Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[heatcharger]

VA-GOV:

50.8% Northam
46.3% Gillespie
2.9% Other

49.9% Perriello
47.3% Gillespie
2.8% Other

52.7% Northam/Perriello
44.2% Stewart
3.1% Other

I think the third-party vote is gonna be much smaller than 2013, although I'd laugh if Sarvis ran again.

VA-HOD:

D+11 with Northam, D+6 with Perriello

NJ-GOV:

59% Murphy
39% Guadagno

NYC-Mayor:

De Blasio landslide

[heatcharger]

Oh, I forgot to give my VA-LG and VA-AG predictions:

VA-LG

51.9% Fairfax (D) (assuming he wins the primary, which is not guaranteed)
47.5% Republican (I have no idea who's gonna win the R primary for this one, it's been pretty wild)
0.6% Other

VA-AG

52.4% Herring (D)
47.2% Adams (R) (he's actually a pretty good candidate, so don't expect a landslide here)
0.4% Other

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling. 

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

IMO he's focusing way too much on social issues to do meaningfully better than Clinton in any of the rural areas.  Unless you think Fairfax would give Perriello a lower ceiling?

I agree with you on this part, but both candidates have just been offering red meat to the primary base. The difference between the two is that I think Northam is more capable of pivoting to the middle since that's his equilibrium position, while Perriello won't be steered off his "bold progressive" course. That's why I think he's not gonna do as well in rural VA as his supporters think, especially outside his old district.

Also, Northam already revealed the path to a large Democratic victory in the state in 2013. Do I think he will do as well as last time in rural VA (not necessarily Appalachia)? Not really, but any Democrat winning Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach by 9 points the way Northam did is on track for a sizable win. His military background is worth something, as far as I'm aware.

Now Perriello does have an ace up his sleeve: Obama. From what I know, Perriello's staff is comprised of both Hillary and Bernie "people", but if they're smart, both wings will realize that keeping Bernie out is a must and getting Obama to campaign for him would be huge in NoVA and the predominantly black corridor of Eastern VA. Sanders isn't complete anathema Northern Virginia, but yes, Obama and his brand of liberalism are much more compatible across many demographics, and no, I don't think you can have both.

I don't have confidence that Perriello's campaign is disciplined enough to pull off that scheme though, so while I suppose Perriello has a marginally higher ceiling, Northam is more likely to hit his.

[heatcharger]

VA-GOV:
Northam - 50.7%
Gillespie - 47.0%
Hyra - 2.3%

VA-LG:
Fairfax - 52.1%
Vogel 47.5%

VA-AG:
Herring - 52.4%
Adams - 47.3%

VA-HoD:
Republicans - 58
Democrats - 42 (+8)

NJ-GOV:
Murphy - 57.0%
Guadagno - 41.5%

[heatcharger]

Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 49.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.0%
Other: 1.5%

There is no “Other”.

[heatcharger]

Northam 51.6%
Gillespie 46.1%
Hyra 2.3%

Fairfax 52.2%
Vogel 47.4%

Herring 52.6%
Adams 47.1%

Discuss.

[heatcharger]

Yeah it could go either way. I don't really know much about Eastern Shore politics, but I assume Gillespie is good enough to hold on to a plurality in a solidly Republican county even if Northam has hometown appeal.

[heatcharger]

VA-GOV:
Northam - 50.7%
Gillespie - 47.0%
Hyra - 2.3%

VA-LG:
Fairfax - 52.1% 51.6%
Vogel - 47.5% 48.0%

VA-AG:
Herring - 52.4%
Adams - 47.3%

VA-HoD:
Republicans - 58
Democrats - 42 (+8)

NJ-GOV:
Murphy - 57.0%
Guadagno - 41.5%

Going back to these original predictions with one tweak, which is slightly less ambitious but still confident of a slight Northam victory. Still the same map for the main event though: