World War I

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's my view on what would have happened had Wilson followed a course of true neutrality instead of the pro-Allied Powers pseudo-neutrality that he followed.  Without American loans or purchases of American arms, the Allies would have realized by 1916 that they weren't going to win the war on the battlefield.  However, Germany is hurting enough that it is in its interests to seek peace as well.  A likely peace settlement would see Europe's boundaries largely unaffected save in the balkans where Montenegro and Serbia would have to give up their gains in the First and Second Balkan Wars earlier in the decade to Albania and Bulgaria.  Serbia and Montenegro would receive a status similar to that of Belgium and the Netherlands as a small country that all the major powers have pledged to go to war over if someone else violates their neutrality.  The Ottomans regain the Dodecanese from Italy.  Germany  would have gained territories in Africa, with most of French Equitorial Africa joining Kamerun (save for a small portion along the banks of the Congo being joined to Belgium Congo) and South Africa ceding Walfish Bay to German South West Africa.  The Czar likely would have had to cede Poland to the Central Powers.  Considering that most of the fighting took place on Allied territiry, I can't see reparations as being large, even if they were exacted.

Of course it is possible that the Allies would have refused terms sch as these.  In that event, the war in east would have largely proceeded ilargely as it did in reality until the Czar abdicated in 1917.  The Kerensky government having fewer prospects of eventual victory would likely have signed a peace with the Central powers, but would have to cede the  quasi-independence of Finland and Lithuania as well as Poland as well as cede Bessarabia to Rumania (with the Allies unable to present as good an inducement for entering the war on the Allied side as they did in OTL, Rumania likely joins the Central Powers in 1916.) and the Transcaucus region to the Ottomans.  Italy likely gets knocked out of the war in 1918 due to the inability of France and Britain to spare the troops that kept Italy from defeat in OTL.  Likely Italy has to cede its entire colonial empire back to the Ottomans from who they nominally had acquired most of it from.  The desire to restore friendship with Britain is likely to lead to Geramny to not be too harsh with France, but the Germans will take Belfort and a good deal more of France's colonial empire than what I described above.  Germany does not have the naval force with which to defeat the Royal Navy in 1919 and war-weariness will be affecting the homefront even as it did in OTL.  So in exchange for peace, reparations will be kept at a minimum if at all.

In short, I'd expect a Central Power victory to see territiory to change hands, but the crushing effects of reparations would be kept to a minimum, enabling grudges to be eased sooner.  Of course, Europe will still have the fun of dealing the effects of the inevitable collapse of the Habsburg Empire, which potentially sparks WW II, and the Armenians will be even less numerous than they are in OTL, so I don't see American non-entry in The Great War as being a solution for all of our problems, but three of the great problems of the 20th century would either not have occurred or been greatly delayed.
1.  Lenin would not have the opportunity to come to power in Russia.
2.  The Shoah would not have happened.
3.  The current turmoil in the Middle East would not exist.  Not only would the Zionists been less successful in emmigrating to the area with it remaining in Ottoman control, they would have had less incentive to do so.  In short, there would be no State of Israel to serve as a focus of dispute.