(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[bagelman]

Idaho has voted Democratic in more presidential elections than Vermont.

They will likely tie in 2024, and Vermont will likely surpass in 2028. But still cool.

[mianfei]

2020 was the first election since 1892 that Ozaukee County, Wisconsin was more Democratic than Robeson County, North Carolina. (Of course back then both counties were much more Democratic than in 2020).

When I realised this back at the time, it really did surprise me — although the impact on the result in those two states where statewide elections have been extremely close in recent years was what stuck in my mind.

Apart from similar population size, the two counties could hardly be less alike in many respects. Ozaukee is one of the wealthiest counties in the country and is historically German-Catholic, whereas Robeson is one of the most diverse counties of its size but is very working class and segregated. Its large Native American population is similar in character to eastern Oklahoma — politically integrated with southern whites at least since the emergence of Trump.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

FDR thought he'd win by 360 to 171 in 1936. Not as inaccurate as the Literary Digest, but still not great. When New Haven's returns came in and had him ahead by 15,000 votes, he requested that the numbers be double-checked. When they were confirmed, he knew he'd won by an absolute blowout margin.

(Source: FDR by Jean Edward Smith)

[TDAS04]

The ranking of states from best to worst for John Anderson in 1980 is a bit similar to the inverse of that for George Wallace in 1968.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The ranking of states from best to worst for John Anderson in 1980 is a bit similar to the inverse of that for George Wallace in 1968.

To some extent it must be true for Perot as well.

[mianfei]

Some regional firsts/lasts (looking from 1856 onwards, since Dem vs. Rep became the norm):

First time the Northeast was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 13% loss vice 17% overall)
Last time the Northeast was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 22% lead vice 15% overall)

First time the South was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (an 8% loss vice 23% overall)
Last time the South was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 6% loss vice 10% overall)

First time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 1964 (23% leads in both cases)
Last time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 2008 (a 9% lead vice 7% overall)

First time the West was more Democratic than the nation: 1896* (a 29% lead vice a 4% loss overall)
Last time the West was more Republican than the nation: 1996 (an 8% loss vice 9% overall)


The Midwest is therefore the only region of the country not to have switched its tendencies over that long period: it's still more Republican than the country as a whole, and has been so in most of the elections during that time.

One further Midwestern stat: in 2016 & 2020 it ran 6.4% & 6.6% more Republican than the nation, which it hadn't done since 1944 (8.7% more). In fact, it hadn't deviated from the national average by more than 4% since 1960 (4.5%).

I’m going to do these by census division — I did the work over the past two days — but I am beginning at 1896 when most of the Mountain States had achieved statehood:

• First time New England was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 6.93 percent loss versus a 17.42 percent loss nationally)
• Last time New England was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 24.14 percent lead versus a 15.40 percent lead nationally)
• First time the Middle Atlantic was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 15.38 percent loss versus a 17.42 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the Middle Atlantic was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 20.84 percent lead versus a 15.40 percent lead nationally)
• First time the South Atlantic was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (an 11.24 percent loss versus a 22.58 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the South Atlantic was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 3.84 percent loss versus a 9.74 percent loss nationally)
• First time the East South Central was more Republican than the nation: 1960 (a 1.34 percent lead versus an 0.16 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the East South Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 1.03 percent loss versus a 9.74 percent loss nationally)
• First time the West South Central was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (a 15.16 percent loss versus an 22.58 percent loss nationally)
• Last time the West South Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1976 (a 5.84 percent lead versus a 2.06 percent lead nationally)
• First time the East North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1964 (a 23.42 percent lead versus a 22.58 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the East North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 2012 (a 6.80 percent lead versus a 3.86 percent lead nationally)
• First time the West North Central was more Republican than the nation: 1900 (an 8.77 percent lead versus a 6.12 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the West North Central was more Democratic than the nation: 1988 (a 1.82 percent loss versus a 7.73 percent loss nationally)
• First time the Mountain States were more Republican than the nation: 1904 (a 22.94 percent lead versus an 18.83 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the Mountain States were more Democratic than the nation: 1948 (a 7.37 percent lead versus a 4.48 percent lead nationally)
• First time the Pacific States were more Republican than the nation: 1900 (a 13.34 percent lead versus a 6.12 percent lead nationally)
• Last time the Pacific States were more Republican than the nation: 1980 (a 15.11 percent loss versus a 9.84 percent loss nationally)

As you note, the Midwest is the only region not to have changed its tendency. In fact, the West North Central has only been more Democratic than the nation in 1896, 1932, 1956, 1972, 1984 and 1988. With the exception of the 49-state landslide Democratic losses of 1972 and 1984, all these elections were substantially affected by agricultural crises involving drought and/or farmer debt. 1984 was mildly affected by such issues, and 1972 of course is due to the influence of “favorite son” voting for landslide loser McGovern (consider that in his home state Hutchinson County and Turner County, which have never supported any Democratic presidential candidate except Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, voted more Democratic than the nation at-large).

[mianfei]

In 1980, Carter came closest in the East South Central states, which he lost, 49% - 48% (though he didn't win a single EV from that region). In 1988, Dukakis came closest in New England, which he lost 49.5% - 49.3%, and also came close in the Mid-Atlantic, West North Central, and Pacific regions.

What’s remarkable about Carter is that:

• in his two presidential runs he lost a total of twenty states by margins of less than three points
• in seven of fifty states (and very nearly an eighth, there being only an 0.01 percent difference) the closest result since the Civil War was a defeat for Carter

For comparison with the latter factoid, if we look at the closest presidential election in each state since the Civil War, we see that only Benjamin Harrison, with five of fifty states, is remotely close to Carter, and two of Harrison’s five cases were lost to Populist James Weaver in 1892.

[The Arizonan]

I’m not sure if this is accurate, but every president that was born in Massachusetts or lived in that state never got elected to two presidential terms.

[mianfei]

Some more figures by census division:

New England:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1964 (45 percent lead versus 23 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (41 percent lead versus 5 percent lead overall)

Middle Atlantic:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2000 (17 percent lead versus 1 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (21 percent lead versus 5 percent lead overall)

South Atlantic:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1924 (13 percent lead versus 26 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1972 (37 percent lead versus 23 percent lead overall)

East South Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (17 percent lead versus 19 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1964 (11 percent lead versus 23 percent loss overall)

West South Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (44 percent lead versus 19 percent loss overall)
• Since the admission of Oklahoma (during the “Solid South” era the only West South Central State with a viable Republican Party): 1924 (34 percent lead versus 26 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 2004 (21 percent lead versus 2 percent lead overall)

East North Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2008 (13 percent lead versus 7 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1924 (35 percent lead versus 26 percent lead overall)

West North Central:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1932 (23 percent lead versus 18 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 2016 (14 percent lead versus 2 percent loss overall)

Mountain States:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 1896 (63 percent lead versus 5 percent loss overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1980 (32 percent lead versus 9 percent lead overall)

Pacific States:

• Democrats’ biggest overperformance: 2016 (25 percent lead versus 2 percent lead overall)
• Republicans’ biggest overperformance: 1904 (41 percent lead versus 19 percent lead overall)

It’s notable that the elections of 1896 and 1904 are mentioned three times. 1924 (South Atlantic and East North Central), 1964 (New England and East South Central) and 2016 (Pacific and West North Central) are each mentioned twice.

No election from 1984 to 1996 is mentioned, although 1988 is extremely close to equalling 1932 for the biggest Democratic overperformance in the West North Central. Nor is any election from 1936 to 1960.

[E-Dawg]

FDR thought he'd win by 360 to 171 in 1936. Not as inaccurate as the Literary Digest, but still not great. When New Haven's returns came in and had him ahead by 15,000 votes, he requested that the numbers be double-checked. When they were confirmed, he knew he'd won by an absolute blowout margin.

(Source: FDR by Jean Edward Smith)

Have a list of the states FDR expected to lose? I'm curious to see the map he predicted.

[Mr. Smith]

As you can see, in all the zero years since JFK, Dems have only gotten four states all four times, DC probably goes to JFK if granted so, yeah.

[Gracile]

Clark County, Washington has voted Democratic in six of the eight presidential elections since 1992 (only voting Republican in 2000 and 2004 in that period). However, all six of those times (as well as 2000 and 2004), it has voted more Republican than the nation.

Even more interestingly, the county had a streak of voting more Democratic than the nation from 1932 to 1988 - including two recent elections where it voted Republican before its Republican-leaning streak, 1980 and 1984.

[TDAS04]

The only state where Dukakis didn’t outperform McGovern? Massachusetts.

I’m not sure what’s the worst performance of all time for a major-party’s presidential nominee in their own state, but Mitt Romney’s 23-point loss in the Bay State has got to be up there.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If we're counting running mates, New York has given two of their compatriots even worse performances. William Miller in 1964 (-37.3) and Franklin Roosevelt in 1920 (-37.6)

[TDAS04]

1948's the only time a third candidate swept every county in a state, when Strom Thurmond did so in Mississippi (and fell one county short of accomplishing the same in Alabama, two in South Carolina).

Three candidates won a presidential election while not appearing on the ballot in Alabama (Lincoln, Truman, LBJ).

[Sumner 1868]

The only state where Dukakis didn’t outperform McGovern? Massachusetts.

I’m not sure what’s the worst performance of all time for a major-party’s presidential nominee in their own state, but Mitt Romney’s 23-point loss in the Bay State has got to be up there.

John C Frémont came third in California in 1856. Other than that if looks Romney is the second-worst home state performance since universal male suffrage.

[TDAS04]

Elections where the winning candidate lost their home state:

1844: Polk lost Tennessee, barely.
1916: Wilson lost New Jersey by 12%!
1968: Nixon was a resident of New York at the time, which he lost to Humphrey.
2016: This one shouldn't really count since both candidates were New York residents (still fun to know how much Trump is hated by New York, especially New York City. Especially Manhattan).

[WalterWhite]

1976 was the last time every single state in the country shifted in the same direction politically from the previous presidential election.

[TDAS04]

1992 was the last time every county in a state flipped from backing one party’s presidential nominee four year earlier to voting against that party’s candidate. Every county in Maine went for Bush in 1988, but they all flipped for either Clinton or Perot four years later.

If that doesn’t count, all of Hawaii flipped from (non-Atlas colors) red to blue in 1988.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

1992 was the last time every county in a state flipped from backing one party’s presidential nominee four year earlier to voting against that party’s candidate. Every county in Maine went for Bush in 1988, but they all flipped for either Clinton or Perot four years later.

If that doesn’t count, all of Hawaii flipped from (non-Atlas colors) red to blue in 1988.

Neither as impressive as Georgia from 1972 to 1976 of course.

[Orser67]

PA had back-to-back-to-back state AGs who were (at some point) nominated for VP by a major presidential party or significant third party: Jared Ingersoll (Clinton's running mate in 1812), Richard Rush (Adams's running mate in 1828), and Amos Ellmaker (Wirt's running mate in 1832). John Sergeant, Clay's running mate in 1832, was the brother of Thomas Sergeant, who was Ellmaker's successor as PA state AG. George Dallas later became the fourth PA state AG to serve as a running mate, and the first to become vice president.

[TDAS04]

Strom Thurmond was on the ballot in Kentucky in 1948, but he only received about 1.3% of the vote, or just over 10,000 votes statewide (Barkley probably boosted Turman's performance). In Elliott County, Thurmond didn't even receive a single vote.

[Cape Verde]

Franklin County, MS voted the national winner only once during 1948-1980

1948: Thurmond
1952: Stevenson
1956: Stevenson
1960: Unpledged
1964: Goldwater
1968: Wallace
1972: Nixon
1976: Ford
1980: Carter

[darklordoftech]

Franklin County, MS voted the national winner only once during 1948-1980

1948: Thurmond
1952: Stevenson
1956: Stevenson
1960: Unpledged
1964: Goldwater
1968: Wallace
1972: Nixon
1976: Ford
1980: Carter

I wonder why it swung towards Carter in 1980.

[wnwnwn]

Counties that voted republicam in 1984 and 1980, democrat from 1988 to 2012 and republican in 2016 and 2020.
Niagara, NY
Lake, MI
Bay, MI
Adams, WA
Crawford, WA
Dunn, WA
Grant, WA
Jackson, WA
Lafayette, WA
Trempealeau, WA
Vernos, WA
Fillmore, MA
Lac qui Parle, MA
Fulton, IL
Henderson, IL
Knox, IL
Putnam, IL
Whiteside, IL
Buchanan, IA
Chikasaw, IA
Clarke, IA
Clinton, IA
Clinton, IA
Howard, IA
A lot more...