(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Trump is the first person to lose despite winning the trifecta of TX/FL/OH.

There is a caveat...it was bound to happen sooner or later..it would've happened in 2000 if Gore won NH, 2004 if Kerry won CO/IA/NM, 2016 if Hillary won MI/PA/WI. Hell, Bob Dole could've won FL and OH and ever state he lost state by margins less than he lost those, and he still would've lost.

Could've happened in 1960 if Nixon had better luck in TX.

I thought of that, but there's several states Nixon lost by less than he lost TX. I could've mentioned 2012 also...FL and OH were Obama's closest wins, but those two states wouldn't have been enough for Romney to win.

[SingingAnalyst]

Of the top 9 most Democratic counties in 1976, 7 were in GA (Banks, Brantley, Wilcox, Dodge, Lanier, Berrien, Franklin), which is hardly surprising in itself. Of these 7 counties, 4 gave Trump more than 82.8% in 2020, and one (Brantley) gave him over 90%.

Trivia: Banks County, GA is Detroit Tiger (from years ago) Ty Cobb's birthplace.

The top 2 Republican counties in 1976 are both in east-central Kentucky (Jackson and Owsley); both have given the GOP 70% or more in virtually every election going back to the Civil War. While Trump "cleaned up" in both counties (89.2% and 83.8%), his percentage was lower than in some of the top 9 Democratic counties mentioned above.

Trivia: Owsley had a higher proportion of its people volunteer for the Union Army than any other Kentucky county.

[DistingFlyer]

From 1980 to 2016 (with the exception of 2000), the Republican nominee had always been a major contender in a previous contest:

1980: Reagan, who had run second to Ford in 1976
1988: Bush, who had run second to Reagan in 1980
1996: Dole, who had run second to Bush in 1988
2008: McCain, who had run second to Bush in 2000
2012: Romney, who had run second to McCain in 2008

The runner-up to Dole in 1996 was Pat Buchanan, who ran on the Reform ticket instead in 2000; while the runner-up to Romney in 2012 was Rick Santorum, who barely registered at all in 2016.

Ted Cruz was the runner-up in 2016; given how firmly he's planted his flag on the fraud claims (while not outright claiming fraud, just 'there are a lot of allegations & suspicious people out there'), he's probably hoping the old pattern re-asserts itself.

[DistingFlyer]

Some regional firsts/lasts (looking from 1856 onwards, since Dem vs. Rep became the norm):

First time the Northeast was more Democratic than the nation: 1928 (a 13% loss vice 17% overall)
Last time the Northeast was more Republican than the nation: 1956 (a 22% lead vice 15% overall)

First time the South was more Republican than the nation: 1964 (an 8% loss vice 23% overall)
Last time the South was more Democratic than the nation: 1980 (a 6% loss vice 10% overall)

First time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 1964 (23% leads in both cases)
Last time the Midwest was more Democratic than the nation: 2008 (a 9% lead vice 7% overall)

First time the West was more Democratic than the nation: 1896* (a 29% lead vice a 4% loss overall)
Last time the West was more Republican than the nation: 1996 (an 8% loss vice 9% overall)


The Midwest is therefore the only region of the country not to have switched its tendencies over that long period: it's still more Republican than the country as a whole, and has been so in most of the elections during that time.

One further Midwestern stat: in 2016 & 2020 it ran 6.4% & 6.6% more Republican than the nation, which it hadn't done since 1944 (8.7% more). In fact, it hadn't deviated from the national average by more than 4% since 1960 (4.5%).

[DistingFlyer]

This has nothing to do with numbers, but with names: the tendency to refer to Vice Presidents always by their first names even when they go by their second ones.

I'm thinking of Spiro Theodore Agnew, known as Ted, but always called Spiro Agnew in the newspapers, and Walter Frederick Mondale, known as Fritz, but always called Walter Mondale in the newspapers. Dan Quayle is an exception to this pattern, of course.

Would anyone refer to Presidents John Coolidge, Thomas Wilson or Stephen Cleveland (or, for that matter, wannabe-President Rafael Cruz)?

[DistingFlyer]

The Electoral College is almost always referred to as favoring Republican candidates - in practice, of course, this is what has happened, given the 1876, 1888, 2000 & 2016 elections (with only 1960 as a counter), but if you look at the vote distributions for each election the picture becomes a little more even.

From the end of Reconstruction through Truman's victory, the Electoral College favored Republicans for most of that period: the huge Democratic margins in the South put them at a nationwide disadvantage, as 1876 & 1888 showed, and as 1916 & 1948 very nearly did.

In contrast, in the 18 elections from 1952 to the present, the Republican ticket has been favored in nine of them and the Democratic ticket in nine. The Republicans were most favored in either 2016 (320-218 if the popular vote was tied) or 2020 (a 3.8% Democratic lead required for a majority), while the Democrats were most favored in either 1960 (303-220-14 if the popular vote was tied, which is what happened) or 1964 (a 2% Republican lead required for a majority).

I should caveat this, however, by noting that in those nine elections where the Democrats are favored, it's generally by smaller margins than the nine in which the Republicans are favored. Those nine pro-Democratic elections (1956, 1960, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1996, 2004, 2008 & 2012) give an average outcome of 285-250 if the popular vote was tied, while the nine pro-Republican elections give an average outcome of 297-236. The overall average for all eighteen elections is 273-260 for the Republicans.

[DistingFlyer]

Some more regional figures:

Northeast
Democrats' biggest overperformance: 2000 (17% lead vice 1% overall)
Republicans' biggest overperformance: 1896 (26% lead vice 4% overall)

South
Democrats' biggest overperformance: 1924 (19% lead vice 25% loss overall)
Republicans' biggest overperformance: 1972 (38% lead vice 23% overall)

Midwest
Democrats' biggest overperformance: 1972 (20% loss vice 23% loss overall)
Republicans' biggest overperformance: 1904 (29% lead vice 19% overall)

West
Democrats' biggest overperformance: 1896 (29% lead vice 4% loss overall)
Republicans' biggest overperformance: 1904* (32% lead vice 19% overall)


Note that three elections get mentioned twice here: 1896 (Dems in W, Reps in NE), 1904 (Reps in MW & W) & 1972 (Dems in MW, Reps in S).


*I didn't put 1892 given the Democratic ticket's absence from the ballot in favor of the Populists in some Western states

[DistingFlyer]

And a few more regional tidbits:

First time the Northeast was the best Democratic region: 1960 (6% lead vice 0% overall)
Last time the Northeast was the best Republican region: 1956 (22% lead vice 15% overall)

Last time the South was the best Democratic region: 1956 (4% loss vice 15% overall)
First time the South was the best Republican region: 1964 (8% loss vice 23% overall)

First time the Midwest was the best Democratic region: has never happened
Last time the Midwest was the best Republican region: 1960 (5% lead vice 0% overall)

First time the West was the best Democratic region: 1896 (29% lead vice 4% loss overall)
Last time the West was the best Republican region: 1980 (20% lead vice 10% overall)


The South has been the Republicans' best region since 1984, which is the longest continuous period for any region for them (previously the Northeast, Midwest & West all rotated through that position, with the previous record being the Northeast from 1908 through 1920).

The Northeast has been the Democrats' best region since 1980, with the exception of 2016 when the West took that prize. The longest previous streak had been, obviously, the South, where it served as their best region through 1956, with the exception of 1896.

[DistingFlyer]

Instances where the safest state voted for a losing candidate:

2020: Trump wins Wyoming by 43% (safest Biden state is Vermont, with a 35% margin)
2012: Romney wins Utah by 48% (safest Obama state is Hawaii, with a 43% margin)
1968: Wallace wins Alabama by 47% (safest Nixon state is Nebraska, with a 28% margin; & safest Humphrey state is Rhode Island, with a 32% margin)
1964: Goldwater wins Mississippi by 74% (safest Johnson state is Rhode Island, with a 62% margin)
1948: Thurmond wins Mississippi by 77% (safest Truman state is Texas, with a 42% margin)

1876-1928: every Republican victory except 1880

1856: Fremont wins Vermont by 57% (safest Buchanan state is Arkansas, with a 34% margin)
1848: Cass wins Texas by 41% (safest Taylor state is Rhode Island, with a 28% margin)

[DistingFlyer]

Only once - 1992 - has an incumbent President lost by a narrower margin than that by which he first won (370-168 vs. 426-112).


All other instances of a President losing:

1800 - Adams loses 73-65, after previously winning 71-68
1828 - Adams loses 178-83, after previously winning due to the House of Representatives (& an 84-99 electoral vote)
1840 - Van Buren loses 234-60, after previously winning 170-124
1888: Cleveland loses 233-168, after previously winning 219-182 (although his popular vote margin increased from 0.6% to 0.8%)
1892 - Harrison loses 277-145, after previously winning 233-168
1912 - Taft loses 435-8-88, after previously winning 321-162 (only instance of an incumbent President coming third)
1932 - Hoover loses 472-59, after previously winning 444-87
1980 - Carter loses 489-49, after previously winning 297-241
2020 - Trump loses 306-232, after previously winning 306-232 (have listed him here as the popular margin against him in 2020 - 4.5% - was greater than in 2016 - 2.1%)

[Catalyst138]

The last time Mississippi and Alabama voted differently from each other was 1840.

[Alcibiades]

Barack Obama is the only ever major party presidential candidate born after the 1940s.

[Mr. Smith]

Barack Obama is the only ever major party presidential candidate born after the 1940s.

Barack Obama is the only successor to not be older than his predecessor since 1992.

[Calthrina950]

Barack Obama is the only ever major party presidential candidate born after the 1940s.

It's truly astonishing to me how Obama was able to break the mold, if you will, although I think 2020 will be the last presidential election in which one, or both, major party presidential candidates were born in the 1940s. By far, Obama remains the youngest living President, as he is 37 years (!) younger than Jimmy Carter, 19 years younger than Joe Biden, and 16 years younger than Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Trump. Paul Ryan (born in 1970) is the youngest living vice-presidential candidate, as he is six years younger than Sarah Palin and Kamala Harris, 11 years younger than Mike Pence, 12 years younger than Tim Kaine, 17 years younger than John Edwards, 23 years younger than Dan Quayle, 28 years younger than Joe Biden and Joe Lieberman, 29 years younger than Dick Cheney, and 42 years younger than Walter Mondale.

[morgankingsley]

The last time Mississippi and Alabama voted differently from each other was 1840.

If I am correct, actually the only time

[TDAS04]

I believe someone has already mentioned in this thread that Montana has always voted more Democratic than Wyoming and Idaho. That’s why it’s odd that Montana and Idaho have only twice actually supported different candidates—1892 and 1992.

[Mr. Smith]

The last time Mississippi and Alabama voted differently from each other was 1840.

If I am correct, actually the only time

1960.

[TDAS04]

The last time Mississippi and Alabama voted differently from each other was 1840.

If I am correct, actually the only time

1960.

It sort of counts, and sort of doesn't, like 1868.

[morgankingsley]

I believe someone has already mentioned in this thread that Montana has always voted more Democratic than Wyoming and Idaho. That’s why it’s odd that Montana and Idaho have only twice actually supported different candidates—1892 and 1992.

In 2092, idaho is going to be giving the republican 100 percent and Montana gives the democratic candidate 100 percent

[Chips]

1988 is the last time to date that WI, MI and PA didn't all vote for the same party. This could've happened in 2000, 2004 and 2020 if the GOP had just slightly better luck in Wisconsin or 2016 if the Dems had just focused on Michigan just a bit more.

[Chips]

Going back to 1884, no Democrat has won all 3 of Orange County, CA; Orange County, FL; and Orange County, NY.

From 1948 through 1988, the GOP swept all 3 counties, except in 1964 when Johnson carried Orange County, NY. In each election since then, the Dem has carried at least one: in 1992 and 1996, Clinton carried Orange County, NY only; in 2000 and 2004, Gore and Kerry carried Orange County, FL only; in 2008 and 2012, Obama carried Orange County, FL and Orange County, NY; and finally in 2016, Clinton carried Orange County, CA and Orange County, FL.

This streak came so close to breaking in 2020. Trump won Orange, NY by just 0.19%.

[Chips]

Turnout for the 2020 election was the highest for any election in 120 years.

[TDAS04]

Six non-Protestants have been major party presidential nominees; four were from Massachusetts. 

The 2012 GOP ticket was the only major party ticket comprised of two non-Protestants.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's not directly about a presidential election, but about primaries. I hope that counts.

Hillary Clinton never won the two South Dakotan counties - Campbell and Roberts - neither 2008 nor 2016 - her husband had won in 1992.


ill won Roberts County in the general elections twice, but Hillary didn't even manage to do that, either.

[Canis]

In the last 4 Presidential elections, every Republican nominee (McCain-Romney-Trump-Trump) has gotten 30% in Vermont in 2012 Romney came the closest to getting 31% with 30.97%