(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[Calthrina950]

I just found out that Maine voted for Obama by 16 in 2012. Very surprising.

Obama's 2008 performance in Maine was similarly impressive, and Susan Collins' 22-pt. victory that year was even more so, showing the level of crossover appeal which she once enjoyed.

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1980, Carter would have carried MA if every Barry Commoner voter had voted for Carter instead.
In 1984, Reagan would have carried MN if every Lyndon LaRouche voter had voted Reagan instead.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If every Nader voter in 1996 voted for Dole instead, Nevada would have been exactly tied.

[lfromnj]

I just found out that Maine voted for Obama by 16 in 2012. Very surprising.

Obama's 2008 performance in Maine was similarly impressive, and Susan Collins' 22-pt. victory that year was even more so, showing the level of crossover appeal which she once enjoyed.

2008 was decent and similar to upper midwestern states like wisconsin and Michigan, solid margins of victory but unlike in the previous two he held his ground in Maine because Romney also managed to lose votes in Maine from Mccain because he was that bad of a candidate for anything outside burbs.

[morgankingsley]

A loss of about 14000 votes in Hawaii and Ohio would have made Jimmy Carter the second candidate in history to obtain a absolute majority of the popular vote and still lose. The first being in 1876, one hundred years prior, with a fellow democrat, who won a majority of the southern states as well, with one state deciding his defeat compared to two with Carter, and both having the major state that decided their elections being decided by less than one percent, and in both elections, Ohio was one of the two closest states.

If something this similar happens again in 2076, then I will coin this as the "76 curse" along with my "Massachusetts curse" where a Massachusetts candidate challenges the incumbent party and loses (which if it happens this year with Warren will be the fourth time in 32 years)

*Also just realized in both years, the republican got 48 percent

[morgankingsley]

Also I realized something kind of mindblowing to myself but probably eye rolling to anybody else: How rare it used to be for two consecutive term presidencies.

We have Washington, jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Jackson. Five of our first seven

Then we had Lincoln get a second term, but died, so doesnt count

Grant served two full terms, the first time in 40 years

Then hayes, Garfield and Arthur happened

You get Cleveland, Harrison, and Cleveland. So he served two full terms but not consecutive, so doesnt count

McKinley and Roosevely combined served three terms, but both only served one term and several months, so doesnt count, even when McKinley was elected twice

Wilson was elected twice, and served both, so he counts, first time in 40 years

Harding died, Coolidge got one term plus several months, Hoover got one term, Roosevelt got three and several months, and Truman got one and several months

Eisenhower was elected twice, and served both, so hes our first two term in again 40 years, that's three presidents in 120 years who served exactly two full terms

Kennedy died three years in, Johnson served five years, Nixon was elected twice but didnt serve both, Ford wasn't elected, and Carter only once

Then we have Reagan, who was the first to serve two full terms in 28 years, so that's four out of 148 years

then we finally got a streak going with Clinton, Bush, Obama, and maybe even trump.

So out of our 45 presidencies, only 12 were two full consecutive terms, which is less than thirty percent, and eight of which have been either crammed at the start or the end of our current history, with only four extra thrown in between

[538Electoral]

Bush lost Independents in 2004 but Romney won Independents in 2012. Very shocking to me.

[TDAS04]

What I find funny about 1948 is that while Strom Thurmond received a mere 2.4% of the PV nationwide, he was the only candidate that year to obtain >70% in any state; he accomplished that in three-MS (87%), AL (80%), and SC (72%).

[morgankingsley]

Until 2016, Henry Wallace was the only person to get in fourth place and still get over a million votes

[morgankingsley]

I always was intriguied by the fact that Obama was the first president since FDR to do worse in both popular and electoral vote in his re-election, while also being the first since Reagan to win a majority both times

[morgankingsley]

Also if Trump wins election this year, and loses the popular vote, he will be the first president to ever win two terms despite never winning the popular vote

[DINGO Joe]

What I find funny about 1948 is that while Strom Thurmond received a mere 2.4% of the PV nationwide, he was the only candidate that year to obtain >70% in any state; he accomplished that in three-MS (87%), AL (80%), and SC (72%).

Well, those states weren't exactly democracies

[538Electoral]

Also if Trump wins election this year, and loses the popular vote, he will be the first president to ever win two terms despite never winning the popular vote

Trump also would become the first fourth in a row re-elected president.

[brucejoel99]

Despite Secretaries of States (rather than Vice Presidents) having once been seen as the natural successors to the Presidency, Hillary Clinton was actually the first Secretary of State (former or current) to be nominated by a major political party since the Republicans nominated James G. Blaine 132 years earlier in 1884.

[morgankingsley]

If carter won in 1980, he would have had a extremely high chance of being the only president to win the popular vote the first time but not the second

[morgankingsley]

Donald Trump in 2016 was the first person to win the presidency, but lose their home state since Woodrow Wilson, exactly one hundred years prior

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1984, an adult in Minnesota was more likely to vote for Reagan than an adult elsewhere.

Nationwide, voter turnout was 53.1%, with 21.5% voting Mondale and 31.2% Reagan.
In Minnesota, voter turnout was 68.8%, with 34.2% voting Mondale and 34.1% Reagan.

In 1984, as in 2016, MN had the highest voter turnout of any state.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Every time that Arizona voted Democratic, the following states also voted Democratic:
Nevada - New Mexico - Florida - Missouri - Arkansas - Tennessee - Kentucky - (since 1960) Hawaii

California, Washington and Louisiana have also never voted Republican while Arizona voted Democratic (but California and Washington voted for Roosevelt in 1912 and Louisiana voted for Thurmond in 1948).

There's a high probability that this year (2020) the string will be broken for Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Louisiana. A small chance it gets broken in Florida also, in my opinion.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Donald Trump is most certainly the first major presidential candidate in history to receive more votes in Richmond County, NY (Staten Island) than in New York County, NY (Manhattan).
He received 36,000 (!) more votes in Staten Island than in Manhattan.



Donald Trump in New York County received...
-barely one fifth of the votes of Eisenhower in 1952, who set the Republican record (although he almost tied himself in 1956).
-barely half of the votes of Goldwater in 1964.
-less than half of the votes of Hoover in 1932.
-less votes than Henry Wallace in 1948.
-less votes than Robert LaFollette in 1924.
-actually the least votes for a major party presidential candidate since the Bronx was detached from the county in 1914 (i.e. since the county coincides with Manhattan).



I found a site that lists buildings. In Manhattan there is apparently around one building higher than 100 feet for every twenty-three Trump voters.

[Alcibiades]

Between 1928 and 1988 (not including these years) every losing Democratic presidential candidate was a Midwesterner.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In "heart of coal country" McDowell County, WV, Trump took less than half the raw votes of ALF LANDON IN 1936.

The history of population growth and decline of McDowell County is so weird that the record of votes for a Republican candidate is 16,000 for... Herbert Hoover in 1932.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Between 1928 and 1988 (not including these years) every losing Democratic presidential candidate was a Midwesterner.

Guess you’re not counting losing Democratic incumbents?

[Alcibiades]

Between 1928 and 1988 (not including these years) every losing Democratic presidential candidate was a Midwesterner.

Guess you’re not counting losing Democratic incumbents?

Ah yes. Forgot about Carter. Let’s say candidates who never won.

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1980, if every Barry Commoner voter in MA had voted for Carter instead, Carter would have won MA (but still lost hugely to Reagan, 475-63 EV's).

In 1984, if every Lyndon LaRouche voter in MN had voted for Reagan instead, Reagan would have won all 50 states.

[South Dakota Democrat]

McGovern is the most recent Democrat from The West and was the last time until 2016 that The West overall trended leftwards of The East.

Nevada has been just as reliable as Ohio in determining the winner since 1912.

2016 was the first election since 1932 in which Pennsylvania and Minnesota voted to the right of the nation.

Trump is the first President to lose his home-state by double digits.

2012 was the first time since 1944 that the winner decreased both his Electoral and Popular count.



Jimmy Carter's election did not create ANY coattails in the Senate, in fact, incumbent Democrats actually lost more than they gained from vulnerable incumbent Republican. But this was saved by Democrats picking up more open seats from retiring Republicans than the reverse.

Jimmy Carter is also the first Democrat to win without Nevada since Grover Cleveland.

2004 was the first election Republicans won without a single Northeastern state, and if Ohio had gone to Kerry would've been the first time a Democrat won without The South.

2000 would've been the first time Democrats won with The South, if Al Gore had just picked Jeanne Shaheen to lock up New Hampshire.

1988 was the first time a Republican won without Iowa.

No...Romney lost Massachusetts by double digits (home state=state of residence at the time, not birth state).