Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread
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exnaderite
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« Reply #150 on: March 06, 2021, 01:01:39 PM »

At least North Korea's elections give you insight into the internal politics of the Kim regime. These LegCo seats will only be filled with no-name rubber-stamp loyalists.

Also, Beijing issued its annual government report during the National People's Congress. In previous years, they always at least mentioned "Hong Kongers will run Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy". This year, they didn't even bother paying lip service.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #151 on: March 12, 2021, 03:03:06 AM »

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« Reply #152 on: March 30, 2021, 01:55:56 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2021, 04:55:28 AM by MoreThanPolitics »


The Hong Kong government CCP also made a propaganda booklet about the "election reforms":
https://www.cmab.gov.hk/improvement/filemanager/content/pdf/en/resource-centre/booklet.pdf
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #153 on: April 13, 2021, 04:56:38 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 05:10:09 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Openly calling people to cast blank/void votes in the upcoming "elections" can put you behind bars for three years.


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« Reply #154 on: April 15, 2021, 09:07:57 PM »

What about calling for people to sarcastically write-in Mao Zedong on the ballot? They dare not prosecute that.

The gerrymandering in that map is so obvious. Even after the LegCo's composition and the candidates have been sheared of any meaningful representation, they still need to dilute the votes of potentially unfriendly voters.
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« Reply #155 on: April 16, 2021, 06:27:53 AM »

What parts of the map and how is the map gerrymandered? Not doubting it, just wondering the specifics.
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« Reply #156 on: April 16, 2021, 04:43:29 PM »

Yuen Long, Sha Tin, and Wong Tai Sin are divided. Most of the districts have no coherent purpose or identity. Before this year, there were 40 elected seats over 5 constituencies. Now, there are 20 elected seats over 10 constituencies. This adds many layers of protection against "wrong" people getting elected.
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« Reply #157 on: April 16, 2021, 07:53:10 PM »

Shouldn't this thread be renamed the "Hong Kong Electoral-type event megathread"?  You know things have gotten bad when Russian elections have more legitimacy than what's going on in Hong Kong these days.
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #158 on: April 20, 2021, 11:07:39 AM »

Shouldn't this thread be renamed the "Hong Kong Electoral-type event megathread"?  You know things have gotten bad when Russian elections have more legitimacy than what's going on in Hong Kong these days.

Lol. Isn't OP the only person who can edit the thread name?
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #159 on: April 20, 2021, 11:15:33 AM »

If you want to know how are things going for a pro-democratic district councilor right now, here you go.




Quote
While the current District Councils dominated by the pro-democracy camp have passed not even half of their 4-year term, it has been rumoured that District Councillors would be required to swear allegiance to the Hong Kong Special Administration Region and that some would be disqualified. Meanwhile, the pro-government camp has been setting up organizations across Hong Kong to monitor the district councils and demanding that the government makes District Councillors vow allegiance, so that those who violate the oath would be disqualified. How do the District Councillors carry on with their work amid this political environment?
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« Reply #160 on: April 26, 2021, 12:05:05 PM »

Apologies if this is a very basic question, but what are the main sociological divides in HK politics besides the obvious (locals-mainlanders)? In addition to the pro-democracy/pro-CCP divide, do different parties in each coalition have significantly different support bases?
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #161 on: April 26, 2021, 10:40:08 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2021, 09:19:15 PM by MoreThanPolitics »

Apologies if this is a very basic question, but what are the main sociological divides in HK politics besides the obvious (locals-mainlanders)? In addition to the pro-democracy/pro-CCP divide, do different parties in each coalition have significantly different support bases?

No worries at all! Disclaimer: Due to Beijing's crackdown of the pro-democratic movement and overhaul of the electoral system, this is about to be invalid in the future.

Of course there are sociological divides, but they are overwhelmed by the one major issue in Hong Kong politics: China. Also, since popularly-elected seats in Legislative Council (LegCo) elections are elected under proportional representation, it is common for pro-democratic candidates to claim "I have already secured enough votes, please vote for another candidate instead!" on election day to maximize the number of seats of their camp. Basically, LegCo elections in Hong Kong are just a game of vote allocation.

For the second part of your question, it should be noted that most "political parties" or political groups in Hong Kong are actually limited companies or societies due to the lack of legislation for political parties. You can read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Hong_Kong.



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« Reply #162 on: May 11, 2021, 12:28:01 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 11:07:06 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Tomorrow (May 12), HK's rubberstamp legislature will discuss on a newly-created oath-taking bill requiring district councilors to take an oath of office. If passed, district councilors have to pledge allegiance to Beijing and the government this month (or early June), and the bill is expected to pass this week.

However, over 20 district councilors, all of them pro-democracy, has either refused to take the oath and vowed to resign once the bill is passed, resigned early due to being detained for attending the primaries last year, disqualified due to pleading guilty to attending a Tiananmen vigil last year that police claimed was an "illegal assembly", and resigned because of personal reasons. List (hopefully) coming soon.  

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« Reply #163 on: May 12, 2021, 06:07:04 AM »

For the second part of your question, it should be noted that most "political parties" or political groups in Hong Kong are actually limited companies or societies due to the lack of legislation for political parties. You can read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Hong_Kong.

I know the reasoning behind it to an extent; but this makes Hong Kong seem like some sort of anarcho-capitalist dream land where private companies control the country. Especially hilarious given China (one of the last few remaining nominally communist states) is the one that wants to seize HK Tongue
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« Reply #164 on: May 12, 2021, 09:40:35 AM »

Tomorrow (May 12), South Shenzhen HK's rubberstamp legislature will discuss on a newly-created oath-taking bill requiring district councilors to take an oath of office. If passed, district councilors have to pledge allegiance to Beijing and the government this month (or early June), and the bill is expected to pass this week.

However, over 20 district councilors, all of them pro-democracy, has either refused to take the oath and vowed to resign once the bill is passed, resigned early due to being detained for attending the primaries last year, disqualified due to pleading guilty to attending a Tiananmen vigil last year that police claimed was an "illegal assembly", and resigned because of personal reasons. List (hopefully) coming soon.  



5/12 Update: Unsurprisingly, the bill was passed with near-unanimous support in LegCo this evening. It is expected to take effect on May 21.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/05/12/hong-kong-lawmakers-pass-bill-requiring-public-officers-to-pledge-allegiance-to-govt-four-district-councillors-to-be-ousted/
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #165 on: June 08, 2021, 02:22:17 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2021, 01:11:15 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Hong Kong officials warn 30-odd district councilors over Tiananmen Square commemorations
(From Apple Daily, June 8, 2021)

https://web.archive.org/web/20210621131906/https://en.appledaily.com/hong-kong-officials-warn-30-odd-district-councilors-over-tiananmen-square-commemorations/KAG5JN6GFJD3TNNJH53GEAAS3M

Quote
More than 30 directly elected district councilors received warnings from the Hong Kong government after they planned events to commemorate victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

The government’s Home Affairs Department issued warning letters to the councilors, saying they might have breached Hong Kong’s laws by distributing candles to people. The councilors had encouraged others to take part in an unauthorized assembly, and their activities were “unrelated to the District Council’s work” and “undermine district harmony,” the department said.

Many Hongkongers and activists came up with their own ways to mark the anniversary of the June 4, 1989, crackdown last Friday after authorities banned an annual mass candlelit vigil at Victoria Park for a second year.

Well, if the government needs a new excuse to disqualify the district councilors who are "ungrateful" to the regime, there it is. This year is the 100th anniversary of CCP's founding, after all. Even pro-Beijing duds who once opposed the Tiananmen crackdowns in 1989 are now supportive of it.
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« Reply #166 on: June 23, 2021, 12:08:30 AM »
« Edited: July 12, 2021, 10:44:40 PM by MoreThanPolitics »

Updated July 13, 2021: Forget this. At this point, the regime is more likely to disband all district councils and end its 40-year history.

Format: Constituency code, name of constituency, name of district councilor, cause(s) of vacancy, date of vacancy

Vacant seats as of June 23, 2021:

Central & Western:
  • A01 Chung Wan 中環: Ted Hui Chi-fung 許智峯, self-exiled since December 2020, never resigned but seat revoked May 29, 2021
  • A02 Mid Levels East 半山東: Ng Siu-hong 吳兆康, resigned for unspecified reasons, vacant since May 1, 2021
  • A06 Kwun Lung 觀龍: Fergus Leung Fong-wai 梁晃維, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 1, 2021
  • A07 Kennedy Town & Mount Davis 堅摩: Cherry Wong Kin-ching 黃健菁, resigned for health reasons, vacant since June 4, 2021
  • A15 Water Street 水街: Louis Ho Chi-wang 何致宏, resigned for health reasons, vacant since May 27, 2021


Wan Chai:
  • No vacancies yet


Eastern:
  • C08 Heng Fa Chuen 杏花邨: Christine Wong Yi 黃宜, resigned for health reasons, vacant since April 1, 2021
  • C12 King Yee 景怡: Phoenix Tsang Yan-ying 曾因瑩, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • C17 Fortress Hill 炮台山: Jason Chan Ka-yau 陳嘉佑, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • C20 Fort Street 堡壘: Karrine Fu Kai-lam 傅佳琳, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • C22 Tanner 丹拿: Tat Cheng Tat-hung 鄭達鴻, arrested under NSL for participating in LegCo primary (currently on bail), vacant since May 11, 2021
  • C34 Yue Wan 漁灣: Andy Chui Chi-kin 徐子見, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 10, 2021

Southern:
  • D13 Tin Wan 田灣: Tiffany Yuen Ka-wai 袁嘉蔚, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 21, 2021


Yau Tsim Mong:
  • No vacancies yet

Sham Shui Po:
  • F15 Mei Foo South 美孚南: Eunice Chau Yuen-man 周琬雯, resigned for personal reasons, vacant since June 1, 2021


Kowloon City:
  • G17 To Kwa Wan South 土瓜灣南: Timothy Lee Hin-long 李軒朗, unseated by the High Court after losing election petition by defeated pro-Beijing candidate (also left HK), vacant since March 25, 2021


Wong Tai Sin:
  • H11 Wang Tau Hom 橫頭磡: Carmen Lau Ka-man 劉珈汶, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 9, 2021
  • H15 Chuk Yuen North 竹園北: Cheng Tsz-kin 鄭梓健, resigned for personal reasons, vacant since June 1, 2021


Kwun Tong:
  • J04 Lai Ching 麗晶: Anthony Bux Sheik 畢東尼, resigned for health reasons, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • J29 Tsui Ping 翠屏: Hinson Hung Chun-hin 洪駿軒, unseated by the High Court after losing election petition by defeated pro-Beijing candidate, vacant since May 4, 2021
  • J33 Hip Hong 協康: Kinda Li Ka-tat 李嘉達, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since April 19, 2021
  • J37 Hong Lok 康樂: Chris Chan Ka-yin 陳嘉言, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021


Tsuen Wan:
  • K04 Hoi Bun 海濱: Lester Shum 岑敖暉, sentenced to prison for attending June 4th assembly in 2020 (also detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary), vacant since May 21, 2021
  • K11 Ma Wan 馬灣: Roy Tam Hoi-pong 譚凱邦, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since April 20, 2021


Tuen Mun:
  • L11 San Hui 新墟: Sam Cheung Ho-sum 張可森, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 11, 2021
  • L12 So Kwun Wat 掃管笏: Ma Kee 馬旗, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021


Yuen Long:
  • M12 Shap Pat Heung West 十八鄉西: Szeto Pok-man 司徒博文, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • M27 Kingswood North 嘉湖北: Lucifer "Mr. K" Ng Kin-wai 伍健偉, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 10, 2021
  • M32 Tin Heng 天恒: Henry Wong Pak-yu 王百羽, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 5, 2021
  • M35 Fairview Park 錦綉花園: To Ka-lun 杜嘉倫, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since May 1, 2021


North:
  • N06 Yan Shing 欣盛: Mary Lam Shuk-ching 林淑菁, resigned for family reasons, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • N09 Ching Ho 清河: Sea Yuen Ho-lun 袁浩倫, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • N13 Shek Wu Hui 石湖墟: Lam Cheuk-ting 林卓廷, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since March 31, 2021


Tai Po:
  • P01 Tai Po Hui 大埔墟: Nick Lam Ming-yat 林名溢, resigned for health reasons, vacant since May 12, 2021
  • P08 Kwong Fuk & Plover Cove 廣福及寶湖: Dalu Lin Kok-cheung 連桷璋, resigned due to the
    "increasing restraints brought by the job", vacant since May 11, 2021
  • P12 San Fu 新富: Max Wu Yiu-cheong 胡耀昌, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since May 11, 2021
  • P17 Hong Lok Yuen 康樂園: Manson Yiu Yeuk-sang 姚躍生, resigned for health reasons, vacant since May 17, 2021


Sai Kung:
  • Q07 Kin Ming 健明: Leung Li 梁里, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • Q19 Yan Ying 欣英: Ben Chung Kam-lun 鍾錦麟, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 11, 2021
  • Q21 Wan Hang 運亨: Gary Fan Kwok-wai 范國威, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since March 16, 2021
  • Q29 Kwan Po 軍寶: Jacky Lai Ming-chak 黎銘澤, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since May 1, 2021


Sha Tin:
  • R04 City One 第一城: Leticia Wong Man-huen 黃文萱, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 4, 2021
  • R32 Kam Ying 錦英: Andy Ting Tsz-yuen 丁仕元, resigned for family reasons, vacant since June 1, 2021


Kwai Tsing:
  • S06 Kwai Chung Estate South 葵涌邨南: Ivan Wong Yun-tat 黃潤達, refused to take the oath of office, vacant since June 1, 2021
  • S08 Shek Yam 石蔭: Andrew Wan Siu-kin 尹兆堅, currently detained under NSL for participating in LegCo primary, vacant since May 11, 2021
  • S14 Kwai Fong 葵芳: Leung Yiu-chung 梁耀忠, lost seat for organizing "illegal assemblies" in 2019 (sentenced for 8 months and given a year's suspension)
  • S16 Wah Lai 華麗: Sin Chung-kai 單仲偕, lost seat for attending "illegal assemblies" in 2019 (sentenced for 14 months and given 2 years' suspension)


Islands:
  • No vacancies yet



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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #167 on: June 23, 2021, 12:26:56 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2021, 01:37:29 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

District councilors to take oaths in July with over 170 expected to be disqualified: The Standard, June 16, 2021

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/174655/District-councilors-to-take-oaths-in-July-with-over-170-expected-to-be-disqualified

Quote
District councilors in Hong Kong will be taking an oath of allegiance in July, with over 170 of them expected to be disqualified and unseated, according to reports.

[...]

It is reported that authorities are drawing up a “negative list” as a criterion for breach of oath or invalidation of oaths, which affect at least three types of district councilors.

They include those who participated in the “35+” primary election of the pan-democrats last year, those who allowed their office to be used as polling stations for the primary, and those who signed a joint statement pledging they would use the LegCo’s power to veto budget bills to compel the chief executive to respond to the 2019 protest movement’s demands.

Preliminary calculation based on the “negative list” shows that at least 170 district councilors will be disqualified, including 11 and 7 chairmen and vice-chairmen of the district council respectively.

All district councillors of the Civic Party and Neo Democrats are expected to be disqualified given the two parties have both signed the joint statement, while the Democratic Party will also lose at least 50 seats due to the councilors using their office as polling stations.

About 43.7% of pro-democratic district councilors elected in 2019 are poised to lose their seats next month. Including >40 who resigned early or are currently in prison, only less than half will survive. This is only the government's first step: it might demand disqualified representatives to repay public funds over their 18-month tenures (a la Singapore's PAP), and the district councilors who have survived the purge can be disqualified anytime.

Oh, and don't forget the almighty NSL!
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MoreThanPolitics
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« Reply #168 on: June 23, 2021, 10:32:12 PM »

Shameless self-promotion:

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« Reply #169 on: July 01, 2021, 05:02:34 PM »

https://www.hkcnews.com/article/42896/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B0%91%E7%A0%94-%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E7%8E%87-42908/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B0%91%E7%A0%94

PORI poll has 41% of HK residents "Proud to be a Citizen of China", highest since 2010 and rise from 36% in 2020.  Bodes well for raw vote share for Establishment bloc later this year.

Looking at


41% seems to be around what it was in the 2000-2004 period.  The peak was 2008 at 50% in the backdrop of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
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« Reply #170 on: July 01, 2021, 06:53:35 PM »


PORI poll has 41% of HK residents "Proud to be a Citizen of China", highest since 2010 and rise from 36% in 2020.  Bodes well for raw vote share for Establishment bloc later this year.


You forgot to mention that many people are behaving in the same way as a North Korean who's asked about their approval of Kim Jong Un, and that the Establishment Bloc will be the next to be purged by Beijing.
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« Reply #171 on: July 02, 2021, 09:25:38 AM »


PORI poll has 41% of HK residents "Proud to be a Citizen of China", highest since 2010 and rise from 36% in 2020.  Bodes well for raw vote share for Establishment bloc later this year.


You forgot to mention that many people are behaving in the same way as a North Korean who's asked about their approval of Kim Jong Un, and that the Establishment Bloc will be the next to be purged by Beijing.

Totally possible that fear bias might drive these results although PORI always does its polling in Cantonese which somewhat mitigates that factor.  Still the same poll has Carrie Lam with still rock bottom ratings so even if there is a fear factor it only applies to PRC and not Carrie Lam.
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« Reply #172 on: July 02, 2021, 12:21:58 PM »

Totally possible that fear bias might drive these results although PORI always does its polling in Cantonese which somewhat mitigates that factor.  Still the same poll has Carrie Lam with still rock bottom ratings so even if there is a fear factor it only applies to PRC and not Carrie Lam.

People are arrested for posting stickers on their apartment doors. You can hardly expect people to be fully honest when random people call them for their opinions.

Anyway, now that the pro-democracy bloc has been neutralized, Beijing has no use for the pro-establishment bloc anymore. There's no need for Beijing to rule Hong Kong through local proxies who have been proven to be incompetent and self-interested. That's why they will be the next to be sidelined. Of course, whoever replaces them can't count on job security either, because the Big Boss' orders are constantly changing. Such are the joys of the Cultural Revolution 2.0.
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« Reply #173 on: July 03, 2021, 01:22:23 AM »

Furthermore, I'm not convinced anyone in Hong Kong actually likes Carrie Lam, Cantonese-speaking or otherwise, or sees her as much of an authority compared to Beijing. No reason for her ratings to suddenly change when she's just the same Chief (ha!) Executive as she has always been with an extra dose of irrelevancy on top of that.
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« Reply #174 on: July 12, 2021, 10:20:27 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2021, 08:52:45 AM by MoreThanPolitics »

Apparently, the regime vowed to disqualify at least 230 district councilors, which is almost 60% of all pro-democratic slate elected in 2019 (or 67% if you take out all councilors who left office before this month), based on the following criteria which the regime called the "naughty negative list". If a district councilor:

  • let their offices be used as polling stations for last July's LegCo primaries;
  • signed the pledge to vote down the LegCo’s budget proposal unless the government agreed to the "five demands" (note: NeoDemocrats and Civic Party signed the pledge in the name of their respective parties, which led to an exodus of councilors from the two groups in June and the dissolution of the former. Despite that, the regime still insisted the party departees did such just to avoid charges, and would still be disqualified regardless)
  • signed an online petition last year calling the US to discontinue the special trade status with HK
  • displayed the slogan "Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times" (or literally any protest merchandise, but who knows) in offices

Those meeting at least one criterion will result in instant disqualification, and have to repay all salaries, subsidies and allowances over the past 18 months worth over 1 million dollars *per councilor* if they don't voluntary resign.

Since July 7, 194 councilors (including 1 independent who belongs to neither camp) have already quit their seats at the time of writing this post. Wong Tai Sin District Council becomes the emptiest chamber with 22/25 (88%)* seats vacant, followed by Central & Western (12/15 or 80%) and Southern (13/17 or 76.5%).

*as of 11:35pm HKT, 07/13/2021

TL;DR: You started your new job in January 2020. A year and a half later, your employer suddenly added a new provision to the contract only to fire you for being “unpatriotic”. Despite getting fired, your employer still forces you to repay all salaries and allowances worth over USD $120K you have earned over your tenure, which is supported by only ~18% of your fellow employees.

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