How did George Bush win New Jersey so handily in 1988? (user search)
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  How did George Bush win New Jersey so handily in 1988? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did George Bush win New Jersey so handily in 1988?  (Read 4299 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: May 22, 2017, 09:48:31 AM »

If I had to guess, I'd say (1) the Northeast still had a lot of ancestral Republicanism which expressed itself; (2) those in NYC's NJ suburbs were put off by Dukakis' "liberalism" as many suburbanites were in the '80s; (3) Dukakis was unpopular among conservative Catholics in the state for his stand on abortion and the death penalty; and (4) Jewish voters still gave Bush around 30%, much better than any subsequent GOP Presidential candidate.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2017, 05:51:22 PM »

Bill Clinton deserves a lot of credit for helping to reduce crime

No. Crime rates had already been slowing falling for a couple years before he took office and the "solution" he came up with was not worth it any perceived "benefit" that came.
Both are half right. Violent crime rate peaked in 1991, but didn't start falling precipitously until 1994-1999; it fell much slower after 1999.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2018, 10:18:12 AM »

Because back then it was suburbanites who were racists and unreachable by the Democratic message, whereas now it's rurals. Smiley
To be fair, outside of West Virginia and Iowa, Bush soundly won rural America.
This isn't really true. Dukakis did well in places like Northern Alabama, East Kentucky, Western PA... In fact, I'm pretty sure that a slight majority of counties he won were rural.
Still, I'm sure that most Trump 2016 voters who were 18+ in 1988 are Bush 1988 voters.
True, especially because (1) the 1988 election had no age gradient to speak of, with most voters under 25, under 30, under 40, etc. voting for Bush, whereas in 2016 those old enough to vote in 1988 went 53% Trump; (2) many suburbanites for Bush in 1988 had moved (or retired) to exurban or rural areas by 2016.
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