State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The next competitive election is the Connecticut seat on the 27th.

KY HD-49 may surprise.

Belcher is almost for sure reclaiming her seat, Likely D.

[Tekken_Guy]

The next competitive election is the Connecticut seat on the 27th.

KY HD-49 may surprise.

Belcher is almost for sure reclaiming her seat, Likely D.

Trump won 75% of the vote in that seat. It's a long-shot, at best.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final OK Numbers:

STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 27 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
75 of 75 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
CASEY MURDOCK (REP)   260      575      5,349      6,184   67.97%
AMBER JENSEN (DEM)   86      263      2,565      2,914   32.03%
Total   346      838      7,914      9,098   

  

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's it for tonight. Next election is in LA on Saturday.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

[LimoLiberal]

The next competitive election is the Connecticut seat on the 27th.

KY HD-49 may surprise.

Belcher is almost for sure reclaiming her seat, Likely D.

Yeah I'm going to be a little surprised if she loses.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

There's a reason you're seeing gigantic swings in Oklahoma but backwards swings in CT: state politics are... local

The democrats in Connecticut messed up the state (specifically Dan Malloy).

The local Republicans in CT tend to be more moderate.

Therefore a lot of people who voted Clinton are much more inclined to vote for CT Republicans. I would highly consider voting republicans locally if I lived in CT.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

It does make sense when you realize just how unpopular Malloy is among people who actually live in Connecticut.

[Former Kentuckian]

The next competitive election is the Connecticut seat on the 27th.

KY HD-49 may surprise.

Belcher is almost for sure reclaiming her seat, Likely D.

Trump won 75% of the vote in that seat. It's a long-shot, at best.

Trump won 75% of the vote in that seat while Belcher won 49.58% the same year. She shouldn't be underestimated.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

It does make sense when you realize just how unpopular Malloy is among people who actually live in Connecticut.

Trump is more unpopular in CT, though.

And yeah, Belcher will win.

Yeah... but Trump isn't on the ballot in a local election. People are able to distance local politics from national politics.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Final GA Numbers in. Embarrassing performance for Democrats here. With the races last month, and now this race, there is clearly something seriously wrong with the GA DEM PARTY. Doesn't bode well for GA-GOV 2018.

Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
TREVA GEAR (DEM)23.55 %778
JOHN LAHOOD (REP)70.73 %2,337
BRUCE PHELPS (REP)2.21 %73
COY REAVES (REP)3.51 %116
3,304

I'm not concerned at all; actually I'm outraged because I looked at these results closely and it's pretty obvious the Republicans committed voter fraud here.

[Former Kentuckian]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

[LimoLiberal]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

I hope the KY Dem party is organizing hard on the ground over there. With his widow running, this should be an exceedingly easy pickup.

[Tekken_Guy]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

It does make sense when you realize just how unpopular Malloy is among people who actually live in Connecticut.

Trump is more unpopular in CT, though.

And yeah, Belcher will win.

Yeah... but Trump isn't on the ballot in a local election. People are able to distance local politics from national politics.

Not anymore. Trump has loomed over ever state GOP candidate in special elections this past year.

Also, by your logic, Malloy isn't on the ballot either. Same deal.

[Virginiá]

Yeah... but Trump isn't on the ballot in a local election. People are able to distance local politics from national politics.

Not usually. Looking at past elections, it's pretty clear national politics means a lot, and it makes sense when you consider how obscure some of these legislative races can be. All the media really focuses on is national politics, with some state stuff here and there. I'd bet most people can't even name the lawmaker(s) who represent them. That is why presidential approval ratings are a great predictor for downballot races.

The only times voters buck this trend is when the state government (and the party that controls it) becomes such a problem that it essentially blots out the sun, like in Kansas, Oklahoma and Connecticut.

[Former Kentuckian]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

I hope the KY Dem party is organizing hard on the ground over there. With his widow running, this should be an exceedingly easy pickup.

Linda has been canvassing with Alison Lundergan Grimes and Andy Beshear, canvassing with unions, and she's also been the only one to show up to candidate forums. Like her husband Dan, Rebecca is doing the bare minimum and mostly relying on passing around pamphlets and social media posts about abortion and guns.

https://www.facebook.com/LindaLHBelcher/

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah... but Trump isn't on the ballot in a local election. People are able to distance local politics from national politics.

Not usually. Looking at past elections, it's pretty clear national politics means a lot, and it makes sense when you consider how obscure some of these legislative races can be. All the media really focuses on is national politics, with some state stuff here and there. I'd bet most people can't even name the lawmaker(s) who represent them. That is why presidential approval ratings are a great predictor for downballot races.

The only times voters buck this trend is when the state government (and the party that controls it) becomes such a problem that it essentially blots out the sun, like in Kansas, Oklahoma and Connecticut.

I'm a heroin-esque political junkie and I still forget who my delegate and state senator are. Doesn't help that there are like 6 representing Arlington county. Thanks VA-GOP Gerrymander!

[Former Kentuckian]

Also, keep an eye on KY HD-89. It's an insanely tough district for Democrats, but they have a fantastic, energetic recruit (someone I know personally) in Kelly Smith: https://www.facebook.com/KellySmithKY/ What she gets on February 27 will be a better barometer of the political mood in Kentucky than Belcher's district.

[LimoLiberal]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

I hope the KY Dem party is organizing hard on the ground over there. With his widow running, this should be an exceedingly easy pickup.

Linda has been canvassing with Alison Lundergan Grimes and Andy Beshear, canvassing with unions, and she's also been the only one to show up to candidate forums. Like her husband Dan, Rebecca is doing the bare minimum and mostly relying on passing around pamphlets and social media posts about abortion and guns.

https://www.facebook.com/LindaLHBelcher/

Awesome. Checked out Rebecca Johnson's facebook, she's barely getting a comment a post. I take these metrics very seriously in 2000 vote special-elections. They're basically like little enthusiasm polls.

[Boston Bread]

Maps for SD-27:
https://twitter.com/burace17/status/963601245549326336

[Holmes]

Neat, Jensen won some precincts.

[Doimper]

Final GA Numbers in. Embarrassing performance for Democrats here. With the races last month, and now this race, there is clearly something seriously wrong with the GA DEM PARTY. Doesn't bode well for GA-GOV 2018.

Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
TREVA GEAR (DEM)23.55 %778
JOHN LAHOOD (REP)70.73 %2,337
BRUCE PHELPS (REP)2.21 %73
COY REAVES (REP)3.51 %116
3,304

I'm not concerned at all; actually I'm outraged because I looked at these results closely and it's pretty obvious the Republicans committed voter fraud here.

[Virginiá]

Basically my thoughts as well. You could argue that this isn’t really true of gubernatorial or other, more low-profile statewide races taking place in midterm or presidential years, but even that’s debatable.

I'm not entirely sure if you could boil it down into an average "penalty," but gubernatorial elections are definitely affected the same way as everything else:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

Every time a wave hit, the party on the losing side of it predictably lost ground with governors offices. The last election that really breaks from this trend is 1986, but I suppose Democrats were pretty overextended in an environment whose natural balance of power was moving more towards Republicans downballot.

[Sestak]

Final GA Numbers in. Embarrassing performance for Democrats here. With the races last month, and now this race, there is clearly something seriously wrong with the GA DEM PARTY. Doesn't bode well for GA-GOV 2018.

Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
TREVA GEAR (DEM)23.55 %778
JOHN LAHOOD (REP)70.73 %2,337
BRUCE PHELPS (REP)2.21 %73
COY REAVES (REP)3.51 %116
3,304

I'm not concerned at all; actually I'm outraged because I looked at these results closely and it's pretty obvious the Republicans committed voter fraud here.

[Beet]

Georgia is the touchscreen-only state where election data was wiped clean after the state was sued for posting voter registration files online.