(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[darklordoftech]

The last three elections in which Ohio voted for the loser are 1892, 1944, and 1960.

[darklordoftech]

2016 was the first time Nevada voted for the loosing candidate since 1976.

[darklordoftech]

Were there any elections in which the winner didn't win any "southern" states? If so, what was the last election in which this happened?

[darklordoftech]

All twelve counties outside Maine that voted for Perot in 1992 (including Morris County, Kansas) voted for Dole four years later.
All three Perot counties in Maine, however, voted for Clinton in 1996.

THAT IS TRIPPY

It is, but not that surprising when you consider that Clinton CRUSHED Dole in the Northeast (that's really where the increase in his vote over '92 came from), while Dole was at least somewhat competitive in the rest of the country.

Any idea why the Northeast was so anti-Dole?

[darklordoftech]

All twelve counties outside Maine that voted for Perot in 1992 (including Morris County, Kansas) voted for Dole four years later.
All three Perot counties in Maine, however, voted for Clinton in 1996.

THAT IS TRIPPY

It is, but not that surprising when you consider that Clinton CRUSHED Dole in the Northeast (that's really where the increase in his vote over '92 came from), while Dole was at least somewhat competitive in the rest of the country.

Any idea why the Northeast was so anti-Dole?

The increasing anti intellectualism and southernization of the GOP hurt them badly in 1996. NJ went from a tossup to solid Dem and hasn't looked back since.

Clinton's attuning himself to the concerns of suburbanites also helped him as well. "Soccer moms" voted solidly for him in '96.

Yea that was the year of V-CHIP's, school uniforms and bringing the internet to schools.

Did Dole oppose any of that? I also doubt that anyone would have voted based on those things.

[darklordoftech]

John McCain got more votes in the primaries in Vermont in 2000 than all of the Democrats combined. I guess that wouldn't have been a surprise at the time, but with today's electoral map I think most people would be surprised.

Does this mean that Vermont voters hate the religious right more than they hate war?

[darklordoftech]

Starting in 1960, a higher percentage of women have voted Democratic than men with the exception of 1976.

[darklordoftech]

Brutal honesty seems to be a losing strategy, as evidenced by Humphrey in 1968 ("there's still work to be done in Vietnam"), Carter in 1980 ("wear a sweater"), and Hillary in 2016 ("your jobs will never come back").

[darklordoftech]

Brutal honesty seems to be a losing strategy, as evidenced by Humphrey in 1968 ("there's still work to be done in Vietnam"), Carter in 1980 ("wear a sweater"), and Hillary in 2016 ("your jobs will never come back").

"I'll raise you taxes, so will he, he won't tell you about it. I just did"- Mondale 1984.

That too.

[darklordoftech]

John Kerry was Lieutenant Governor under Michael Dukakis. Dukakis and Kerry were both defeated by a Bush in a Presidential election.

[darklordoftech]

Starting in 1960, a higher percentage of women have voted Democratic than men with the exception of 1976.

Why was this different in 1976?

I don't know. Ford also won with young voters.

[darklordoftech]

People underestimate how strongly Carter campaigned as two-steps-short-of-George-Wallace.

What do you mean?

Despite winning every county in Massachusetts in 2000, Al Gore is the only democrat since 1996 to not get at least 60 percent of the vote in the state

Do you think that whatever caused Kerry to win New Hampshire in spite of Gore loosing it also gave Kerry 60% in Massachusettes?

[darklordoftech]

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

I would think Mahoning County is one of the largest Mondale - Trump counties. And Mondale didn't just win it by a little bit; he won it by 59-41.

I would agree with you. Mondale was stronger than McGovern in white working-class and blue collar areas throughout much of the Rust Belt. McGovern narrowly lost Mahoning County to Nixon in 1972, the last time it voted Republican before this year. And he lost all of the counties in and around Pittsburgh (Allegheny County); Mondale carried that region in 1984 by decisive margins, which is why he was able to hold Reagan to a single-digit margin in Pennsylvania. Moreover, Mondale did much better than McGovern in West Virginia and in Eastern Kentucky. I recall reading somewhere that he actually won the old incarnation of KY-05 (or a predecessor district) which then encompassed Elliott County and its neighbors; McGovern lost that district.

It seems that McGovern was particularly toxic to the “silent majority”, that the Democratic Party recovered with those voters after McGovern, but slowly lost them in the 21st Century.

[darklordoftech]

Gore’s transformation from 1988 to 2000 is similar to Hillary’s transformation from 2008 to 2016.

[darklordoftech]

1988 and 2004 are the last two times the GOP won the popular vote, the last two times that the candidate perceived as more hawkish won, and both involved a Bush defeating a candidate from Massachusettes.

[darklordoftech]

From 1952 through 2004, 13 of the 14 GOP tickets contained one of the following four men: Richard Nixon, Bob Dole, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush.

Is the Goldwater 1964 ticket the one that didn’t include any of them?

[darklordoftech]

In all Presidential elections starting with 2000 with the exception of 2004, the candidate who sounded more dovish during the debates won.

[darklordoftech]

Franklin County, MS voted the national winner only once during 1948-1980

1948: Thurmond
1952: Stevenson
1956: Stevenson
1960: Unpledged
1964: Goldwater
1968: Wallace
1972: Nixon
1976: Ford
1980: Carter

I wonder why it swung towards Carter in 1980.