(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[Gracile]

Both of the states that flipped from Gore to Bush in 2004 (Iowa and New Mexico) trended Democratic in that election and went from voting to the right of the nation in 2000 to voting to the left of the nation in 2004.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

South Carolina in the 1920's managed to be over 100 percentage points more Democratic than the national average for three times in a row.

[TDAS04]

Kamala Harris is the only Westerner ever to be on a Democratic ticket, unless you count the Southern Democratic ticket of 1860, which had Joseph Lane of Oregon as the VP candidate.

McGovern is the most recent Democrat from The West and was the last time until 2016 that The West overall trended leftwards of The East.

Nevada has been just as reliable as Ohio in determining the winner since 1912.

2016 was the first election since 1932 in which Pennsylvania and Minnesota voted to the right of the nation.

Trump is the first President to lose his home-state by double digits.

2012 was the first time since 1944 that the winner decreased both his Electoral and Popular count.



Jimmy Carter's election did not create ANY coattails in the Senate, in fact, incumbent Democrats actually lost more than they gained from vulnerable incumbent Republican. But this was saved by Democrats picking up more open seats from retiring Republicans than the reverse.

Jimmy Carter is also the first Democrat to win without Nevada since Grover Cleveland.

2004 was the first election Republicans won without a single Northeastern state, and if Ohio had gone to Kerry would've been the first time a Democrat won without The South.

2000 would've been the first time Democrats won with The South, if Al Gore had just picked Jeanne Shaheen to lock up New Hampshire.

1988 was the first time a Republican won without Iowa.

No...Romney lost Massachusetts by double digits (home state=state of residence at the time, not birth state).

To be fair, Romney was never President.  L. D. Smith's statement is still wrong, though, since Wilson lost New Jersey by double digits.

[Orser67]

The smallest winning margin by percentage in a state is, unsurprisingly, FL in 2000, where Bush won by less than 1/100th of one percent.

The smallest winning margin by vote total in a state is 4 votes; in 1832 Henry Clay defeated Andrew Jackson in MD by 19,160 votes to 19,156 votes. The runner-up is...also MD, where Theodore Roosevelt defeated Alton Parker by 51 votes (though Parker actually won most of the states electoral votes).

[kcguy]

The smallest winning margin by percentage in a state is, unsurprisingly, FL in 2000, where Bush won by less than 1/100th of one percent.

The smallest winning margin by vote total in a state is 4 votes; in 1832 Henry Clay defeated Andrew Jackson in MD by 19,160 votes to 19,156 votes. The runner-up is...also MD, where Theodore Roosevelt defeated Alton Parker by 51 votes (though Parker actually won most of the states electoral votes).

Any idea how far down each list New Mexico 2000 would rank?

[Orser67]

The smallest winning margin by percentage in a state is, unsurprisingly, FL in 2000, where Bush won by less than 1/100th of one percent.

The smallest winning margin by vote total in a state is 4 votes; in 1832 Henry Clay defeated Andrew Jackson in MD by 19,160 votes to 19,156 votes. The runner-up is...also MD, where Theodore Roosevelt defeated Alton Parker by 51 votes (though Parker actually won most of the states electoral votes).

Any idea how far down each list New Mexico 2000 would rank?

It's actually pretty far down there, in part because of lower populations in the 19th century (e.g. DE had a few elections decided by less than 1000 votes). Here's a non-exhaustive list of states decided by less than 200 votes:

Maryland 1832-4 votes
Maryland 1904-51 votes
New Hampshire 1916-56 votes
Maryland 1824-109 votes
Hawaii 1960-115 votes
California 1892-147 votes
Delaware 1832-166 votes
California 1912-174 votes

[morgankingsley]

Hillary Clinton has the most votes for a candidate who did not win the electoral vote

Coincidentally, Donald trump from the same election has also the most raw votes for a candidate who did not win the popular vote

[Chips]

If VA and WV remained united, Romney and Trump would've won the combined state by 30,000 and 88,000 votes respectively and VA would remain a swing state rather than a leaning Democratic one. Clinton would've also carried the combined two in 1996 by 46,000 votes as well as come within 23,000 votes of winning the united two in 1992.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure how interesting this is, but in 2012, the Republican National Convention (RNC) was held in Tampa, Florida, and the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was held in Charlotte, North Carolina. Nevertheless, Mitt Romney lost Florida and Barack Obama lost North Carolina, so the conventions were of no electoral aid to them in those states.

[forza nocta]

From 96-2016, the runner up in Arizona has gotten an exactly 44% vote share (not 44.0 exactly, but somewhere between 44.0-44-9)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It has never happened that Oregon voted Democratic and Washington voted Republican in the same election, although in 1912 Oregon voted D (Wilson) while Washington voted Progressive (Roosevelt).

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

It has never happened that Oregon voted Democratic and Washington voted Republican in the same election, although in 1912 Oregon voted D (Wilson) while Washington voted Progressive (Roosevelt).

This almost happened in 1976. Carter was just a few thousand votes away from winning Oregon.

[mianfei]

1956 is the last time OK voted more Dem than the national average. 1956 is also the last time MA and NY voted more Republican than the national average.

Oklahoma and New York have had opposite deviations relative to the nation in every single election since Oklahoma became a state.

Georgia and Vermont have only voted seven times for the same candidate since 1824.
Both voted only once for the same Democratic candidate. Guess whom.

Clinton 1992.  VT never voted Dem until 1992 (except 1964).  And since Goldwater swept the Deep South it cannot be 1964.   Dems have not won GA recently so it had to be Clinton 1992 or 1996.  I then checked and found it was 1992.

SC, MS and AL have never voted for the same Democratic candidate as VT.

AL and VT have voted for the same candidate just six times since 1824 – 1868, 1872, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. MS and VT have also voted for the same candidate only six times – 1840, 1872, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988.

[TDAS04]

2008 was the first presidential election in which Indiana was not more Republican than Kentucky (though they were just a point apart in the prior two elections).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Had Covington city Virginia and Allegheny County Virginia been a single unit, the County as a whole would have been Trumps 2nd biggest win out of any Obama-Trump Counties in the nation, after only Elliott County, Kentucky.

[mianfei]

Had Covington city Virginia and Allegheny County Virginia been a single unit, the County as a whole would have been Trumps 2nd biggest win out of any Obama-Trump Counties in the nation, after only Elliott County, Kentucky.

I was surprised by that, but it’s correct. Alleghany County had a swing akin to Pike County, Ohio, which in 2012 had seen the closest county result in the nation since 1992, but Trump won by 36 points.

One wonders why Obama did so well in Alleghany County and Covington. Unlike Elliott County (which was the most Democratic white county in the nation in 1972, 1984 and 1988) and to a large extent Pike County (which was the only Ohio County to vote for Stevenson in 1956), it does not have a powerful Democratic history, and it lies adjacent to West Virginia where a substantial of the exceedingly rapid 21st century GOP swing occurred before 2016.

[Calthrina950]

I did some work today for one of my projects, and found out some interesting facts regarding the 2016 election. As is well known, Hillary Clinton, despite winning the popular vote, won fewer counties and fewer congressional districts than Donald Trump. According to Daily Kos' data tables, she carried 205 districts, while Trump won 230. Of those 205 districts, Clinton carried 3 with more than 90% of the vote; 20 with more than 80% of the vote; 39 with more than 70% of the vote; 50 with more than 60% of the vote; 73 with more than 50% of the vote; and 20 with a plurality (less than 50% of the vote).

Trump, on his part, did not carry any districts with more than 90% of the vote, and only won one district with more than 80% of the vote (AL-04, represented by Rob Aderholt). He won 23 districts with more than 70% of the vote. However, Trump carried 73 districts with more than 60% of the vote and 106 districts with more than 50% of the vote, beating Clinton in both categories. He won an additional 27 with a plurality-beating Clinton in that category also.

I think this tells us the effects which gerrymandering can have on electoral results-as Trump was able to carry a broad category of districts with a majority of the vote, many of which were drawn by Republican legislatures. This is also shown by how Clinton carried fewer districts than Trump, whereas she may have won a majority with more fairly drawn maps. But on the other hand, it also tells us of the effects that geographical concentration and racial polarization can have-Clinton won many more districts with 70% or more of the vote than did Trump, and most of these were urban districts, either majority-minority or dominated by white liberals.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If Trump loses, it will only be the second time in history (and the first since 1892) that Republicans only had the White House for one term.

No Republican who's won the popular vote AND succeeded a Democrat has ever lost reelection or even come close to doing so.

[Mr. Smith]

The one year VT and GA both voted more Democratic than the nation is NOT the same as the one year both voted Democratic.

And there has yet to be a year where the two vote Democratic AND moreso than the nation.

[Calthrina950]

The one year VT and GA both voted more Democratic than the nation is NOT the same as the one year both voted Democratic.

And there has yet to be a year where the two vote Democratic AND moreso than the nation.

Is that year 1980? Carter won his home state against Reagan by 14%, and Reagan carried Vermont 44-38%, with Anderson getting 15% of the vote.

[Orser67]

Biden would be the second president born in PA, and the first whose primary state of residence is DE. Rhode Island, Connecticut, North Carolina, and South Carolina would be the last of Thirteen Colonies not to have a president whose primary residence was in the state, although Connecticut was the state of birth of George W. Bush, North Carolina was the state of birth for Polk and Andrew Johnson, and either North or South Carolina was the state of birth for Andrew Jackson. Rhode Island, Connecticut, and North Carolina have also never been the primary state of residence for a major party presidential nominee.

Biden would also be the first president whose residence is in a county in what is now the Greater Philadelphia MSA. Afaik he's the second major party presidential nominee to have spent a large portion of his life in Philadelphia or the surrounding area; the other is George McClellan, who was born and raised in Philadelphia. Afaik, three major party vice presidential nominees (other than Biden) have had a strong connection to Philadelphia, including George Dallas, who served as James K. Polk's VP. The other two are Richard Rush, who served as JQA's running mate in 1828, and Jared Ingersoll, who was DeWitt Clinton's de facto running mate in 1812.

[Mr. Smith]

The one year VT and GA both voted more Democratic than the nation is NOT the same as the one year both voted Democratic.

And there has yet to be a year where the two vote Democratic AND moreso than the nation.

Is that year 1980? Carter won his home state against Reagan by 14%, and Reagan carried Vermont 44-38%, with Anderson 15% of the vote.

Yes.

[mianfei]

In 1972, George McGovern exceeded his national percentage vote share of 37.52 percent by 4% or more in just eight states.

In 1924, John W. Davis doubled his national percentage vote share of 28.82 percent in nine states.

[Orser67]

Biden has a chance to become the fifth individual to win the popular vote by 10 million+ votes. The four who have done so:

Nixon 72: 17.995 million
Reagan 84: 16.9 million
LBJ 64: 15.95 million
FDR 36: 11.1 million
(Eisenhower 56: 9.551 million)
(Obama 08: 9.55 million)

Pretty impressive that Nixon still has the record

[Mr. Smith]

2020:

Florida votes far to the right after spending most elections at a consistent R+3 angle.