Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[The_Doctor]

Trump has never been teflon. He lost the popular vote for one. He's been broadly unpopular since day 6 of his presidency and gotten more unpopular since then. The gawking over his base underestimates the fact that Trump remains unpopular with everyone else and that the strongly disapprove beats the strongly approve by a wide margin. Routinely 55% of the country disapproves of him, numbers Ronald Reagan never saw or Bill Clinton (at least on a sustained level).

If he was truly teflon he would be doing better than he is today. In fact if this continues he's on track to be the first president to be unpopular for all of his first six months by August 1. Needless to say that's unprecedented (let alone if he makes it to next January 20 without a single favorable approval rating).

[The_Doctor]

Basically the only reason he's at 38-42% approval is because the economy hasn't yet hit a recession, so his supporters can tune out all the drama.

But as I keep pointing out, we're not gonna go to 2020 without a recession. This should shave his ratings to the low 30s or high 20s right around the midterms or right after. The economic expansion may not slow down until beginning of 2018.

Here's a thought. Nixon was impeached during an economic downturn. There might be a reason for that; Nixon's supporters lost faith in him in hard times as the news became unmanageable from all directions.

Edit: the Great Recession lasted until June 2009. So definitely something in Trumpy's term. I doubt very much the economic expansion will last a full 12 years past 2020.

[Sumner 1868]

The thing many don't realize is that Trump having no aura of leadership helps him with his base. It's easy to believe people are conspiring against him when everyone knows he isn't really in charge of policymaking.

[Person Man]

Basically the only reason he's at 38-42% approval is because the economy hasn't yet hit a recession, so his supporters can tune out all the drama.

But as I keep pointing out, we're not gonna go to 2020 without a recession. This should shave his ratings to the low 30s or high 20s right around the midterms or right after. The economic expansion may not slow down until beginning of 2018.

Here's a thought. Nixon was impeached during an economic downturn. There might be a reason for that; Nixon's supporters lost faith in him in hard times as the news became unmanageable from all directions.

Edit: the Great Recession lasted until June 2009. So definitely something in Trumpy's term. I doubt very much the economic expansion will last a full 12 years past 2020.

If there is none by July 2019, it would be a record.

[Tintrlvr]

But other countries have gone much longer. Australia hasn't had a recession in 25 years. I don't think a recession during Trump's term is necessarily going to happen, though the odds are decent and I agree that one would send his approvals into a tailspin.

[pbrower2a]

We have an aging recovery, one that has lost the political leadership that fostered it. Maybe political gridlock will continue, in which case little really changes. But should wee get the radical change that the Trump Administration, the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks! and the Birch Society want, then we can expect consumer spending to crater long before any alleged benefits of new job-creating investment  can even partially offset a much poorer America. Corporate America does not want to expand employment; the only investment that can create jobs will be mom-and-pop startups.  Basically, salaried and hourly workers exchange (if not as voluntarily as it seems) steady pay for the unpredictable income of small-business owners.

The only employment that I can see rising under Trump will be in domestic service. Most manufacturing markets are saturated. Consumer spending aside from food and energy is largely replacement, whether of worn-out, broken, or obsolete stuff. 

[Inmate Trump]

But if he starts jailing reporters and detracting citizens, then his approval ratings will start to skyrocket.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We're in a recession now.

[The_Doctor]

We're in a recession now.

Evidence?

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 27th)

Approve 42% (+1)
Disapprove 53% (-1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

b]Rasmussen[/b]

LV:
45% (-1)
55% (+1)


From 46-47% last week.

[Sir Mohamed]

So, Rassy is yet trolling again? 45% seems definitely too high. But if true, would be shocking.

[JA]

So, Rassy is yet trolling again? 45% seems definitely too high. But if true, would be shocking.

Why? Gallup already has him back up to 42%. 46% of Americans who voted in 2016 cast their ballot for Trump. It doesn't particularly surprise me that he would retain, despite his abysmal Presidency, the support of the same people who didn't care about his countless other controversies and scandals during the campaign. As far as they are concerned, most of this negative press coverage is just "fake news."

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 28th)

Approve 42% (-/-)
Disapprove 53% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Why? Gallup already has him back up to 42%. 46% of Americans who voted in 2016 cast their ballot for Trump. It doesn't particularly surprise me that he would retain, despite his abysmal Presidency, the support of the same people who didn't care about his countless other controversies and scandals during the campaign. As far as they are concerned, most of this negative press coverage is just "fake news."

Given how polarized the country is, and the declining respect for the media combined, his stubborn numbers are easier to believe. His presidency has really just started and it's clear it will take time for him to go any lower than he is now (mid-30s - low 40s). Aside from his staunch supporters who truly believe everything is just a conspiracy against him, many of these soft supporters aren't going to turn on him that quickly. People don't often want to admit when they are wrong about something.

However, as it's probably been pointed out elsewhere before, Trump's 'strong approval' numbers are pretty low. He has a lot of soft support that could vanish rather quickly if the country slides into a recession, or some other event happens that produces tangible negative effects on his supporters. Otherwise, there are probably limits to what the whole Russia scandal dealio can do.

[Inmate Trump]

I wouldn't say that the country is polarized...it's more that about half of the voting population are stupid.

It really is as simple as that.

[hopper]

CBS/YouGov poll of adults:

I am a strong Trump supporter, period - 19%
I am a Trump supporter, but to keep my support, he has to deliver what I want - 22%
I am against Trump now, but could reconsider him if he does a good job - 19%
I am strongly against Trump, period - 40%

Not exactly an approval poll, but if you grouped the people who say they support him and those who are against him, it's 41/59.

Also, deporting illegal immigrants and banning Muslims are more important to Trump supporters than cutting taxes.

Yeah but Trump isn't banning all Muslims.

[hopper]

What has he done for those low-income, low-information voters that he gulled in November?

Actually nothing for low-income voters to answer your question.

[hopper]

What has he done for those low-income, low-information voters that he gulled in November?

True, but those same voters will happily back him in 2020.

Maybe maybe not remember a lot those voters were Obama-Trump Voters.

[Tintrlvr]

CBS/YouGov poll of adults:

I am a strong Trump supporter, period - 19%
I am a Trump supporter, but to keep my support, he has to deliver what I want - 22%
I am against Trump now, but could reconsider him if he does a good job - 19%
I am strongly against Trump, period - 40%

Not exactly an approval poll, but if you grouped the people who say they support him and those who are against him, it's 41/59.

Also, deporting illegal immigrants and banning Muslims are more important to Trump supporters than cutting taxes.

Yeah but Trump isn't banning all Muslims.

He obviously would if not for the constitutional issues associated with doing so. The various complications of the EOs were blatantly in order to try (unsuccessfully thus far) to avoid them being found unconstitutional and not for any other reason.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Why? Gallup already has him back up to 42%. 46% of Americans who voted in 2016 cast their ballot for Trump. It doesn't particularly surprise me that he would retain, despite his abysmal Presidency, the support of the same people who didn't care about his countless other controversies and scandals during the campaign. As far as they are concerned, most of this negative press coverage is just "fake news."

Given how polarized the country is, and the declining respect for the media combined, his stubborn numbers are easier to believe. His presidency has really just started and it's clear it will take time for him to go any lower than he is now (mid-30s - low 40s). Aside from his staunch supporters who truly believe everything is just a conspiracy against him, many of these soft supporters aren't going to turn on him that quickly. People don't often want to admit when they are wrong about something.

However, as it's probably been pointed out elsewhere before, Trump's 'strong approval' numbers are pretty low. He has a lot of soft support that could vanish rather quickly if the country slides into a recession, or some other event happens that produces tangible negative effects on his supporters. Otherwise, there are probably limits to what the whole Russia scandal dealio can do.

Or, you know, I hope so

[The_Doctor]

Her analysis isn't grounded in fantasy, it's pretty reasonable. The recession will probably erode some of his support (PNM - lower tax receipts might be a sign of a slowing economy by the way). A lot of his support is probably because the good times are strong enough for people to be able to ignore the forest fire of the White House.

[Technocracy Timmy]

And really, from a Democratic electoral perspective, it's probably best that there isn't a recession for a while anyway (if there has to be one), since if it happened to soon into his presidency, Trump could credibly blame it on Obama. But if it happens in 2018 or later, who the hell is going to believe him?

Is there any precedent for this? Specifically a President coming into power during a recovery/expansion left by their predecessor then successfully putting the blame of a recession early in their first term on their predecessor?

[I Won - Get Over It]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/869249365273178112

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Remember DAY 130!

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/869249365273178112

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Remember DAY 130!

President Trump also has a lower approval rating at this point in his Preisdency than Barack Obama, George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, John F. Kennedy, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Harry Truman.

But yes, congratulations on Trump being slightly more popular at this point than Clinton (and possibly Ford) were at this point in their Presidencies. Such a great accomplishment for the man who lost the popular vote to the second most disliked Presidential candidate in modern American history.