Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Virginiá]

Are you serious? You really believe VA GOV is going to be so close with Trump at -15 in approval right now?

iirc, Trump actually has an even worse approval rating in Virginia - something like 20+ points underwater. I'm more inclined to think the Democratic nominee wins by a comfortable amount (similar to Clinton, or more), with maybe a ceiling around ~10 points in the best case scenario. Gillespie had a favorable environment in 2014, and while he did well then I don't think that means he will this time. Though, I'd like to see some polls once the candidates are chosen.

Murphy - double digits easy. 12 - 16 points is my guess for now.

[Virginiá]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

[Virginiá]

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.

[Virginiá]

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

[pic]

Interestingly enough, I remember a while ago looking at polls for Northam that also had HoD generic numbers, and it wasn't uncommon for Democrats to lead in the HoD poll by more than Northam's margin. Or in other words, the Republican brand is not so great in Virginia right now.

Even if Gillespie pulled off a slim win, HoD Republicans are a bit overextended at this point. They are almost surely going to suffer a net loss, and probably not a tiny one either.

[Virginiá]

I think the mods can unsticky this thread now, no?

Oopsies. Yes