2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[mileslunn]

UK at least in London while Labour as a whole, Tories do win the central London seats (may lose next election though) like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham.  Now true some like Battersea and Putney swung away recently despite rightward swing nationally.  And in three mentioned margins have come down in last few elections in contrast with national numbers.

I get impression when left wing alternative is a liberal socially progressive type, wealthier urban areas have easier time voting for them (Canadian Liberals, US Democrats for example) then when a social democratic party.

I also think wealthier urban areas turn left when the traditional right of centre party morphs into a rabidly populist, xenophobic anti-intellectual party. Notice how in the recent election in Alberta the strongest swings from UPC to NDP were in the wealthiest ridings in Calgary. Look at how in Manitoba where the PCs tried to play the race card they got annihilated in Winnipeg and the premier came within 200 votes of losing the richest seat in the city that was previously considered a rock solid safe Tory seat.

I wonder when and if there will be a similar pattern in New Zealand?

In New Zealand though National largely stayed clear of that as did ACT, it was more New Zealand First who went this route so maybe why they have held up better.  Heck in wealthy London areas it seems Brexit referendum was turning point when wealthier areas started to move away from Tories as those areas voted around 70% remain while most Tory voters and seats voted leave.  

In fact I believe National and ACT for were for higher immigration although NZF for less so those two kind of anomalies.  In many ways those two more like your Mulroney PCs, Gordon Campbell BC Liberals or even Reagan Republicans whereas elsewhere right has largely ditched that and go full on populist.

Also depends on what left is like too.  Manitoba NDP and Alberta NDP ran on very centrist platforms that if a wealthy progressive conservative you could tolerate.  Unlike NDP in most provinces, neither mentioned tax hikes on wealthy even though that is usually a staple left wing platform.  I think in US if Sanders not Biden had won Democrat nomination, Trump would have done much better in well off suburban areas.  Likewise I think Starmer being more moderate will succeed in UK whereas reason central London stayed Tory as while many uneasy with Tories, Corbyn was a bridge too far.  So if Labour in NZ becomes like US Democrats, Prairie NDP, federal Liberals or Starmer Labour, I could see them picking up well off Auckland areas.  But if more like Sanders or Corbyn or federal NDP in Canada, no I don't think they will.

[brucejoel99]

National has let ACT move forward legislation on Treaty principles but vetoed a referendum

So they'll just make the changes that ACT wanted made by a referendum without a referendum??

[mileslunn]

Curious if National and ACT got their wish to increase retirement age or is that basically a non-starter if New Zealand First included?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ACT has promised that this government will “treat landlords with dignity”

[mileslunn]

Promised tax cuts, but is it just indexing as New Zealand unlike Canada, France, Germany, and US but like Italy, Japan and UK doesn't adjust brackets for inflation so bracket creep or will any of the brackets actually be reduced?  Luxon earlier wanted to reduce top rate from 39% back to 33% but backed off so its that happening or not?  While I get why popular in business community 39% is already lower than most high income countries.  Even US in most states is higher than that while UK and Australia mid 40s and Canada even worse at over 50%.

[Pericles]

National has let ACT move forward legislation on Treaty principles but vetoed a referendum

So they'll just make the changes that ACT wanted made by a referendum without a referendum??

It's unclear if the bill will be passed or in what form, they just agreed to let it go to select committee.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/oceaniaelects/status/1728339016641315041
The total number of MPs is now brought up to 123: NACT 60 + Lab/Green/TPM 55 + NZF 8.

[CumbrianLefty]

ACT has promised that this government will “treat landlords with dignity”

Because that is what really matters right now

[warandwar]

ACT has promised that this government will “treat landlords with dignity”

Because that is what really matters right now

They were strong advocates of legalizing euthanasia, i think it is just called sticking to principles.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/oceaniaelects/status/1728339016641315041
The total number of MPs is now brought up to 123: NACT 60 + Lab/Green/TPM 55 + NZF 8.

I note this went uncontested by most of the "main" parties apart the incumbent.

Is this normal in such circumstances?

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/oceaniaelects/status/1728339016641315041
The total number of MPs is now brought up to 123: NACT 60 + Lab/Green/TPM 55 + NZF 8.

I note this went uncontested by most of the "main" parties apart the incumbent.

Is this normal in such circumstances?

What circumstances do you mean? It being just after the election made the other parties disinclined to contest it, since they spent their budgets on the general election (Labour raised about as much as the Greens but a lot less than National and ACT).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/oceaniaelects/status/1728339016641315041
The total number of MPs is now brought up to 123: NACT 60 + Lab/Green/TPM 55 + NZF 8.

I note this went uncontested by most of the "main" parties apart the incumbent.

Is this normal in such circumstances?

Idk about normal, but I do know that when Winston resigned from Tauranga back in 1993 (about seven months before the general election), his then newly-formed NZ First was the only major party running since the whole by-election was a stunt by Peters. The McGillicuddy Serious Party came in second with 2.15%, for reference.

Edit:
Thinking a bit more, Labour and the Greens were the only major parties in the 2017 Mount Albert by-election (won by Jacinda Ardern).

Coincidentally, a perennial candidate named Peter Wakeman ran in both of those by-elections.

So, it’s not uncommon for major parties to skip a by-election.

[Pericles]

Moving discussion of the new government to this thread, now that the election is over. The first item on the agenda is the mini-budget that the new Finance Minister Nicola Willis has promised to bring in before Christmas, which aims to cut the size of government agencies by 6.5% (supposedly only the 'back office'). Winston Peters has dominated the news by accusing the media of being bribed by the previous government for receiving a Covid support fund that was authorised when he was Jacinda Ardern's Deputy PM. The unexpected repeal of Labour's smokefree legislation has also gained attention, with concern from the health sector though it does give Willis billions more to play with (which was the motivator). Labour has also reshuffled its frontbench, those who didn't lose their seats largely kept the same rankings they had pre-election.

[Pericles]

I tried to quantify whether Labour MPs did worse in their electorates than past losing parties. I feel a suitable comparison is looking at the electorate MPs who stood again in the same electorate, and compare National's 2020 MPs and Labour's 2023 MPs. In both elections, the losing party took an absolute hammering.

The difference is really shocking. Of the 30 incumbent National MPs who stood again, 87% outran the party vote by double digits. 40% lost their electorates and only 23% lost their jobs as MPs. Now looking at the 33 incumbent Labour candidates, only 30% outran the party vote by double digits*. 64% lost their electorates, and 33% lost their jobs**.

I'd expect the same pattern would apply for most losing parties since usually the winner gets more electorates in the party vote than the candidate vote. Why Labour candidates did so badly is not immediately obvious. Sure their caucus didn't cover themselves in glory, but National 2020 is also a great example of a badly behaving caucus riven with scandal and leaking.


* The Labour overperformers were Duncan Webb, Barbara Edmonds, Michael Wood (interesting), Rachel Boyack, Glen Bennett, Greg O'Connor, Chris Hipkins, Kieran McAnulty and Megan Woods.
**Excluding losing MPs like Kelvin Davis who are giving up their list seats.