What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election)

[MT Treasurer]

it's conceivable for Tester and Donnelly to win by wider margins in 2018 than they did in 2012, but the chances of that aren't really calculable until we see their opponents and how (un)friendly one thinks the national environment will be for the GOP.

I think that's a stretch. Bayh (who was like... the most popular, unbeatable IN Democrat ever) lost by 10 points in 2016 after being up double digits in initial polling. I don't see Messer or Rokita doing worse than freaking Mourdock, who talked about rape and ran in a massive Democratic wave year.

Tester isn't going to win by more than 5, I'm 99.9% sure of that. I fail to see why so many people here believe he is incredibly popular or has so much crossover appeal? His voting record isn't very moderate either.

Even if Heller wins in 2018, he'll be gone after 2024 for sure, so I don't think spending millions to save this seat in 2018 is worth it in the end. But maybe NV will buck the trend again, who knows.

[jamestroll]

A lot of these Democratic Senators are remnants of the past. The cycles of 2010 and 2014 destroyed a lot of them especially in deep red states and many survived in 2012 by being lucky, running great campaigns or a combination of both.

So I understand why many are suspicious of them holding on even in a poor Republican climate of 2018 and how the anti Democratic trend in those states may be too much to over come.

But it would be interesting to see how many of these deep Republican state Democratic Senators hold on under a Republican midterm versus a Democratic midterm.

I have not been posting as much lately as it seems way to early and too many unknowns to make any accurate assumptions.

Recent midterms tend to favor the GOP and the party out of power at the same time.

1994= Gop wipe out.

1998= GOP over reach allowed Democrats to make modest house gains and break even in the senate iirc.

2002= Bush popularity allowed gop to make modest house gains and a net gain of one in the us senate.

2006= Bush was very unpopular and Democrats were able to net 31 seats. Decent number but still pales in comparison to gop waves. To be fair though, Democrats held many Bush districts so their playing field was not as great.

2010= Huge GOP wave under a Obama who was unpopular but not as unpopular as Bush.

2014= GOP performed very well in the US Senate races and gained 14 seats in the house but gains were limited to to almost being maxed out.

2018= Democrats net gain 30 seats but lose two Senate seats???

2018 will come down to how favorable the national environment will be for Democrats. Some of us will be either really right or really wrong. But with Trump already more unpopular than Bush '06, Clinton '94, Reagan '82, and Obama '10 and '14 only five months in, I would not be wiling to bet on a big GOP Senate gain.

oh yea I just just saying that recent midterms have seemed to favor the GOP and Party out of power at same time and with so much time and unknowns until November 2018 it is fruitless to argue non stop.

[MATTROSE94]

Democrats pick up Arizona (Jeff Flake gets primaried by Kelli Ward), Nevada, and Texas, whereas the Republicans only pick up West Virginia.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hard to say at this time, but I went with Missouri, Nevada, and Arizona, in that order. McCaskill isn't particularly popular, is the last elected Democrat to statewide office, and the state took another sharp right in 2016. The factors that could save her though are Jason Kander's strong showing in 2016, incumbancy, and the national environment.

I put Heller next because his popularity is about on par with McCaskill, Nevada voted for Hillary Clinton, and national environment. Though Democrats don't have a particularly strong bench here.

Flake is probably also in danger because he's a Trump critic, and never endorsed him, which might turn off Trump voters and a primary will probably damage him if not lose him renomination. Add to the fact that Arizona is trending D, and he could be in trouble. The only factor that could save him is that Democrats don't have a particularly good bench here either. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema appears to be dragging her feet on whether to run.