Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[Lachi]

Koike is 54 points above in the approval ratings, comparing to -13 for Abe in Tokyo?!

There is no way Koike will win in anything other than at least a substantial victory.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 46 out of 127 called

TPFA        39
TPFA(Ind)   1
KP             4
LDP           0
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            2

Some of these exit polls look horrific for LDP.  In some 2- seat districts the exit polls literally had TPFA first, TPFA backed Independent second, JCP third and LDP forth.   

[Lachi]

LDP to have their worst result in history, and could fall as low as 13 seats.

[jaichind]

Koike is 54 points above in the approval ratings, comparing to -13 for Abe in Tokyo?!

There is no way Koike will win in anything other than at least a substantial victory.

-13 for Abe is a bit worse than expected but mostly consistent with recent national polls on Abe approve once we calibrate that Tokyo tend to be more anti-Abe than most other areas.

[jaichind]

LDP to have their worst result in history, and could fall as low as 13 seats.

Yes, 38 seats in 2009 was the worst in LDP history.  Most other exit polls has LDP in the mid to high 20s so most likely they will avoid 13 seats humiliation.   On the other hand falling below 30 seat means that there are medium term chances that Abe will have to go.

[jaichind]

Some votes coming in 1- member district 千代田(Chiyoda).  So far pretty bad for LDP.  It is TPFA 59% LDP 32% JCP backed Ind. 9%

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 48 out of 127 called

TPFA        39
TPFA(Ind)   1
KP             6
LDP           0
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            2


Asahi  now has it at with 49 out of 127 called

TPFA        30
TPFA(Ind)   1
KP           13
LDP           2
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

[Lachi]

Japan's elections make Australia's seem like Usain Bolt when he runs the 100 meters...

[Lachi]

LDP have won their first seat of the night.

[jaichind]

Japan's elections make Australia's seem like Usain Bolt when he runs the 100 meters...

Part of it is because what is on NHK are fairly late compared to the data at the local count centers.  This is why a lot of times the media calls the race for one candidate when the other candidate is ahead on the NHK count. 

[Lachi]

Japan's elections make Australia's seem like Usain Bolt when he runs the 100 meters...

Part of it is because what is on NHK are fairly late compared to the data at the local count centers.  This is why a lot of times the media calls the race for one candidate when the other candidate is ahead on the NHK count.  

Makes sense.

Also, are NHK rounding up the individual candidates vote totals to the nearest 500 or something?

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 51 out of 127 called

TPFA        39
TPFA(Ind)   1
KP             8
LDP           1
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            2


One of the 2- seat districts NHK already called one of them where TPFA won both seats.  It was not one of the ones I called that way.  LDP might be facing meltdown if this is a trend.

Asahi  now has it at with 51 out of 127 called

TPFA        31
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           13
LDP           2
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

Note that the NHK 51 seats called are NOT the same as the 51 seats Asahi are calling.  Both are using their local agents at the counting centers.  I guess a superset of the two media outlets should be around 70 seats or so are de facto called.

[jaichind]

Exit poll by age

Green - TPFA
Red - LDP
Pink - KP
Purple - JCP
Blue - DP

TPFA strongest in the middle age section

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 57 out of 127 called

TPFA        40
TPFA(Ind)   1
KP           10
LDP           3
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

Asahi  now has it at with 55 out of 127 called

TPFA        33
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           13
LDP           4
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

[jaichind]

NHK has called another 2- seat district where TPFA and pro-TFPA independent (ex-DP) has won both seats.  This confirms that LDP is looking at a below 30 seat count unless LDP can pull off some miracle in the 5- 6- and 8- seat districts.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 62 out of 127 called

TPFA        43
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           11
LDP           3
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

Asahi  now has it at with 59 out of 127 called

TPFA        36
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           14
LDP           4
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

[jaichind]

It seems that while my projection vote share are not going to be far off, I got the pattern incorrect.  I assumed that the LDP vote will fall apart on densely populated areas but hold up in the 1- and 2- sparely populated areas where machine politics will rule the day.  It seems so far I got my pattern reserved.    LDP will do a seat or two better than I expected in the dense areas but will get crushed in the 2- seat districts.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 65 out of 127 called

TPFA        43
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           12
LDP           3
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            4

Asahi  now has it at with 64 out of 127 called

TPFA        37
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           17
LDP           5
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 68 out of 127 called

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           13
LDP           3
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            4

Asahi  now has it at with 67 out of 127 called  (it uncalled a KP win)

TPFA        41
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP           16
LDP           5
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            3

[Lachi]

What is happening with the democrats?

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 70 out of 127 called

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           14
LDP           4
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            4

Asahi  now has it at with 74 out of 127 called 

TPFA        43
TPFA(Ind)   4
KP           16
LDP           7
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            4

[jaichind]

What is happening with the democrats?

Pretty bad.  It seems unlikely they can get across 4 seats.  On the other hand ex-DP independents that ran with TPFA support and de facto support of local DP branches seems to be doing well.

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 77 out of 127 called

TPFA        45
TPFA(Ind)   3
KP           15
LDP           8
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            6

Asahi  now has it at with 78 out of 127 called  

TPFA        44
TPFA(Ind)   4
KP           17
LDP           7
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            6

[Lachi]

WOO! Dems win their first seat!

[Lachi]

KOIKE NOW HAS A MAJORITY