(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[baris39]

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 

You're correct. To my knowledge, Kennedy was the first Democrat ever to win a presidential election without carrying a majority of counties, and he was the first presidential victor of any party since William McKinley in 1896 to do so. Kennedy won 1,186 counties while Nixon carried 1,848. Bill Clinton, as I've noted, was the last Democrat to truly have broad crossover appeal between metropolitan and rural America, and although he won fewer counties then Bush and Dole, he ran close to them, carrying more than 1,500 counties in both 1992 and 1996. In 2000, Gore lost 852 counties which Clinton had won four years previously, and the Democrats have never recovered from that.

Interestingly enough, there were four Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election-Lewis Cass in 1848, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and William Bryan in 1896. Bryan was the last Democrat to do so. Since 1976 alone, there have been five Republicans who have done this-George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 while carrying a majority of counties, so one could say that there were six.

Maybe add Hancock 1880 to the list of Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election?