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jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2018, 04:11:40 PM »

Kowloon West recount in progress.  The result must be within 1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2018, 04:28:32 PM »

Kowloon West results to be out soon.  I am pretty sure the pan-Establishment Bloc takes it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: March 11, 2018, 07:01:58 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2018, 07:15:06 PM by jaichind »

Kowloon West done
Pan-Establishment Bloc DAB                  49.9%
Pro Pan-Democratic Bloc independent     48.8%
Pan-Establishment Bloc rebel                   1.3%

A historic victory for the Pan-Establishment Bloc where it finally beat the Pan-Democratic Bloc 1-on-1 in a LegCo district election.  Kowloon West was historically been very weak for the Pan-Establishment Bloc but has shifted toward to the Pan-Establishment Bloc due to impact of the rise of Pan-Localism Bloc.  In this race a poor candidate fit as well as lower Pan-Localism Bloc turnout pushed the Pan-Establishment Bloc candidate over the top. 

In 2016 and 2012 it was

                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2

The rise of the Pan-Establishment Bloc from 2012 to 2018 has be quite dramatic and unexpected.   A poor Pan-Democratic Bloc candidate fit for this district also played a role.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: March 11, 2018, 08:31:22 PM »

With this by-election the anti-Establishment Bloc failed to recapture its veto power over certain motions  by the Establishment Bloc.  There are 70 seats in LegCo.  35 District seats and 35 Functional seats.  Certain motions require majority in both types of seats.  Since the Establishment Bloc dominates the functional seats the anti-Establishment forces veto are in getting a majority in the District seats.  The 2012  Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in District seats was 17-18.  In 2016 that Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in Districts seats became 16-19 due to higher turnout and poor coordination within the Establishment bloc. 

But due to some anti-Establishment bloc lawmakers putting in extra items in their swearing in oaths 6 of them were disqualified.  5 out of the 6 were in District seats and 1 in a functional seat.  This gave the  Establishment Bloc a 16-14 majority right away in the District seats.   3 District and 1 functional seat MPs disqualification were upheld on appeal so those 4 went to by-elections.  The other 2 District MP disqualification are still on appeal.  So with the Establishment bloc  winning 1 out of the 3 District by-election (as well as the 1 functional seat by-election) the  Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in Districts seats becomes 17-16 so the Establishment bloc keeps its majority in District seats.  If  2 District MP disqualifications which are still on appeal are upheld then in the next by-election the anti-Establishment bloc forces must win both seats to get to a 17-18  Establishment/Anti-Establishment balance.  If they split the 2 seats then it stays a 18-17  Establishment majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2018, 07:28:01 AM »

The pro-Beijing administration actions to block pro-HK Independence/self-determination candidates most likely prevented an Establishment bloc sweep of the by-elections.   

In HK Island the Localism Bloc MP Nathan Law who was ejected from the LegCo had his girlfriend Agnes Chow run for his old seat and was accepted as the anti-Establishment united from candidate.  Given her pro-independence/self-determination views, Agnes Chow was turned down as a candidate and the anti-Establishment front had to nominated a more moderate candidate.  If Agnes Chow had run instead and given how close the election was in HK Island, the result would have been at best 50/50 given Agnes Chow's views would have driven the Moderates toward the Establishment Bloc candidate even as the Localism Bloc turnout would increase.

In New Territories East  the anti-Establishment front failed to agree on a common candidate.   So in addition to the Pan-Democratic Bloc ND candidate, two Localism Bloc candidates registered to run.  Had them been allowed to run, Localism Bloc turnout would have increased but the split in the anti-Establishment vote would have mirrored the split in the Establishment vote and threw the election to  Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB candidate.

To some extend priorities of the PRC and Establishment Bloc are similar but not the same.  The PRC prioritizes the swashing of all HK independence discourse over winning elections.  The Establishment Bloc does not mind such discourse as much since it merely drives the moderate voters toward them and is likely to cause a split in the anti-Establishment Bloc vote.  In this round PRC priorities won out   and prevented a clean sweep by the Establishment Bloc.  Of course in the end even the result as it is  was seen as a setback for the anti-Establishment Bloc  forces.  It just could have been far worse had the PRC harmonized its goals with the electoral interests of the Establishment Bloc forces. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2018, 01:37:07 PM »

I spent a few months in HK back in the 1990s so I know something about the various HK Island neighborhoods.  Looking at the HK Island election results it seems that the Democratic Bloc Independent did well in the large swath of middle class neighborhoods while the Establishment Bloc NPP did well in high end as well as working class neighborhoods.  The economic elite in HK clearly aligns with the PRC so that they vote Establishment Bloc make sense.  The working class vote for Establishment Bloc is more about the residue pro-CCP labor union support for pro-Beijing parties which are part of the Establishment Bloc, some Chinese nationalist tendencies in the HK working class and of course the fact that the current HK regime controls public housing subsides that the working class often depend on.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2018, 12:12:29 PM »

By election coming up 11/25 for Kowloon West.  Localism Bloc MP 劉小麗(Lau Siu-lai) was disqualified due to the oath taking controversy so there is a by-election for her seat with all of  Kowloon West voting. Lau registered to run but was disqualified for not accepting PRC sovereignty over HK.

As it is the candidates are
1) Pro-Beijing radical
2) Localism Bloc radical
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan (陳凱欣)

Back in 2016 the  Kowloon West were

Kowloon West
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2

Kowloon West used to be the Establishment Bloc weakest area but has been trending  Establishment Bloc.  Pro-Localism Bloc paper Passion Times had a recent poll which has it

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            4.3%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         3.3%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   30.0%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                         21.7%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             42.0%

Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee leads overall for the voters called all over HK but for residents in  Kowloon West the Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan (陳凱欣) is well ahead.  The election will really depend on tactical voting by the 3 weaker candidates supporters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: November 23, 2018, 06:45:54 PM »

By-election for Kowloon West. this Sunday.

The current Passion Times poll for voters living in Kowloon West has it at

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            0.8%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         0.0%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   29.0%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                         25.5%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             45.0%


It seems unless there are massive tactical voting within the  Democratic Bloc  and Localism Bloc  the Establishment Bloc  is looking at another by-election pickup.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2018, 05:54:41 PM »

By-election in Kowloon West done with turnout of 44%.  Establishment Bloc candidate wins with new majority of the vote

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            0.77%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         0.61%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   43.28%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                           5.82%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             49.52%

On thing that Democratic Bloc now has to consider now that they allowed the Establishment Bloc to win majority or near majority in 2 by-elections is: Has the radicalism of the Localism Bloc now created a almost near majority for the Establishment Bloc?   Last round of elections shows that the Establishment Bloc has nearly 45% of the vote.  I think there an argument that this level has gone up since 2016.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #34 on: November 21, 2019, 09:38:59 AM »

Elections for the District Councils will be held on Sunday. Every Seat is being contested.

It will be the first test of public opinion of Hong Kong people since the current crisis started. All indications are that Carrie Lam is universally unpopular, and this will likely drag down the Pro-Establishment/Peking bloc. But perhaps the recently increasing violence by some Protestors will have caused their public support to waver? Either way, losses for the Pro-Establishment Bloc are expected.

The pro-establishment Bloc currently controls all district councils. Unlike in the LegCo there are no functional constituencies, i.e. Constituencies elected by Business groups etc. loyal to the pro- Establishment bloc.

As stands right now, the pro-establishment Camp has 327 Seats, the pro democrats 124.
Map:
 
By Lmmnhn - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=45488467
Red   = Pro-Establishment
Green= Pro-Democrat

Instead 452 Seats will be elected by FPTP. 27 Seats are ex-officio.
Here is a Site that gives an overview of all candidates contesting and constituency boundaries including a results simulator: https://vote4.hk/en/

Two or more pro-democratic camp candidates are running in 33 constituencies, two or more pro-establishment camp candidates in 30 constituencies. Additionally Protestors have accused the Pro-Establishment camp of running dummy candidate independents who claim to be pro-democrat in some constituencies to split the vote.

The Figurehead of the Protest Movement Joshua Wong has been barred from running in the election since advocating or promoting self-determination is contrary to the content of the declaration that HK law requires a candidate to make to uphold the Basic Law and pledge allegiance to the HKSAR. Joshua Wong claims he does not support splittism. Kelvin Lam is running as his replacement in the Constituency of South Horizons West.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: November 23, 2019, 07:04:28 AM »

Voting for 18 District Councils. Obviously the recent riots would be a critical issue.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/22/asia/hong-kong-protests-district-council-elections-intl-hnk/index.html

Incorrectly gives the results of 2011 and 2015 to be

                                 2011              2015
Pan-Establishment        180               198
Pan-Democratic              83               100
Others                         149               133

If you group the various independents by de facto lean it is really

                                 2011              2015
Pan-Establishment        299               298
Pan-Democratic            103               126
Others                           10                  7

As most independents lean Pan-Establishment.  In 2015 the Pan-Establishment bloc captured control  of 17 out of 18 Councils and had a NOC for the last one.

This time around the Pan-Democratic bloc will clearly make gains.  I sort of suspect they will still not overtake the Pan-Establishment in terms of seats.

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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: November 23, 2019, 08:28:47 AM »

Generally pro-Democratic bloc pollster HKPOP poll

https://www.pori.hk/s/6th_round.pdf

Trust of HK government        Yes/No/Maybe   18.5/64.8/15.8
Trust of Central government  Yes/No/Maybe   25.7/61.6/10.6
Trust of Police                      Yes/No/Maybe   27.3/63.1/8.5

Approval of 1 Country 2 Systems    Approve/Disapprove/Maybe   27.6/56.1/14.3

Protests much be peaceful       Yes/No/Maybe   64.9/19.1/15.2
Aggressive Protests justified?   Yes/No/Maybe   56.7/32.0/9.7
Protest going to far                 Yes/No/Maybe   36.6/43.6/18.8
Police to aggressive                Yes/No/Maybe    65.1/26.6/7.7

How should protester react to police aggression

If protesters who gets violent should be arrested     30.1
Protester can act in self defense                             53.0
Protesters should attack police                               12.5

Are protesters blocking roads acceptable Yes/No/Maybe   47.7/41.2/9.8


If these are the numbers then the Pro-Establishment bloc will get a drubbing this Sunday.  The only way out is to run against protester violence and vandalism and then hope the stronger local roots of the Pro-Establishment bloc candidates can carry them to beat back a Pan-Democratic majority at the Council level. 

Back in 2003 due to the imposition of the New Security Law there were large scale demonstrations in HK and resulted in a Pan-Democratic majority in the 2003 Council elections.  The Pan-Establishment Bloc have since slowed took back ground to form large majorities in the 2011 and 2015 elections.  Unless the Pan-Establishment bloc  can get a massive turnout of their supporters to match the clear Pan-Democratic bloc turnout it is possible that 2003 might be repeated.
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jaichind
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« Reply #37 on: November 23, 2019, 08:40:06 AM »

In about 30-40 seats the Pan-Democratic bloc have Plan A and Plan B candidates.  Namely there are fears that some candidates might get rejected so the Pan-Democratic bloc had 2 candidates run (a Plan A and a Plan B candidate).  If the Plan A candidate gets rejected by the election commission then the Plan B candidate will be the Pan-Democratic bloc candidate.  In most cases both Plan A and Plan B candidate have been approved so the Pan-Democratic bloc campaign material asks voters to vote for the Plan A candidate with the Plan B candidate not campaigning.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: November 23, 2019, 09:46:23 PM »

Turnout back in 2015 was 47% which was a record high for District elections.  I figure the turnout has to be around 60% for the Pan-Democratic bloc to win in terms of getting a majority of seats.  My prediction is that they will come close but not do it.  I figure the Pan-Democratic bloc will win 7-8 out of Councils versus none today (although 1 out of 18 is NOC.)  I think if the election was a couple of weeks ago the Pan-Democratic bloc will win a narrow majority.  But with the surge of violence there is some swing back toward the Pan-Establishment bloc.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #39 on: November 24, 2019, 07:12:34 AM »

As of 6.30pm, close to 2.5 million people - or 60 per cent of all registered voters - have cast their votes. The turnout has already surpassed the previous record of 2.2 million voters in the 2016 legislative council elections.
Is expected of reach 70pct at the close of polls.
Good news for pan-democrats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: November 24, 2019, 07:55:40 AM »

There has never been any elections in HK where turnout will be into the 70% range.  It is clear that turnout in the 60% are good for pan-Democratic bloc.  Not not as clear that turnout higher then that would not reverse itself.  Of course given the events over the last few months one should expect a Pan-Democratic bloc sweep and repeat of the 2003 District elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: November 24, 2019, 10:12:16 AM »

Turnout reaching 69% with one more hour to go.

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urutzizu
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« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2019, 12:04:27 PM »

Final Turnout: 71.2%

Counting has started and it is looking good for pan-democrats.
Occupy student leaders Tommy Cheung, Lester Shum, Eddie Chan and Kelvin Lam (Joshua Wong substitute) win in their respective constituencies, the first two ousting incumbent pro-establishment members.
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: November 24, 2019, 12:39:01 PM »

https://dce2019.hk01.com

Has it at pro-democratic bloc 45 seats vs pan-establishment 4 seats.   Looks like a massive pro-democratic bloc landslide.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2019, 12:41:09 PM »

Junius Ho is out. He is one of the most outspoken and controversial pro-Peking politicans, who has said that pro-independence people should be "killed mercilessly", and was shaking hands with white-clad men on the night a mob attacked protesters and other passengers in Yuen Long station. He was stabbed with a knife by rioters a few weeks ago. He lost his re-election bid in the Lok Tsui constituency in Tuen Mun to the Democratic Party’s Lo Chun-yu.
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xelas81
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« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2019, 01:04:16 PM »

It is too early to tell but I wonder if pan-establishment gerrymandering will became dummymander and pro-democrats will more seats as a result.
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Joseph Cao
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« Reply #46 on: November 24, 2019, 01:32:50 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 02:20:57 PM by Rep. Joseph Cao »

If my math is correct, the pan-democracy bloc has won control of the Sha Tin District Council, which was almost tied between the two blocs in the previous election, as well as flipping Tai Po, Central and Western, and Southern Districts outright. Still fairly early in the night.

EDIT [03:00]: Now Tsuen Wan and Yau Tsim Mong have also flipped to the pan-dems. Wong Tai Sin and Eastern could be the next to flip.

EDIT [03:20]: Wan Chai has flipped.
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jaichind
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« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2019, 01:58:57 PM »

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 149 seats Pan-Establishment bloc 11 seats.

Frankly, a quick glance at the vote shares so far does not impress me.  The Pan-Democratic bloc are mostly winning all their seats with 55%-60% vote share.  So in reality what is taking place is the Pan-Democratic bloc has been able to unite all its factions (Moderate, Radical, Localism) around a pre-2012 LEGCO vote share of the Pan-Democratic bloc (when it was mostly 60-40 Pan-Democratic Pan-Establishment vs 55-45 post 2012).  The only difference are Legco elections are mutli-member and these elections are FPTP.  The Pan-Establishment bloc did well in 2011 and 2015 with low turnout and making the elections about local issues to overtime the clear structural advantage of the Pan-Democratic bloc.  This time all that got unstuck as the election became about a Pan-Democratic vs Pan-Establishment face-off with a 60-40 structural advantage for the Pan-Democratic bloc in a FPTP system.   

If these vote shares hold I think the 2020 Legco will still produce a narrow Pan-Establishment majority given the Pan-Establishment advantage in gerrymandering and the fact that Legco elections are multi-district. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #48 on: November 24, 2019, 02:03:14 PM »

Junius Ho is out. He is one of the most outspoken and controversial pro-Peking politicans, who has said that pro-independence people should be "killed mercilessly", and was shaking hands with white-clad men on the night a mob attacked protesters and other passengers in Yuen Long station. He was stabbed with a knife by rioters a few weeks ago. He lost his re-election bid in the Lok Tsui constituency in Tuen Mun to the Democratic Party’s Lo Chun-yu.

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: November 24, 2019, 02:05:34 PM »

Pan-Democratic bloc looks like will sweep all 18 Councils.  The only one that the Pan-Establishment bloc will have a chance is Kowloon City District.
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