more states gave a lower percentage of their vote to the GOP candidate than DC. (MS and AL).

Also, adjacent states MI and OH voted alike in just 4 of the 10 elections from 1940 through 1976. Since then, they have voted alike in 8 of 10.

[SingingAnalyst]

Not sure if this is the right spot for this, but I read once (unsure if it is true) that the single most support a Republican Presidential candidate has ever gotten from a county in history was Barry Goldwater in Holmes County, Mississippi, 1964 (96.6%). If this is true, this is pretty ironic because Holmes hadn't voted for a Republican since 1872 and hasn't since 1964.

Excellent statistic (if sad, because it reflects extreme voter intimidation of Blacks). I believe Noxubee County, MS also voted 96.6% GOP in 1964-- and several other MS counties (about 15 I believe) were 95% or more GOP in '64.

[SingingAnalyst]

2000 and 1916 for the Mainland 48 states are nearly mirror image results of each other with the exception of 6 states.  WA CA NM went Dem both years and SD IN WV went GOP both years.

Very interesting; I believe 1956 and 1964 were similarly inverted.

[SingingAnalyst]

The last time the Dems won a majority of counties was 1976. Also, John Kerry in 2004 won more counties in losing the PV (583) than Clinton in 2016 did in winning the PV (490).

[SingingAnalyst]

1992 was the last time (1) at least one county tied; (2) MO voted left of the nation; (3) NJ voted right of the nation; (4) WY was reasonably competitive.

[SingingAnalyst]

Mississippi and Alabama have voted the same way in almost every election both of them could vote in.

I believe the same is true of ME and VT, which differed only in 1912 and 1968 (at least going back to 1900 or so).

[SingingAnalyst]

1992 was the last time either KY or MO (or both) voted left of the national average. 1992 is also the last time the GOP candidate got a higher percentage in NJ than in either KS or WY (or both!)

[SingingAnalyst]

1992 was the last time either KY or MO (or both) voted left of the national average. 1992 is also the last time the GOP candidate got a higher percentage in NJ than in either KS or WY (or both!)

Kentucky didn't vote to the left of the national average in 1992.

I am looking at Clinton's percentage, which was 44.6% in KY in 1992 and 42.95% nationwide. Ditto for MO.

[SingingAnalyst]

Going into the 2016 Presidential election, only 3 women had received a vote in the Electoral College: Tonie Nathan (1972, 1); Geraldine Ferraro (1984, 13); and Sarah Palin (2008, 173).

In 2016, however, seven women received at least one vote in the EC: for President, Hillary Clinton (227) and Faith Spotted Eagle (1); for VP, Elizabeth Warren (2); Carly Fiorina, Maria Cantwell, Susan Collins, and Winona LaDuke (1 each). Of the 6 faithless electors for VP, all voted for women. 2016 is the first time any woman received an EC vote for President.

[SingingAnalyst]

1984 is the last time TN voted left of MI (based on share of 2-party vote).

1988 is the last time that...

WY, NE, and OK (or any of them) voted left of NH;
KS and TX (or either of them) voted left of NJ (based on share of 2-party vote);
SD voted left of OH;
MT voted left of MI (based on share of 2-party vote);
WI voted left of CA, IL, and MD (or any of them);
WV voted left of NY; and
IA voted left of HI and MA (or either of them).

1988 is also the last time that all (or any) of CA, IL, MD, NJ, and VT voted Republican.

1996 is the last time WV voted left of OR (based on share of 2-party vote).

1996 is also the last time that all (or any) of AR, KY, LA, MO, TN, or WV voted Democratic.

[SingingAnalyst]

Election years ending in 4 tend to result in re-election of the President or at least the party in power. The last counterexample was 1884, which was very close.

Also, the last time a non-Gemini was elected on November 8, was in 1932.  All three Nov. 8 elections since then (1960, 1988, 2016) have resulted in a Gemini getting elected (the only 3 Geminis ever elected, as it would happen).

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1968, Humphrey won 55.2% in Macomb County. No Dem since then has reached that figure (though Obama in 2008 came close).

WV, a GOP stronghold at the Presidential level today, is one of only 4 states to vote Dem in both 1980 and 1988 (HI, MN and RI were the other 3), and the only state to do so in 1952 as well (though HI wasn't a state yet). In fact, WV was Carter's 2nd best state in 1980.

Had 6,858 (out of 2.3 million 1992 GA voters) switched their vote from Clinton to Bush, GA would have been the only state to have last voted Democratic in 1980.

[SingingAnalyst]

In the 11 elections since 1972, VA and WV have voted alike only 3 times: 1984, 2000, and 2004.

[SingingAnalyst]

Going back to 1960, the last names of the Democratic candidates for President/VP have totalled 5 syllables several times: Kennedy-Johnson (1960), McGovern-Shriver (1972), Mondale-Ferraro (1984), Dukakis-Bentsen (1988), Obama-Biden (2008 and 2012). Only once in that time has the GOP ticket had as many syllables (Goldwater-Miller, 1964).

Since 1960, five GOP tickets have had two syllables: Ford-Dole (1976), Bush-Quayle (1988 and 1992), Dole-Kemp (1996), Trump-Pence (2016). No Dem tickets since 1960 have been that short.

[SingingAnalyst]

Washtenaw County, Michigan voted to the left of Wayne County Michigan in 2016.

This, and Oakland County, MI voted (well) to the left of both Saginaw and Bay counties. Not sure the last time this happened. In 1988, for example, Saginaw and Bay both voted Dukakis, while Oakland voted Bush by 61.3-37.8. Also in 1988, Wayne Co. voted Dukakis 60/39, while Washtenaw Co. voted Dukakis by only 52.4/46.7.

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1964, Goldwater received more votes in MS than the total number of votes cast in 1960.
In 1968, Wallace received more votes in MS than the total number of votes cast in 1964.
In 1984, Mondale received more votes in DC than the total number of votes cast in 1980.

Other than states/districts that had just joined the Union or been granted the right to vote, I believe these were the only three times that a losing candidate received more votes in a state/district than the the total number of votes cast in that state/district 4 years earlier.

[SingingAnalyst]

Were there any elections in which the winner didn't win any "southern" states? If so, what was the last election in which this happened?

Never.

Obama in 2012 came close; he still would have won without FL and VA.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'm a little curious and I figured some people on here have more time than I do.. Were there any Gore/Bush/Obama/Romney/Trump counties? If so, what states were they concentrated in?

Not sure.

Monroe County, MI (70000+ votes) came close, with Obama beating Romney by less than 1% in 2012. Macomb, MI (400000+ votes) also came close, with Obama beating Romney by 4% in 2012.

[SingingAnalyst]

Keweenaw and Marquette are adjacent counties in MI (albeit the county line runs through Lake Superior, not land). Even so, in 1976-1984 Keweenaw was a Carter-Reagan-Mondale county while Marquette was a Ford-Carter-Reagan county. (In all 6 cases the margins were very close).

[SingingAnalyst]

Going back to 1884, no Democrat has won all 3 of Orange County, CA; Orange County, FL; and Orange County, NY.

From 1948 through 1988, the GOP swept all 3 counties, except in 1964 when Johnson carried Orange County, NY. In each election since then, the Dem has carried at least one: in 1992 and 1996, Clinton carried Orange County, NY only; in 2000 and 2004, Gore and Kerry carried Orange County, FL only; in 2008 and 2012, Obama carried Orange County, FL and Orange County, NY; and finally in 2016, Clinton carried Orange County, CA and Orange County, FL.

[SingingAnalyst]

No there is a county map (besides Hawaii) that has looked the same since 2000 (irrespective of the hues).

Arizona?

That's right.

So, in the last 5 elections, every Arizona county voted either R-R-R-R-R or D-D-D-D-D? Fascinating.