Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump ethics sealed probably set the motion for a Democratic victory in 2018, and with census and redistriction a Democratic solid majority in 2020. 

Redistricting won't take place until after the census is complete, so not until at least the 2022 election.

[Donerail]

The last time Democrats won enough seats to take the House, a Republican President started two (2) land wars in Asia and left an American city to drown. Dems will probably net a dozen or so off the Trump stuff.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last time Democrats won enough seats to take the House, a Republican President started two (2) land wars in Asia and left an American city to drown. Dems will probably net a dozen or so off the Trump stuff.

Dubya's ethics also was in the way, when he outed a CIA operative Valerie Plame, and Dick Cheney had ethical issues as well.  Not to mention Tom Delay redistricting crisis and Foley scandal.

Ethics of Trump concerning Flynn will give enough seats for Nancy Pelosi and its a midterm election.

[The Other Castro]

The last time Democrats won enough seats to take the House, a Republican President started two (2) land wars in Asia and left an American city to drown. Dems will probably net a dozen or so off the Trump stuff.

That was a classic blunder indeed, but maybe Dems can gain enough seats if Trump is foolish enough to go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

[Gass3268]

Lol at anyone predicting only single digit gains.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol at anyone predicting only single digit gains.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. It didn't work out very well for you in 2014 and 2016.

You really think between California an NY alone that dems will only get single digits?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol at anyone predicting only single digit gains.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. It didn't work out very well for you in 2014 and 2016.

You really think between California an NY alone that dems will only get single digits?

Tbf, I think their realistic floor is in the high single digits, maybe something like 8 seats. Not sure how many they will flip in the end, but like I said... I doubt it will be more than 15.

What? You seriously can't see a realistic midterm of:
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
GA-06(special election)
GA-07
IA-01
KS-02
NY-01
NY-19
NY-24
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
TX-23
TX-27
TX-32
VA-10
WV-03

[Hindsight was 2020]

An heck I forgot about NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-11, and MI-06

[windjammer]

I mean,
When you have a Buffon as president polling in the high 30's or in the low 40's,
When you have a dem base so fired up that is going to turn by wider margins than the GOP base
When you have so many incompetent republican leaders who force republicans in dem leaning/swing districts to vote for massively unpopular legislations,


Well, I suggest it is a strong possibility it is going to be a democratic wave.

[jamestroll]

windjammer don't you know that all midterms will be heavily gop leaning just because 2014 and 2010 were?

Kind of like how Democrats would win all presidential elections until the end of time because they won 2008 and 2012.

... oh wait...

[Gass3268]

Lol at anyone predicting only single digit gains.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. It didn't work out very well for you in 2014 and 2016.

The outparty always makes massive gains during midterms baring something Major (9/11, crazy impeachment hearings, etc.) It is the closest thing to a political science fact that we have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of those districts GOP govs like in FL, MI  and CA and NY, Dems are gonna do well in gubernatorial wise and pick up at least a half a dozen gubernatorial contests.

Dems are optimistic but not overconfident until Oct, 2018

[Hindsight was 2020]

You know what I gonna be bold the dems pick up 40 seats an I'll list them:
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
GA-06(special election)
GA-07
IA-01
IL-06
IN-02
KS-02
KY-06
MN-03
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-11
NY-01
NY-11
NY-19
NY-24
NY-27
MI-06
MT-AT
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
TX-07
TX-23
TX-27
TX-32
VA-02
VA-10
WA-10
WV-03

[Pericles]

40-60. It will be a true wave, already the GOP is very vulnerable (the special elections are the canary in the coal mine). With more of Trump's disastrous presidency and a potential non-Trump made crisis, Republicans will have to count on gerrymandering to avoid a historic landslide.

[Technocracy Timmy]

the GPS is very vulenrable

Did the Russians hack our GPS now?

[Littlefinger]

I have my prediction at 20 seats. There are fundamentals that look good for Democrats to take the house (strong candidate recruitment/potent issues to run on like ACHA), but they need to be able to prove they can run competent campaigns and have coherent messages until I feel comfortable saying they will take the house

[PragmaticPopulist]

Conservatively, I'd say around 10-25, more precisely about 18-25. Though I can see them gain 30-40 if 2018 is a perfect storm for Democrats.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

40-60. It will be a true wave, already the GOP is very vulnerable (the special elections are the canary in the coal mine). With more of Trump's disastrous presidency and a potential non-Trump made crisis, Republicans will have to count on gerrymandering to avoid a historic landslide.

Another potential cataclysmic disaster for Republicans is the fact that their Gerrymanders were designed to create lots of slightly Republican leaning seats in the R+2-5 range. But if Democrats can win by a 2010 or 2014 esque margins, the damn breaks as the Gerrymanders were only meant to protect them in a neutral or slight Democratic year. There is only so many GOP voters in each state, so those Gerrymanders work only up to a certain level.

[Technocracy Timmy]

10-25. This is assuming that the business cycle recession hasn't hit hard in 2018; although maybe it has by now...we won't know till it happens.

It looks like the Democrats are gonna continue making gains with college educated whites, Hispanics, and Asians who live largely in suburban areas like the Atlanta metropolitan area and Orange County. Black turnout appears to be leveling off to its normal pre-Obama levels and there's no sign of this changing. Noncollege whites haven't budged much from their overall trend dating back to the 1994 Republican Revolution.

Nonetheless I do think that Democrats are poised to make gains in many areas (perhaps even my own district CA-48th) and the Jon Ossof model appears to be more successful than the Bernie-Quist model for now. If I remember correctly, every single congressional swing district was won by Secretary Clinton in the 2016 primaries over Senator Sanders. So that's the route the Democrats will likely be going in come 2018. Trump's incompetence and scandals will fire enough Democrats to go vote but the gerrymandering, geographic disadvantages, and hyperpartisan electorate will likely keep the House Republican.