(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.
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  (Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.
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Author Topic: (Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.  (Read 59722 times)
twenty42
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« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2017, 03:15:24 PM »

Since DC residents were granted the right to vote for President, 1968 is the only Presidential election in which one or more states gave a lower percentage of their vote to the GOP candidate than DC. (MS and AL).


On the topic of DC, I find it amusing (though utterly pedantic) that it trended Republican in 2008.
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rhody
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« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2017, 09:45:37 PM »

Not sure if this is the right spot for this, but I read once (unsure if it is true) that the single most support a Republican Presidential candidate has ever gotten from a county in history was Barry Goldwater in Holmes County, Mississippi, 1964 (96.6%). If this is true, this is pretty ironic because Holmes hadn't voted for a Republican since 1872 and hasn't since 1964.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2017, 04:53:11 AM »

(Sorry if already mentioned)

George W. Bush was the first Republican to win without Illinois and Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to win without Texas.
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jfern
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« Reply #28 on: August 01, 2017, 05:07:35 AM »

Since DC residents were granted the right to vote for President, 1968 is the only Presidential election in which one or more states gave a lower percentage of their vote to the GOP candidate than DC. (MS and AL).


On the topic of DC, I find it amusing (though utterly pedantic) that it trended Republican in 2008.

That's because a uniform swing model is dumb in that case.
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« Reply #29 on: August 01, 2017, 06:09:47 AM »

Georgia and Vermont have only voted seven times for the same candidate since 1824.
Both voted only once for the same Democratic candidate. Guess whom.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: August 01, 2017, 01:30:15 PM »

Georgia and Vermont have only voted seven times for the same candidate since 1824.
Both voted only once for the same Democratic candidate. Guess whom.

Clinton 1992.  VT never voted Dem until 1992 (except 1964).  And since Goldwater swept the Deep South it cannot be 1964.   Dems have not won GA recently so it had to be Clinton 1992 or 1996.  I then checked and found it was 1992.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: August 01, 2017, 01:40:43 PM »

Not sure if this is the right spot for this, but I read once (unsure if it is true) that the single most support a Republican Presidential candidate has ever gotten from a county in history was Barry Goldwater in Holmes County, Mississippi, 1964 (96.6%). If this is true, this is pretty ironic because Holmes hadn't voted for a Republican since 1872 and hasn't since 1964.

Very interesting.  I looked up the election history of Holmes County and found out that in 1956 there was a Southern Unpledged Delegate movement just like in 1960 although somewhat less successful.  Since 1956 was not even close as compared to 1960 and the Unpledged Delegate movement was fairly successful in MS and AL in 1960 I never bothered to look in detail at 1956 Deep South state results.

It seems things were never the same in the Deep South after 1948.  In 1952 there was a surge of support for the GOP in the Deep South which I assume was a continuation of the 1948 Dixecrat revolt.  And in 1956 and 1960 that revolt manifested itself in the Unpledged Delegate movement. Holmes County  vote for the GOP ranged around 100 votes until 1952 when it surged to 47.8%.  In 1956 it collapsed again  when most of that surge went to the Unpledged Delegate.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: August 01, 2017, 01:51:15 PM »

2000 and 1916 for the Mainland 48 states are nearly mirror image results of each other with the exception of 6 states.  WA CA NM went Dem both years and SD IN WV went GOP both years.
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twenty42
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« Reply #33 on: August 01, 2017, 03:35:19 PM »

There are a couple oddball aspects to FDR's elections.

Fifteen out of 48 states swung Republican in 1936, despite the nation as a whole swinging 6.6% Democratic.

The nation swung 14.4% Republican in 1940. This is the fourth-largest national swing against an incumbent president in US history, behind only 1840, 1912, and 1932.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #34 on: August 01, 2017, 05:52:48 PM »

Not sure if this is the right spot for this, but I read once (unsure if it is true) that the single most support a Republican Presidential candidate has ever gotten from a county in history was Barry Goldwater in Holmes County, Mississippi, 1964 (96.6%). If this is true, this is pretty ironic because Holmes hadn't voted for a Republican since 1872 and hasn't since 1964.
Excellent statistic (if sad, because it reflects extreme voter intimidation of Blacks). I believe Noxubee County, MS also voted 96.6% GOP in 1964-- and several other MS counties (about 15 I believe) were 95% or more GOP in '64.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #35 on: August 01, 2017, 05:58:52 PM »

2000 and 1916 for the Mainland 48 states are nearly mirror image results of each other with the exception of 6 states.  WA CA NM went Dem both years and SD IN WV went GOP both years.
Very interesting; I believe 1956 and 1964 were similarly inverted.
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« Reply #36 on: August 01, 2017, 07:31:39 PM »

Arizona voted in the two elections that were mainly about African Americans' rights (1964 and 2008) for the Republican candidates as it was both's home state.

Arizona would probably have gone Republican, too, had it already existed in 1860 and 1864, given California's and Oregon's voting behavior.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #37 on: August 02, 2017, 01:36:54 PM »

Dewey won Ohio against FDR in 1944 and then lost it in the election that he was supposed to win.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #38 on: August 02, 2017, 06:30:13 PM »

I'm gonna be posting facts as I find them here, so forgive me if these facts have nothing to do with each other.

Trump was the first Republican win the presidency without winning:
  • Charleston County, SC, since 1956
  • Anne Arundel County, MD since 1924
  • Fort Bend County, TX since 1928
  • Orange County, CA since CA was founded in 1850

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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #39 on: August 02, 2017, 10:29:17 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2017, 08:06:45 PM by Ἅιδης »

County ties:

Ferry County, Washington, in the 1988 Presidential General Election:



Boone County, Kentucky, also had a tie in the 1976 Presidential General Election.



Pragmatic Populist found two further ties in the 1992 election.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #40 on: August 02, 2017, 10:31:40 PM »

The 2016 senatorial elections marked the first and only election where the winning party in every Senate election mirrored the winning party for their state in the Presidential election.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #41 on: August 02, 2017, 10:47:40 PM »

The last three elections in which Ohio voted for the loser are 1892, 1944, and 1960.
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« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2017, 01:17:04 AM »

A simple as amazing, but underestimated and overlooked fact:
Out of the last seven elections, the Democrats won the popular vote six times.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #43 on: August 03, 2017, 11:04:02 AM »

The last county to have a tie between two candidates was Ferry County, Washington, in the 1988 Presidential General Election.


Not quite. In 1992, there were two tied counties:


Morris County, KS (between Bush and Perot)

Ware County, GA (Between Clinton and Bush)
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: August 03, 2017, 05:57:00 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2017, 05:59:16 PM by jaichind »

The only examples I can find where the incumbent party lost power to the opposition party AND the opposition party won a state in the prior election and lost the said state to the defeated incumbent party are

1848  OH (Dems won from the Whigs  which won in 1844 despite losing power to Whigs overall)
1884  NV CA (GOP won from Dem which won in 1880 despite losing power to Dem overall)
1896  NE WY SD MT WA (Dem won from GOP which won in 1892 despite losing power to GOP overall)

Of course on can argue the the Dem party of 1896 is a very different party from the Dem party of 1892.

I can find no examples of this after 1896.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #45 on: August 03, 2017, 08:04:30 PM »

The only examples I can find where the incumbent party lost power to the opposition party AND the opposition party won a state in the prior election and lost the said state to the defeated incumbent party are

1848  OH (Dems won from the Whigs  which won in 1844 despite losing power to Whigs overall)
1884  NV CA (GOP won from Dem which won in 1880 despite losing power to Dem overall)
1896  NE WY SD MT WA (Dem won from GOP which won in 1892 despite losing power to GOP overall)

Of course on can argue the the Dem party of 1896 is a very different party from the Dem party of 1892.

I can find no examples of this after 1896.


That would almost have happened in 2008.
Had Kerry conquered Ohio, Bush would have lost, while gaining Iowa and New Mexico.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: August 03, 2017, 08:14:39 PM »


Morris County, KS (between Bush and Perot)

Morris County is truly a jewel, as third-party counties are rare anyway, and a tie between a major party and a third party is like a coin ship in Super Mario Bros 3. 💎💰
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #47 on: August 07, 2017, 06:34:18 PM »

The last time the Dems won a majority of counties was 1976. Also, John Kerry in 2004 won more counties in losing the PV (583) than Clinton in 2016 did in winning the PV (490).
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Canis
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« Reply #48 on: August 08, 2017, 09:12:48 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2018, 06:57:13 PM by Sensible-Progressive »


This is the 2016 electoral map if you only count Johnson and Stein votes (Nebraska and Maine should be yellow as well but the map won't let me)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #49 on: August 08, 2017, 09:34:01 AM »

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