UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

A Wednesday trip to the Brecon Beacons.

Wednesday 22 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Powys, Talybont-on-Usk

Lib Dem 352 (51.0%, +23.4)
Con 241 (34.9%, +10.8)
Ind Fitzpatrick 83 (12.0%, new)
Ind Markinson 14 (2.0%, new)
(changes from 2022; note that the Conservative candidate this time stood as an Independent (22.8%) then)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

Thursday 23 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Newham; Plaistow North

Ind Naqvi 1266 (46.3%, new)
Lab 750 (27.4%, -39.1)
Ind Khan 274 (10.0%, new)
Con 257 (9.4%, -6.8)
Green 113 (4.1%, -13.2)
Lib Dem 73 (2.7%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind Naqvi gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lab, 1 Ind

Cambridge; Queen Edith's

Lib Dem 745 (35.0%, -2.9 on 2023, -7.0 on 2022)
Lab 678 (31.8%, +8.0 on 2023, +1.0 on 2022)
Con 454 (21.3%, +1.9 on 2023, +7.5 on 2022)
Green 252 (11.8%, +1.8 on 2023, -2.0 on 2022)

Lib Dem gain from Ind; ward now 3 Lib Dem

[YL]

I'd caution against over-interpreting the Plaistow North result.  Gaza may well be a factor, but it should be noted that Labour lost a neighbouring ward to an Independent, allied with this one, in July; I think it's at least partly local issues in Newham.

[Coldstream]

I'd caution against over-interpreting the Plaistow North result.  Gaza may well be a factor, but it should be noted that Labour lost a neighbouring ward to an Independent, allied with this one, in July; I think it's at least partly local issues in Newham.

It’s also one of those authorities where recently Labour get North Korea style majorities - so eventually there’s always gonna be an anti-establishment backlash.

[CumbrianLefty]

Up to a point, but the winning candidate made the current I/P conflict their main campaign focus (in contrast to the last Indy gain in Newham, which was very much based on local issues)

Rather better for Labour in Cambridge, though - and a contrast to the previous local byelection there.

[YL]

Thursday 30 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Camden; Highgate

Green 1513 (58.7%, +15.0)
Lab 740 (28.7%, -13.5)
Con 240 (9.3%, -0.3)
Lib Dem 84 (3.3%, -1.3)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Green hold; ward remains 2 Lab, 1 Green

County Durham; Dawdon

Lab 514 (55.9%, +5.4)
Ind Arthur 339 (36.9%, +3.5)
Con 56 (6.1%, -10.0)
Lib Dem 10 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote"; Arthur stood for the Seaham Community Party then, so I've given that as a comparison)

Lab hold

North Yorkshire; Sowerby & Topcliffe

Lib Dem 764 (41.6%, new)
Con 460 (25.1%, -23.0)
Green 306 (16.7%, -35.2)
Lab 250 (13.6%, new)
Yorkshire Party 35 (1.9%, new)
Monster Raving Loony 20 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem gain from Green

City of London; Farringdon Without

Temple and Farringdon Together elected unopposed

TFT hold

City of London; Portsoken (alderman)

Ind Goyal 284
Ind Chowdhury 36

Ind Goyal hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Some people getting rather excited about the Camden result because the ward is in the constituency of a certain K R Starmer - but its being moved out in the boundary changes for the next GE.

(apart from the inherent silliness of reading too much into a byelection anyway)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The ward - which is really odd, though most wards in Camden are - has had at least one Green councillor continually from 2006 onwards and Berry came very close in 2002 even.

[YL]

It is more comfortable by some way than past Green wins in the area, but with UK local by-elections a single data point is not very informative.

[YL]

Thursday 7 December

Andrew Teale's preview

Bromley; Hayes & Coney Hall

Con 1541 (48.0%, +5.3)
Lab 962 (30.0%, +3.8)
Lib Dem 526 (16.4%, +1.9)
Green 183 (5.7%, -10.9)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Con hold

Denbighshire; Rhyl South West

Lab 236 (51.3%, -7.7)
Ind Thomas 153 (33.3%, new)
Con 71 (15.4%, -12.0)
(changes from 2022 "top vote)

Lab hold

Hertfordshire County Council; Harpenden Rural

Lib Dem 1474 (58.3%, +33.0)
Con 766 (30.3%, -26.8)
Lab 168 (6.6%, -4.1)
Green 119 (4.7%, -2.2)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

St Albans; Sandridge & Wheathampstead

Lib Dem 793 (55.9%, +7.1)
Con 480 (33.8%, -4.8)
Green 78 (5.5%, -1.2)
Lab 68 (4.8%, -1.2)
(changes from 2023)

Lib Dem hold

North Norfolk; Briston

Lib Dem 342 (49.2%, -1.9)
Con 274 (39.4%, -0.8)
Green 64 (9.2%, new)
Lab 15 (2.2%, -5.6)
(changes from 2023)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

I'm not sure the Conservative candidate for Harpenden & Berkhamsted will be enjoying this batch of results very much.

Regarding the apparent Green collapse in Bromley, I suspect it's mostly that when people have three votes in an all up election some of them decide to use one of them on the single Green candidate and the other two on their usual party, but when there's only a single seat up the Greens can't benefit from that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, an "average vote" calculation would show a smaller drop for the Greens there.

[YL]

Thursday 14 December

Andrew Teale's preview

Warwickshire County Council; Dunsmore & Leam Valley

Con 911 (42.8%, -23.0)
Lib Dem 649 (30.5%, +23.6)
Lab 350 (16.4%, -2.5)
Green 219 (10.3%, +1.9)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Con hold

Rugby; Dunsmore (double vacancy)

Lib Dem 613 (37.3%, +17.0 on 2023, +5.0 on 2022, didn't stand in 2021)
Con 588 (35.7%, -9.1 on 2023, -13.9 on 2022, -32.2 on 2021)
Con 557
Lib Dem 548
Lab 299 (18.2%, -8.0 on 2023, n/c on 2022, -1.7 on 2021)
Lab 256
Green 145 (8.8%, +0.1 on 2023, didn't stand in 2022, -3.4 on 2021)
Green 89

1 Lib Dem gain from Con, 1 Con hold; ward now 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem

Swale; Abbey

Lib Dem 453 (44.8%, -16.1)
Green 173 (17.8%, new)
Lab 172 (17.7%, -3.1)
Con 154 (15.9%, -2.4)
Reform UK 36 (3.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Three Rivers; Chorleywood South & Maple Cross

Lib Dem 470 (52.0%, -1.0 on 2023 "top vote", -1.4 on 2022, -6.3 on 2021)
Con 242 (26.8%, -0.8 on 2023 "top vote", -5.5 on 2022, -5.1 on 2021)
Green 153 (16.9%, +6.6 on 2023 "top vote", +9.4 on 2022, +11.0 on 2021)
Lab 38 (4.2%, -5.9 on 2023 "top vote", -2.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Cotswold; Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South

Lib Dem 705 (48.5%, -7.2)
Con 624 (42.9%, +4.9)
Lab 73 (5.0%, -1.3)
Ind Regan 53 (3.6%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

North Kesteven; Billinghay Rural

Lib Dem 354 (41.1%)
Con 254 (29.9%)
Lincs Ind 225 (26.1%)
Ind Brand 29 (3.4%)
(2 Con elected unopposed in 2023)

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the Greens are up in Chorleywood since May, not down. The sums make no sense otherwise

[YL]

I think the Greens are up in Chorleywood since May, not down. The sums make no sense otherwise

Sorry, now corrected.

Decent week for the Lib Dems, and I see Reform UK swept all before them as usual.

[YL]

And finally...

Thursday 21 December

Andrew Teale's preview

Isle of Wight; Ventnor & St Lawrence

Con 274 (41.1%, +14.3)
Lab 248 (37.2%, +16.9)
Lib Dem 145 (21.7%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

Leicestershire County Council; Blaby & Glen Parva

Lib Dem 989 (61.2%, +12.5)
Con 320 (19.8%, -13.7)
Lab 190 (11.8%, +1.8)
Green 116 (7.2%, -0.5)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Blaby; Glen Parva

Lib Dem 438 (60.5%, +4.9)
Con 141 (19.5%, -2.3)
Lab 102 (14.1%, new)
Green 43 (5.9%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

[CumbrianLefty]

An eventful year draws to a close, this is it until 11 January 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour were hoping to win that IoW seat, but are now well placed for the regular election. The change figures are explained by the devolutionist Vectis Party coming 2nd ahead of Labour in 2021, with other localist groups coming 4th and 5th with non-negligible votes.

[Torrain]

With the final by-elections of the year done, here’s a visualisation of results in the by-elections held since the May local elections, via Election Maps UK:


Thanks again to YL for posting the results in this thread each week, it's been a great resource.

[DL]

Its amazing how few local byelections result in switches between Labour and Tory

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Its amazing how few local byelections result in switches between Labour and Tory

New Telegraph talking point discovered! Disgruntled conservatives still "refuse" to vote for Keir's Labour in council by-elections. Here's how it validates Rishi's grand plan.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its amazing how few local byelections result in switches between Labour and Tory

To a degree, it depends on what seats come up. There were still (I think) 10 Labour gains from Tory in 2023 and four the other way - not totally trivial.