Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[windjammer]

VA-GOV

49.8% Northam (D)
47.8% Gillespie (R)

If Perriello somehow wins the Democratic nomination:

49.2% Perriello (D)
48.5% Gillespie (R)

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot (like in 2009):

50.8% Northam (D)
49.2% Gillespie (R)

50.2% Perriello (D)
49.8% Gillespie (R)

NJ-GOV

58% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)

New York mayoral election

78% DeBlasio (D, inc.)
22% Republican and Others/Who care

Are you serious? You really believe VA GOV is going to be so close with Trump at -15 in approval right now?

[windjammer]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

[windjammer]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

I mean, Clinton carried 51 house seats, and 46 by more than 5 points. Iniially my prediction was more 45-55 but considering Trump has a 35% approval ratings in VA, I really expect VA republicans to suffer from many losses.

[windjammer]

Kingsweden, Virginia and everyone else, I just looked at the incumbent not running for reelection:


1) Mark Dudenhefer (R) - District 2
Won by HRC  and Obama by 20 points.

2) Bill Howell (R) - District 28
Won by  Trump and Obama by less than 1 point.

3) Dave Albo (R) - District 42
Won by Obama by 6 points and by HRC by 23 points.
 
4) Peter Farrell (R) - District 56 Safe Rep

5) Rick Morris (R) - District 64 Safe Rep

6) Jimmie Massie (R) - District 72
Won by Romney by 9 points and by HRC by 5 points.

7) Daun Sessoms Hester (D) - District 89 Safe Dem


Just based on the incumbent retiring they will already pick up 4 seats.

[windjammer]

I looked at the VA house assembly presidential results
71   D   89,7   10,3   
69   D   87,4   12,6   
49   D   84,1   15,9   
89   D   82,2   17,8   
47   D   81,8   18,2   
46   D   81,6   18,4   
45   D   80,4   19,6   
70   D   80,2   19,8   
57   D   80,1   19,9   
92   D   79   21   
90   D   77,9   22,1   
48   D   76,5   23,5   
95   D   76,4   23,6   
53   D   76,2   23,8   
52   D   75,9   24,1   
74   D   75,4   24,6   
77   D   75,4   24,6   
80   D   74,6   25,4   
38   D   74,4   25,6   
36   D   73,7   26,3   
43   D   73,6   26,4   
44   D   73   27   
39   D   71   29   
35   D   70,9   29,1   
37   D   70   30   
63   D   69,1   30,9   
86   D   68,8   31,2   
41   D   67,4   32,6   
67   R   64,2   35,8   
11   D   64,1   35,9   
87   D   63,5   36,5   
79   D   62,5   37,5   
42   R   62,2   37,8   
34   D   61,4   38,6   
32   R   61,1   38,9   
2   R   60,7   39,3   
93   D   60,2   39,8   
75   D   58,1   41,9   
13   R   57,8   42,2   
50   R   57,4   42,6   40th
40   R   55,9   44,1   
68   R   55,9   44,1   
31   R   55,4   44,6   
51   R   54,7   45,3   
73   R   54,2   45,8   45th
10   R   53,3   46,7   
94   R   52,9   47,1   
72   R   52,8   47,2   
21   R   52,4   47,6   
12   R   51,6   48,4   50th
100   R   51,4   48,6   
85   R   49,7   50,3   
28   R   49,4   50,6   
27   R   48,8   51,2   
84   R   47,7   52,3   
62   R   47,3   52,7   
83   R   46,2   53,8   
76   R   45,9   54,1   
14   R   45,8   54,2   
26   R   45,8   54,2   
91   R   44,3   55,7   
54   R   44,2   55,8   
96   R   44   56   
60   R   43   57   
33   R   42,9   57,1   
88   R   42,8   57,2   
58   R   42,1   57,9   
82   R   41,7   58,3   
56   R   40,5   59,5   
61   R   40,3   59,7   
99   R   40,3   59,7   
78   R   40,1   59,9   
55   R   39,2   60,8   
20   R   39,1   60,9   
25   R   39,1   60,9   
81   R   39,1   60,9   
64   R   38,2   61,8   
66   R   38,2   61,8   
16   R   37,9   62,1   
30   R   37,1   62,9   
17   R   36,9   63,1   
18   R   36,9   63,1   
65   R   36,5   63,5   
59   R   35,9   64,1   
29   R   35,3   64,7   
8   R   34,9   65,1   
23   R   34,4   65,6   
98   R   34,2   65,8   
7   R   34   66   
22   R   33,3   66,7   
24   R   32,3   67,7   
97   R   29,3   70,7   
9   R   27,3   72,7   
19   R   26,7   73,3   
15   R   26   74   
5   R   21,9   78,1   
4   R   21,4   78,6   
6   R   21,4   78,6   
1   R   18   82   
3   R   16,7   83,3   


So Hillary won 51 seats,
She won 40 seats by more than 15 points
She won 45 seats by more than 8 points
She won 48 seats by more than 5 points

[windjammer]

VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33