(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

2016 was the first time since 1928 that the GOP won the Presidency without Richard Nixon or a George Bush on the top or the bottom of the ticket.

I thought of this the day after the election, but hadn't seen anyone point it out until now.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Popular vote trivia:

Republicans haven't won the popular vote AS THE CHALLENGING PARTY since 1980...this is a record for either party.

Every descendant of a president who received his party's nomination lost the popular vote but still became president whether through the electoral vote (GWB, B. Harrison) or the House (J.Q. Adams), while the only spouse of a president to get her party's nomination won the popular vote but lost the election.

The only two nominees since 1888 (or 1960) to win the popular vote but still lose the election both had a strong connection to Bill Clinton...Gore was his VP, while Hillary was his wife and First Lady.

Depending on whether you think Nixon won the popular vote in in 1960, every popular vote winner who failed to become president came from either New York or Tennessee.

Election years ending in 4 tend to result in re-election of the President or at least the party in power. The last counterexample was 1884, which was very close.

Hmm....no incumbent president has ever lost in a year ending in 4, but at least one have lost in all other years (0, 2, 6, . Only Ford lost in a year ending in 6, thus no elected president has been defeated in a year ending in 6.  Also, there's a strong tendency for years ending in 8 to be open seat races....only exceptions are 1828, 1888, and 1948. Only one incumbent president, Truman, ever won in a year ending in 8, and no elected president ever has!

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

All twelve counties outside Maine that voted for Perot in 1992 (including Morris County, Kansas) voted for Dole four years later.
All three Perot counties in Maine, however, voted for Clinton in 1996.

THAT IS TRIPPY

It is, but not that surprising when you consider that Clinton CRUSHED Dole in the Northeast (that's really where the increase in his vote over '92 came from), while Dole was at least somewhat competitive in the rest of the country.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I just realized recently that despite losing badly, Dukakis won two states that hadn’t gone Dem since 1964-Iowa and Oregon, and also a state that hadn’t gone Dem since 1968-Washington. Dukakis couldn’t hold onto Maryland which Carter won in ‘80, but he could win Ford states?

And yes, I know there are explanations for MD (Willie Horton) and IA (farm crisis). What about WA and OR?

I’m guessing Dukakis also won a lot of counties that hadn’t gone Dem since ‘64. Not bad for someone who lost, though Al Smith and Barry Goldwater also broke new ground.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Between 1928 and 1988 (not including these years) every losing Democratic presidential candidate was a Midwesterner.

Guess you’re not counting losing Democratic incumbents?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If Trump loses, it will only be the second time in history (and the first since 1892) that Republicans only had the White House for one term.

No Republican who's won the popular vote AND succeeded a Democrat has ever lost reelection or even come close to doing so.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Vermont has only voted against a Republican who won the national popular vote one time.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Georgia is anti-incumbent...they have only voted for the incumbent party twice in the last eight elections and only in one of those instances was their vote for an incumbent president.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Trump is the first president since the nineteenth century to lose reelection despite getting more total votes than in their first election. He’s the first ever Republican President to do so.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Trump is the first person to lose despite winning the trifecta of TX/FL/OH.

There is a caveat...it was bound to happen sooner or later..it would've happened in 2000 if Gore won NH, 2004 if Kerry won CO/IA/NM, 2016 if Hillary won MI/PA/WI. Hell, Bob Dole could've won FL and OH and ever state he lost state by margins less than he lost those, and he still would've lost.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Trump is the first person to lose despite winning the trifecta of TX/FL/OH.

There is a caveat...it was bound to happen sooner or later..it would've happened in 2000 if Gore won NH, 2004 if Kerry won CO/IA/NM, 2016 if Hillary won MI/PA/WI. Hell, Bob Dole could've won FL and OH and ever state he lost state by margins less than he lost those, and he still would've lost.

Could've happened in 1960 if Nixon had better luck in TX.

I thought of that, but there's several states Nixon lost by less than he lost TX. I could've mentioned 2012 also...FL and OH were Obama's closest wins, but those two states wouldn't have been enough for Romney to win.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Now 1984 is the most recent election where both candidates are dead, and 1996 is the most recent one where both candidates are alive. Of course, 1976 is the earliest with a living candidate.

And 2000 is the most recent one with all four presidential and vice presidential candidates still alive.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The Democrats haven’t nominated a governor for VP since 1924.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Since senators have been directly elected, Trump is the first president to see his party gain Senate seats in his midterm election and then lose reelection.

The other presidents are Wilson, Kennedy, Nixon, and the younger Bush. Three of those won reelection and the fourth was assassinated but his successor won. Republicans didn't lose any ground in Reagan's midterm and Reagan was reelected.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Republicans have swept all New England counties a handful of times, most recently in 1924 (along with all New York counties).  Ike came close in 1956, only losing Suffolk, MA.

Democrats have never swept the New England counties.  LBJ and Obama-08 each fell one county short; Goldwater won Carroll County, NH and McCain carried Piscataquis, ME.

As far as I know, no candidate of any party has swept every county in all five Deep South states, even though FDR came close each time.

It's ironic how two Arizona Senators, the latter of whom was the successor of the former, had the worst Republican performances in New England.

Clinton '96 won all but two New England counties (both in NH). New England doesn't like western senators apparently...

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Not a presidential election fact, but...

Democrats have twice now gained control of the Senate in an odd-numbered year...both times this century and both times in a year ending in 1.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

So now 2004 is the last presidential election for which all four (Pres and VP) nominees are alive.

When one of them goes, it will be 2012, BUT there's a good chance Biden (VP nominee) goes before any of them. Then it would be 2016, but there's a good chance Trump goes before then.