(Thread) Interesting factoids about presidential elections.

[morgankingsley]

If Virginia and West Virginia never split, Trump's raw vote margin in West Virginia would have been enough to overcome the margin of defeat in Virginia, granting Trump the 13 electoral votes of Virginia

[Gracile]

New Hampshire is the only state where Donald Trump won the most populous county (Hillsborough) and lost the state as a whole.

[Calthrina950]

If Virginia and West Virginia never split, Trump's raw vote margin in West Virginia would have been enough to overcome the margin of defeat in Virginia, granting Trump the 13 electoral votes of Virginia

West Virginia would have handed Virginia to Mitt Romney in 2012 as well, if I am not mistaken. Ironically, Bill Clinton would have won the unified state in 1996, because of his strength in West Virginia (which he won 52-37% over Bob Dole that year). Dole won Virginia itself 47-45%. Jimmy Carter also would have won the unified Virginia in 1976.

[SInNYC]

New Hampshire is the only state where Donald Trump won the most populous county (Hillsborough) and lost the state as a whole.

Not only that but he won the two most populous counties in NH (Hillsborough, Rockingham)! And Rockingham by 6 points (though Hillsborough was basically a tie).

[Calthrina950]

New Hampshire is the only state where Donald Trump won the most populous county (Hillsborough) and lost the state as a whole.

Not only that but he won the two most populous counties in NH (Hillsborough, Rockingham)! And Rockingham by 6 points (though Hillsborough was basically a tie).

The county map in New Hampshire (in terms of counties won by each party) was also exactly the same in both 2000 and 2016, though Clinton did much better in Grafton County than Gore, which is why she was able to very narrowly win the state, while Gore narrowly lost it.

[morgankingsley]

If Virginia and West Virginia never split, Trump's raw vote margin in West Virginia would have been enough to overcome the margin of defeat in Virginia, granting Trump the 13 electoral votes of Virginia

West Virginia would have handed Virginia to Mitt Romney in 2012 as well, if I am not mistaken. Ironically, Bill Clinton would have won the unified state in 1996, because of his strength in West Virginia (which he won 52-37% over Bob Dole that year). Dole won Virginia itself 47-45%. Jimmy Carter also would have won the unified Virginia in 1976.

You are right, it would tip Virginia to Romney. Interesting how there are four times when Virginia is tipped because of West, but I don't know of a single time west gets tipped because of regular virginia

[Sumner 1868]

You can really see the affect of men going off to fight WWII in some of the least populous counties in the nation. Especially with the Democratic vote.

Loving County, Texas

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 98 (82.4%)
Wendell Willkie: 21 (17.7%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 60 (71.4%)
Thomas Dewey: 18 (21.4%)

King County, Texas

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 266 (92%)
Wendell Willkie: 23 (8%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 228 (89.1%)
Thomas Dewey: 13 (5.1%)

Kenedy County, Texas

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 38 (35.9%)
Wendell Willkie: 68 (64.2%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 16 (19.5%)
Thomas Dewey: 60 (73.2%)

Blaine County, Nebraska

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 311 (40.7%)
Wendell Willkie: 454 (59.4%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 248 (40.4%)
Thomas Dewey: 366 (59.6%)

McPherson County, Nebraska

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 164 (28.4%)
Wendell Willkie: 414 (71.6%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 118 (27.6%)
Thomas Dewey: 310 (72.7%)

Petroleum County, Montana

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 316 (50.1%)
Thomas Dewey: 313 (49.6%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 225 (46.8%)
Thomas Dewey: 253 (52.6%)

Loup County, Nebraska

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 289 (34.9%)
Thomas Dewey: 539 (65.1%)

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 182 (27.2%)
Thomas Dewey: 488 (72.8%)

[Orser67]

Here are the elections where a party won without winning a single state in a particular Census Region (parentheses for winning party):

Northeast: 2004 (R)
South: 1824 (Adams), 1860 (R), 1880 (R), 1888 (R)
Midwest (since 1816): 1824 (Adams), 1848 (W)
West (since 1860): 1884 (D)

If you subtract DE, DC, MD, WV, and KY (the border states) from the South, then you also get:
1796 (F), 1896 (R), 1900 (R), 1904 (R), 1908 (R), 1920 (R), 1924 (R), 1928 (R)

[Orser67]

Following up from my last post, here are the elections where a party won a presidential election and swept a particular Census Region (parentheses for winning party). I didn't count 1789, 1792, or 1820, where the winning candidate was basically unopposed.

Northeast: 1860 (R), 1872 (R), 1896-1908 (R), 1920-1924 (R), 1952-1956 (R), 1964 (D), 1984 (R), 1992-1996 (D), 2008-2012 (D)
South: 1884 (D), 1892 (D), 1912 (D), 1936-1944 (D)
Midwest (since 1816): 1816 (DR), 1828-1832 (D), 1852 (D), 1864-1868 (R), 1904 (R), 1920 (R), 1928 (R), 1952 (R), 1964 (D), 1972 (R)
West (since 1860): 1860-1864 (R), 1872-1876 (R), 1888 (R), 1904 (R), 1920-1928 (R), 1932-1936 (D), 1972 (R), 1984 (R)

[TDAS04]

The only Republicans ever to break 80% in any state?  Goldwater in Mississippi and McKinley (1896) in Vermont.

[Calthrina950]

The only Republicans ever to break 80% in any state?  Goldwater in Mississippi and McKinley (1896) in Vermont.

Johnson also broke 80% in Rhode Island in 1964, which is the most recent presidential election in which a candidate has received at least 80% of the vote within a state (not counting the District of Columbia). There was at least one state that voted 80% Democratic in every election from 1888 to 1944. In 1932, Roosevelt got over 80% of the vote in Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas, and over 90% in four other states-Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

[Skill and Chance]

If Virginia and West Virginia never split, Trump's raw vote margin in West Virginia would have been enough to overcome the margin of defeat in Virginia, granting Trump the 13 electoral votes of Virginia

West Virginia would have handed Virginia to Mitt Romney in 2012 as well, if I am not mistaken. Ironically, Bill Clinton would have won the unified state in 1996, because of his strength in West Virginia (which he won 52-37% over Bob Dole that year). Dole won Virginia itself 47-45%. Jimmy Carter also would have won the unified Virginia in 1976.

You are right, it would tip Virginia to Romney. Interesting how there are four times when Virginia is tipped because of West, but I don't know of a single time west gets tipped because of regular virginia

1916 works.  It's rare historically because VA had the Deep South version of strict poll tax prior to 1964 (prior to 1966 in state level elections), so there were shockingly few votes despite the larger population.  From 1968-present, it has generally been decided by close margins, while WV basically went straight from Dem landslides to GOP landslides.

It's likely to happen in 2020 unless WV is like 75% Trump.

[SingingAnalyst]

Since 1924, the only time KY and TN voted differently was 1952-- but the gross difference in margin that year between the two states was just 0.35%-- one of the smallest to date.

[here2view]

1972 is the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic nominee for president is no longer alive. 2008 is the most recent presidential election in which the Republican nominee for president is no longer alive, a difference of 36 years.

1988 is the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic nominee for Vice President is no loner alive. 1996 is the most recent presidential election in which the Republican nominee for Vice President is no longer alive, a difference of only 8 years.

The losing tickets of the four most recent elections (2016, 2012, 2008, and 2004) had a Vice Presidential nominee who was younger than the Presidential nominee. The winning tickets in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000 each had a Vice Presidential nominee who was older than the Presidential nominee)

[SingingAnalyst]

1972 is the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic nominee for president is no longer alive. 2008 is the most recent presidential election in which the Republican nominee for president is no longer alive, a difference of 36 years.

1988 is the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic nominee for Vice President is no loner alive. 1996 is the most recent presidential election in which the Republican nominee for Vice President is no longer alive, a difference of only 8 years.

The losing tickets of the four most recent elections (2016, 2012, 2008, and 2004) had a Vice Presidential nominee who was younger than the Presidential nominee. The winning tickets in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000 each had a Vice Presidential nominee who was older than the Presidential nominee)

Since Jan. 5, 2019, we have had three former Presidents or major party Presidential candidates who are 91 or older (Dole, Carter, Mondale)-- I'm not sure that's ever been the case. I hope all three live, like Alf Landon, to 100.

[Kevinstat]

If Virginia and West Virginia never split, Trump's raw vote margin in West Virginia would have been enough to overcome the margin of defeat in Virginia, granting Trump the 13 electoral votes of Virginia

West Virginia would have handed Virginia to Mitt Romney in 2012 as well, if I am not mistaken. Ironically, Bill Clinton would have won the unified state in 1996, because of his strength in West Virginia (which he won 52-37% over Bob Dole that year). Dole won Virginia itself 47-45%. Jimmy Carter also would have won the unified Virginia in 1976.

You are right, it would tip Virginia to Romney. Interesting how there are four times when Virginia is tipped because of West, but I don't know of a single time west gets tipped because of regular virginia

1916 works.  It's rare historically because VA had the Deep South version of strict poll tax prior to 1964 (prior to 1966 in state level elections), so there were shockingly few votes despite the larger population.  From 1968-present, it has generally been decided by close margins, while WV basically went straight from Dem landslides to GOP landslides.

It's likely to happen in 2020 unless WV is like 75% Trump.

Also,

Virginia 1988:
George H.W. Bush 1,309,162 (59.74%)
Michael Dukakis 859,799 (39.23%)
Other 22,648 (1.03%)

West Virginia 1988:
Michael Dukakis 341,016 (52.20%)
George H.W. Bush 310,065 (47.46%)
Other 2,230 (0.34%)

1792-1863 Virginia 1988:
George H.W. Bush 1,619,227 (56.92%)
Michael Dukakis 1,200,815 (42.21%)
Other 24,878 (0.87%)

Virginia also outvoted W.V. in 1992 (in terms of raw vote margin; it would actually have been quite close; I'll do that next).

[Kevinstat]

Virginia 1992:
George H.W. Bush 1,150,517 (44.57%)
Bill Clinton 1,038,650 (40.59%)
Ross Perot 348,639 (13.63%)
Other 20,859 (0.82%)

West Virginia 1992:
Bill Clinton 331,001 (48.41%)
George H.W. Bush 241,974 (35.39%)
Ross Perot 108,829 (15.92%)
Other 1,907 (0.28%)

1792-1863 Virginia 1992:
George H.W. Bush 1,392,491 (42.95%)
Bill Clinton 1,369,651 (42.24%)
Ross Perot 457,468 (14.11%)
Other 22,766 (0.70%)

Kentucky 1992:
Bill Clinton 665,104 (44.55%)
George H.W. Bush 617,178 (41.34%)
Ross Perot 203,944 (13.66%)
Other 6,674 (0.45%)

Pre-1792 Virginia 1992:
Bill Clinton 2,034,755 (42.97%)
George H.W. Bush 2,009,669 (42.44%)
Ross Perot 661,412 (13.97%)
Other 29,440 (0.62%)

[Kevinstat]

Virginia would have also outvoted West Virginia (in raw vote totals) in 2008 (but not W.V. and Kentucky or even Kentucky just by itself), but I'm tired of composing all this.

[lfromnj]

A total of 7 different Townships in Fairfield County CT voted for Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016, including 1 that had never before voted for a Democrat.

Cleveland won Darien in 88, are you talking about New Canaan?

[lfromnj]

I'm a little curious and I figured some people on here have more time than I do.. Were there any Gore/Bush/Obama/Romney/Trump counties? If so, what states were they concentrated in?

Jefferson County, WV comes close, having narrowly gone for Bush in 2000

Quite a few in IL, I count 5
Macon county IL.
Gallatin IL
Pulaski
the two north of Madison county IL.

[morgankingsley]

Buren in 1848 and Perot in 1992 are the only two cases I can think of where a candidate won no states but got over ten percent of the vote, although Douglas got extremely close to doing so in 1860

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I just realized recently that despite losing badly, Dukakis won two states that hadn’t gone Dem since 1964-Iowa and Oregon, and also a state that hadn’t gone Dem since 1968-Washington. Dukakis couldn’t hold onto Maryland which Carter won in ‘80, but he could win Ford states?

And yes, I know there are explanations for MD (Willie Horton) and IA (farm crisis). What about WA and OR?

I’m guessing Dukakis also won a lot of counties that hadn’t gone Dem since ‘64. Not bad for someone who lost, though Al Smith and Barry Goldwater also broke new ground.

[OBD]

I just found out that Maine voted for Obama by 16 in 2012. Very surprising.

[TDAS04]

Buren in 1848 and Perot in 1992 are the only two cases I can think of where a candidate won no states but got over ten percent of the vote, although Douglas got extremely close to doing so in 1860

I think the only other example is Bell in 1860.

Bell carried 3 states.

[gottsu]

Maiden name of wife of George H.W. Bush was Pierce. Barbara Bush (nee Pierce) was directly related to Franklin Pierce. Both Franklin Pierce and George H.W. Bush were presidents. Pierce was 14th president and Bush was 41st.