FWIW, they also had McAuliffe up 11 points in late October.
I still think this one will be closer than most people here expect, but Northam should win in the end. However, if Gillespie DOES lose in a landslide, I really doubt this race (or the special election, for that matter) would have been winnable for Republicans with Clinton in the White House either. Anyway, Lean D for now.
1) Republicans make up their minds real late in Virginia
2) The Government shutdown had just ended on 10/16, so I think that number was a bit inflated at that time
Without the shutdown I think Cuccinelli wins by like 1-2%.