Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Gass3268]

Virginia almost never votes in a governor of the same party as the White House,  2013 is literally the only exception in modern history.

Trump is utterly hated in Virginia too,  so the Republican's chances there look pretty darn small, no matter how good Gillespie supposedly is there.  (Which I disagree with,  Gillespie is a mediocre candidate)

Cooch probably wins in 2013 if it wasn't for the Government shutdown.

[Gass3268]

Northam wins by 5

Murphy wins by 15

[Gass3268]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

I mean, Clinton carried 51 house seats, and 46 by more than 5 points. Iniially my prediction was more 45-55 but considering Trump has a 35% approval ratings in VA, I really expect VA republicans to suffer from many losses.

I really don't know. I hope you are right, but Democrats lost some of the seats Clinton won (even some she won by more than five) in the 20 point range in 2015. I might develop a guide to see where the Dems best chances of a pick up could be.

[Gass3268]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

Two different Democrats have ~$30,000 more than Marshall.

[Gass3268]

Yeah it could go either way. I don't really know much about Eastern Shore politics, but I assume Gillespie is good enough to hold on to a plurality in a solidly Republican county even if Northam has hometown appeal.

Early vote in Accomack is almost 200% what it was in 2013. I have a gut feeling they are pumped about having an Eastern Shore governor.

[Gass3268]

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.

Why would the indictments help Gillespie?