(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 12:24:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  (Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 20
Author Topic: (Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.  (Read 59698 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #325 on: December 13, 2020, 07:54:07 PM »

Someone else pointed out that no state got 2004, 2012, 2016, 2020 all correct.

As for 1976 - 2000 - 2020:
Of the states that voted Carter - Gore, all voted Biden in 2020.
Of the states that voted Ford - Gore, all but IA and ME-2 voted Biden in 2020.
Of the states that voted Carter - Bush, only GA voted Biden in 2020.
However, several Ford - Bush states voted Biden in 2020: AZ, CO, NE-2, NV, NH, and VA.
Logged
Alcibiades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #326 on: December 21, 2020, 05:41:55 PM »

Joe Biden’s birth was closer to the end of the US Civil War than to his election as President.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #327 on: December 21, 2020, 05:44:05 PM »

The difference between the population numbers of the home states of the president and the vice president, respectively, have never been bigger than in 2020.

Biden's the 1st president from a 3 EV state at the time of his election, right? 

*From = state where they had their political career/last held elected office, not state of birth

Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #328 on: December 21, 2020, 11:26:54 PM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #329 on: December 22, 2020, 04:43:19 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #330 on: December 22, 2020, 10:04:53 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2020, 10:12:29 AM by Calthrina950 »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #331 on: December 22, 2020, 12:15:12 PM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.
I would think Mahoning County is one of the largest Mondale - Trump counties. And Mondale didn't just win it by a little bit; he won it by 59-41.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #332 on: December 23, 2020, 06:04:32 PM »

1840: 20K [Van Buren did quite well for such unpopularity]
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #333 on: December 23, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »
« Edited: December 23, 2020, 07:48:23 PM by Calthrina950 »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.
I would think Mahoning County is one of the largest Mondale - Trump counties. And Mondale didn't just win it by a little bit; he won it by 59-41.

I would agree with you. Mondale was stronger than McGovern in white working-class and blue collar areas throughout much of the Rust Belt. McGovern narrowly lost Mahoning County to Nixon in 1972, the last time it voted Republican before this year. And he lost all of the counties in and around Pittsburgh (Allegheny County); Mondale carried that region in 1984 by decisive margins, which is why he was able to hold Reagan to a single-digit margin in Pennsylvania. Moreover, Mondale did much better than McGovern in West Virginia and in Eastern Kentucky. I recall reading somewhere that he actually won the old incarnation of KY-05 (or a predecessor district) which then encompassed Elliott County and its neighbors; McGovern lost that district.
Logged
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #334 on: December 24, 2020, 12:29:06 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #335 on: December 24, 2020, 04:07:12 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 

You're correct. To my knowledge, Kennedy was the first Democrat ever to win a presidential election without carrying a majority of counties, and he was the first presidential victor of any party since William McKinley in 1896 to do so. Kennedy won 1,186 counties while Nixon carried 1,848. Bill Clinton, as I've noted, was the last Democrat to truly have broad crossover appeal between metropolitan and rural America, and although he won fewer counties then Bush and Dole, he ran close to them, carrying more than 1,500 counties in both 1992 and 1996. In 2000, Gore lost 852 counties which Clinton had won four years previously, and the Democrats have never recovered from that.

Interestingly enough, there were four Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election-Lewis Cass in 1848, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and William Bryan in 1896. Bryan was the last Democrat to do so. Since 1976 alone, there have been five Republicans who have done this-George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 while carrying a majority of counties, so one could say that there were six.
Logged
baris39
Newbie
*
Posts: 8
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #336 on: December 25, 2020, 01:13:06 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 

You're correct. To my knowledge, Kennedy was the first Democrat ever to win a presidential election without carrying a majority of counties, and he was the first presidential victor of any party since William McKinley in 1896 to do so. Kennedy won 1,186 counties while Nixon carried 1,848. Bill Clinton, as I've noted, was the last Democrat to truly have broad crossover appeal between metropolitan and rural America, and although he won fewer counties then Bush and Dole, he ran close to them, carrying more than 1,500 counties in both 1992 and 1996. In 2000, Gore lost 852 counties which Clinton had won four years previously, and the Democrats have never recovered from that.

Interestingly enough, there were four Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election-Lewis Cass in 1848, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and William Bryan in 1896. Bryan was the last Democrat to do so. Since 1976 alone, there have been five Republicans who have done this-George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 while carrying a majority of counties, so one could say that there were six.


Maybe add Hancock 1880 to the list of Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election?
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #337 on: December 25, 2020, 01:22:15 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.

All these people getting mad about discussion of number of counties won, and what's in bold is the only point I'm ever trying to make. Geographic polarization is much more prevalent than it used to be...prior to 1992, I think the only person in the twentieth century who won without a majority of counties was JFK, and that election was very close. 

You're correct. To my knowledge, Kennedy was the first Democrat ever to win a presidential election without carrying a majority of counties, and he was the first presidential victor of any party since William McKinley in 1896 to do so. Kennedy won 1,186 counties while Nixon carried 1,848. Bill Clinton, as I've noted, was the last Democrat to truly have broad crossover appeal between metropolitan and rural America, and although he won fewer counties then Bush and Dole, he ran close to them, carrying more than 1,500 counties in both 1992 and 1996. In 2000, Gore lost 852 counties which Clinton had won four years previously, and the Democrats have never recovered from that.

Interestingly enough, there were four Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election-Lewis Cass in 1848, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and William Bryan in 1896. Bryan was the last Democrat to do so. Since 1976 alone, there have been five Republicans who have done this-George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 while carrying a majority of counties, so one could say that there were six.


Maybe add Hancock 1880 to the list of Democrats during the nineteenth century who carried a majority of counties but lost the election?

I can't find information on exactly how many counties Hancock and Garfield each carried that year. But from a look at the county map, it's obvious to me that Hancock won a majority of counties. So that would be five Democrats during the nineteenth century.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #338 on: December 25, 2020, 01:29:01 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.
Interesting analysis. I suspect that county-level data (except for the 100 or so largest counties) will be increasingly trivial going forward, rather than consequential. To my knowledge, the asymmetry between party popularity and county size has never been more obvious: look at a recent Top 10 list of Democratic counties and you'll see Bronx, Manhattan, San Francisco. On the GOP side you'll see tiny rural counties that few have heard of unless they live in that state. Until the 2000s, both lists tended to consist of relatively small counties.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried the majority of counties. Since Reagan flipped fewer than 1,000 (according to your analysis), it follows that Carter, in losing in 1980, still carried far more counties than Biden did in 2020 in winning. I've seen on this Forum speculation as to whether the Democrats can win 20% (!) of counties.

Reagan flipped 810 counties. Ford had won 1,403 counties in 1976, while Carter carried 1,711-the last Democrat to win a majority of counties. In 1980, Reagan won 2,213 counties while Carter carried 900. Carter not only carried more counties than Biden, but he also won more than Al Gore in 2000 (674), Barack Obama in both of his elections (875 in 2008 and 693 in 2012), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (490). Geographic polarization certainly has intensified in the past four decades. But I'd agree with you that such analysis will become trivial moving forward.

As this election amply demonstrated, "land doesn't vote, people do", and Biden won virtually all of the 100 most populous counties in the country. Moreover, the 48 counties that he did flip were predominantly populous urban or suburban counties, such as Duval County, Florida and Chesterfield County, Virginia. Trump's flips came in rural or exurban counties, like Zapata County, Texas and Mahoning County, Ohio.
I would think Mahoning County is one of the largest Mondale - Trump counties. And Mondale didn't just win it by a little bit; he won it by 59-41.

I would agree with you. Mondale was stronger than McGovern in white working-class and blue collar areas throughout much of the Rust Belt. McGovern narrowly lost Mahoning County to Nixon in 1972, the last time it voted Republican before this year. And he lost all of the counties in and around Pittsburgh (Allegheny County); Mondale carried that region in 1984 by decisive margins, which is why he was able to hold Reagan to a single-digit margin in Pennsylvania. Moreover, Mondale did much better than McGovern in West Virginia and in Eastern Kentucky. I recall reading somewhere that he actually won the old incarnation of KY-05 (or a predecessor district) which then encompassed Elliott County and its neighbors; McGovern lost that district.
It seems that McGovern was particularly toxic to the “silent majority”, that the Democratic Party recovered with those voters after McGovern, but slowly lost them in the 21st Century.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #339 on: December 25, 2020, 07:23:26 PM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

To be fair when you're george mcgovern the only way for the democrats to go as up
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #340 on: December 25, 2020, 09:18:12 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2020, 02:52:22 AM by Calthrina950 »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

To be fair when you're george mcgovern the only way for the democrats to go as up

That is understandable, but I was focusing on Carter's status as one of only four candidates to flip such an enormous amount of counties.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,730


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #341 on: December 27, 2020, 12:51:53 AM »

Here's another interesting set of facts which I learned today, as I was doing additional work on my Ferguson Scenario project. As far as I can tell, there have been only four candidates in the past ninety years who have managed to flip at least 1,000 counties from the preceding election: Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 1932, Roosevelt won 1,791 counties carried by Herbert Hoover in 1928; 1928-1932 saw the greatest swing between presidential elections in American history. 32 years later, Johnson flipped 1,075 counties won by Nixon in 1960.

In 1972, Nixon himself won 1,147 counties carried by either Humphrey (575) or Wallace (572) in 1968. Then just four years later, in 1976, Carter won 1,582 counties carried by Nixon in 1972. Roosevelt, Johnson, and Nixon all won landslides, but Carter narrowly defeated Gerald Ford. The former three candidates gained counties in every region of the country, whereas Carter's gains were primarily concentrated in the South, and he gained much less ground in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. It's fascinating how three of these four shifts involved Nixon in some way-Johnson and Carter both achieved this feat through picking up counties which had been carried by Nixon before them, and Nixon himself achieved it in his third election.

To be fair when you're george mcgovern the only way for the democrats to go as up

There are plenty of Counties in the Country where Democrats today would be doing great if they were able to match the numbers McGovern got.
Logged
MoreThanPolitics
Rookie
**
Posts: 240


Political Matrix
E: 1.50, S: 2.62

P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #342 on: December 27, 2020, 11:04:20 AM »

In this election, Missouri trended Dem for the first time since 1992.
Logged
Catalyst138
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #343 on: December 27, 2020, 12:51:54 PM »

The statement “As Maine goes, so goes Vermont” is very accurate.

Since the Civil War, Maine and Vermont have only voted for different candidates twice: 1912 and 1968.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #344 on: December 27, 2020, 05:28:50 PM »

The statement “As Maine goes, so goes Vermont” is very accurate.

Since the Civil War, Maine and Vermont have only voted for different candidates twice: 1912 and 1968.


1912 was when Vermont was still the most Republican state in the country. Theodore Roosevelt got 35% of the vote there, but placed second behind Taft, who retained enough of the loyalist Yankee Republican vote to win by a 1,200 vote margin, and with a 37.13% plurality. Vermont was one of only two states Taft carried that year (the other was Utah). 56 years later, Maine's own Junior Senator, Ed Muskie, who was very popular in his home state at the time, was Hubert Humphrey's running mate, enabling Humphrey to win Maine, while Vermont returned to its GOP loyalties after having bolted for the first time ever in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. But in the modern era, Vermont is significantly more Democratic than Maine is; Biden won Vermont by 35%, but Maine by "only" 9%. And in a future election-perhaps as early as 2024 or 2028-I could see Maine voting Republican but Vermont remaining Democratic.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,475
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #345 on: December 27, 2020, 09:27:55 PM »

Going back through 1860, the candidate who carried the city of Philadelphia was likely the same candidate who won a majority of the black vote nationwide each time.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #346 on: December 28, 2020, 02:46:24 AM »

Going back through 1860, the candidate who carried the city of Philadelphia was likely the same candidate who won a majority of the black vote nationwide each time.

1932, the year in which Philadelphia last voted Republican, was also the last year in which a Republican won a majority of the black vote. I've read that Hoover won up to two-thirds of the black vote that year.
Logged
Alcibiades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #347 on: December 29, 2020, 05:28:39 AM »

I think that Georgia 2020 might be the first time a state has flipped, but the party who gained it did not flip any counties in that state, whereas the party who lost it did (Trump gained Burke County).
Logged
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #348 on: December 29, 2020, 10:11:53 AM »

Trump is the first person to lose despite winning the trifecta of TX/FL/OH.

There is a caveat...it was bound to happen sooner or later..it would've happened in 2000 if Gore won NH, 2004 if Kerry won CO/IA/NM, 2016 if Hillary won MI/PA/WI. Hell, Bob Dole could've won FL and OH and ever state he lost state by margins less than he lost those, and he still would've lost.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #349 on: December 30, 2020, 12:12:07 AM »

Trump is the first person to lose despite winning the trifecta of TX/FL/OH.

There is a caveat...it was bound to happen sooner or later..it would've happened in 2000 if Gore won NH, 2004 if Kerry won CO/IA/NM, 2016 if Hillary won MI/PA/WI. Hell, Bob Dole could've won FL and OH and ever state he lost state by margins less than he lost those, and he still would've lost.

Could've happened in 1960 if Nixon had better luck in TX.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 20  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.082 seconds with 11 queries.