Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (user search)
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  Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 28916 times)
Kamala
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Posts: 3,499
Madagascar


« on: May 13, 2017, 12:10:11 PM »

Hmm, I really don't see Gillespie doing all that well. While I know he over performed polls in 2014, he still didn't manage to unseat Warner. Considering that was a heavy Republican year, I would say his 2014 performance, 48.3%, is closer to a ceiling than it is a floor.
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Kamala
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,499
Madagascar


« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2017, 03:49:10 PM »

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 

Clinton was doing far better in the late polls though. Last 5 polls for President give you Clinton +5.0 (Average), versus Northam +0.7.

Clinton's average also wasn't littered by garbage like The Trolling Company.

The last Quinn poll for Clinton was +12. The last WashPo poll was was Clinton +6. The last Chris Newport poll was Clinton +6. Northam is right near all these polls.

The only major difference I see is Roanoke - was Clinton +7, tie for Northam.

Suffolk didn't even poll Virginia in 2016.
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