2020 without COVID-19 and George Floyd

[BigVic]

How will the 2020 US Election pan out without COVID and the murder of George Floyd which sparked protests and social justice over summer?

Discuss with maps.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)

Issues of the day: Iran War, Presidential ethics, Early 2020s Recession (triggered by Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war)

Here's a possibility. Arguably, without domestic issues for both countries to deal with, these tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran had a decent chance of escalating. That's not a guarantee, but a much stronger possibility in this hypothetical.

[Beet]

No change in the EC.

[Tekken_Guy]

[NewYorkExpress]

George Floyd helped Trump, and COVID helped Biden.

Without both, Biden gets the exact same map as IRL.

[dw93]

MI and NE 2nd still flip to Biden, and I think GA stays for Trump without George Floyd. PA goes Biden by a razor thin margin, WI and AZ go either way and one of them decides the election.

I will say though if Arachno-Statism's theory about Iran in a world without COVID or George Floyd becomes true, I think Biden wins and wins big. I think what I said above is more likely though.