Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (user search)
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  Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 28924 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 13, 2017, 11:54:04 AM »
« edited: November 05, 2017, 01:03:56 PM by MT Treasurer »

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG


51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

New York mayoral election

69% DeBlasio (D, inc.)
31% Others
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2017, 09:35:46 PM »

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2017, 01:39:24 PM »

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

No, I'm with you. Perriello is way too Bernie-esque to get the absurd NoVA numbers that Northam could get. And Northam has more potential to overperform on the Eastern Shore/Virginia Beach with his geographical appeal and military background

My thoughts as well, plus I think his supposed strength in rural VA is dubious and quite exaggerated, to say the least. I could be wrong of course, but I'd be surprised if Perriello didn't make social issues a key focus of his campaign as well if he won the nomination.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2017, 02:04:28 PM »

No. Only the people who were taking a single obscure poll with Gillespie up 1 as proof that "OMG THIS IS A PURE TOSSUP GILLESPIE GONNA WIN!1!" particularly when the polling average indicates a leans D, if not likely D, affair at about 5-6 points.

I'm not even exaggerating. If you read through the replies to the Monmouth poll, half of those #hottakes were a variant of that line^. It's kinda funny how the Democrats on these threads discount outlier polls that favor them (Fox's Alabama poll and the WaPo/Quinnipiac Virginia polls) while treating outliers that favor Republicans (like Virginia's Monmouth) as gospel. A consistent stand would be to simply throw them into the averages.

There's no way to know for sure whether a poll is an outlier or not until the election has actually been held. That AL-Fox poll could certainly be accurate, especially if most undecideds are GOP-leaning voters. I think the VA-Quinnipiac/WaPo polls are nonsense, but I wouldn't simply entirely dismiss the idea that they could be accurate or ignore them. You're acting as if the results the election are basically set in stone.

And no, I've always said that this race is Lean/Likely D, and it seems like people on this forum are greatly exaggerating the importance of "candidate quality" anyway - polarization, the partisan lean of a state/district as well as the political environment (also at the state level) are equally important factors. Like I said before, I find this idea that VA is still winnable for Rs incredibly ridiculous in general.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2017, 12:59:54 PM »

My final prediction:

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG


51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

Democrats have definitely won the expectations game this time.
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