Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Gass3268]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

I mean, Clinton carried 51 house seats, and 46 by more than 5 points. Iniially my prediction was more 45-55 but considering Trump has a 35% approval ratings in VA, I really expect VA republicans to suffer from many losses.

I really don't know. I hope you are right, but Democrats lost some of the seats Clinton won (even some she won by more than five) in the 20 point range in 2015. I might develop a guide to see where the Dems best chances of a pick up could be.

[President Johnson]

VA-Governor
Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 45%

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 57%
Guadagno: 39%

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 65%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA-Gov
✓ Northam or Periello 51.3%
Gillespie 45.9%

NJ-GOV
✓ Murphy 58.8%
Guadagno 37.4%

NYC-Mayor
✓DeBlasio ~75%

The Trump effect will have an adverse effect on Gillespie

[Mr.Phips]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

[Skill and Chance]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

The Trump-Russia scandals should hurt more in NOVA than just about anywhere else in the country.  VA Dems should be quite optimistic about what they could achieve. 

[Gass3268]

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

Two different Democrats have ~$30,000 more than Marshall.

[windjammer]

Kingsweden, Virginia and everyone else, I just looked at the incumbent not running for reelection:


1) Mark Dudenhefer (R) - District 2
Won by HRC  and Obama by 20 points.

2) Bill Howell (R) - District 28
Won by  Trump and Obama by less than 1 point.

3) Dave Albo (R) - District 42
Won by Obama by 6 points and by HRC by 23 points.
 
4) Peter Farrell (R) - District 56 Safe Rep

5) Rick Morris (R) - District 64 Safe Rep

6) Jimmie Massie (R) - District 72
Won by Romney by 9 points and by HRC by 5 points.

7) Daun Sessoms Hester (D) - District 89 Safe Dem


Just based on the incumbent retiring they will already pick up 4 seats.

[windjammer]

I looked at the VA house assembly presidential results
71   D   89,7   10,3   
69   D   87,4   12,6   
49   D   84,1   15,9   
89   D   82,2   17,8   
47   D   81,8   18,2   
46   D   81,6   18,4   
45   D   80,4   19,6   
70   D   80,2   19,8   
57   D   80,1   19,9   
92   D   79   21   
90   D   77,9   22,1   
48   D   76,5   23,5   
95   D   76,4   23,6   
53   D   76,2   23,8   
52   D   75,9   24,1   
74   D   75,4   24,6   
77   D   75,4   24,6   
80   D   74,6   25,4   
38   D   74,4   25,6   
36   D   73,7   26,3   
43   D   73,6   26,4   
44   D   73   27   
39   D   71   29   
35   D   70,9   29,1   
37   D   70   30   
63   D   69,1   30,9   
86   D   68,8   31,2   
41   D   67,4   32,6   
67   R   64,2   35,8   
11   D   64,1   35,9   
87   D   63,5   36,5   
79   D   62,5   37,5   
42   R   62,2   37,8   
34   D   61,4   38,6   
32   R   61,1   38,9   
2   R   60,7   39,3   
93   D   60,2   39,8   
75   D   58,1   41,9   
13   R   57,8   42,2   
50   R   57,4   42,6   40th
40   R   55,9   44,1   
68   R   55,9   44,1   
31   R   55,4   44,6   
51   R   54,7   45,3   
73   R   54,2   45,8   45th
10   R   53,3   46,7   
94   R   52,9   47,1   
72   R   52,8   47,2   
21   R   52,4   47,6   
12   R   51,6   48,4   50th
100   R   51,4   48,6   
85   R   49,7   50,3   
28   R   49,4   50,6   
27   R   48,8   51,2   
84   R   47,7   52,3   
62   R   47,3   52,7   
83   R   46,2   53,8   
76   R   45,9   54,1   
14   R   45,8   54,2   
26   R   45,8   54,2   
91   R   44,3   55,7   
54   R   44,2   55,8   
96   R   44   56   
60   R   43   57   
33   R   42,9   57,1   
88   R   42,8   57,2   
58   R   42,1   57,9   
82   R   41,7   58,3   
56   R   40,5   59,5   
61   R   40,3   59,7   
99   R   40,3   59,7   
78   R   40,1   59,9   
55   R   39,2   60,8   
20   R   39,1   60,9   
25   R   39,1   60,9   
81   R   39,1   60,9   
64   R   38,2   61,8   
66   R   38,2   61,8   
16   R   37,9   62,1   
30   R   37,1   62,9   
17   R   36,9   63,1   
18   R   36,9   63,1   
65   R   36,5   63,5   
59   R   35,9   64,1   
29   R   35,3   64,7   
8   R   34,9   65,1   
23   R   34,4   65,6   
98   R   34,2   65,8   
7   R   34   66   
22   R   33,3   66,7   
24   R   32,3   67,7   
97   R   29,3   70,7   
9   R   27,3   72,7   
19   R   26,7   73,3   
15   R   26   74   
5   R   21,9   78,1   
4   R   21,4   78,6   
6   R   21,4   78,6   
1   R   18   82   
3   R   16,7   83,3   


So Hillary won 51 seats,
She won 40 seats by more than 15 points
She won 45 seats by more than 8 points
She won 48 seats by more than 5 points

[mds32]

VA-Governor
Northam: 48%
Gillespie: 46%

VA-Lt. Governor
Vogel: 51%
Fairfax: 49%

VA-Attorney General
Herring: 57%
Adams: 43%

VA HoD: 56-44

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 53%
Guadagno: 42%
Genovese: 5%

NJ Senate: 24-16

NJ House: 50-30

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 61%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA-Gov
✓ Northam or Periello 51.3%
Gillespie 45.9%

NJ-GOV
✓ Murphy 58.8%
Guadagno 37.4%

NYC-Mayor
✓DeBlasio ~75%

The Trump effect will have an adverse effect on Gillespie

Look at the polls now, Gillespie trails by a lot now.

[Nyvin]

Perriello: 54%
Gillespie: 44%

Northam: 52%
Gillespie: 46%

Murphy:  59%
Guadagno: 39%

De Blasio: bigwinz %'s

[LabourJersey]

VA-Governor
Northam: 48%
Gillespie: 46%

VA-Lt. Governor
Vogel: 51%
Fairfax: 49%

VA-Attorney General
Herring: 57%
Adams: 43%

VA HoD: 56-44

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 53%
Guadagno: 42%
Genovese: 5%

NJ Senate: 24-16

NJ House: 50-30

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 61%

Genovese is not going to get 5% of the vote on Nov. 7. She's not Chris Daggett. Also I would be very surprised if Kim Guadagno got as high a percentage as 42%

[Badger]

VA-Governor
Northam: 48%
Gillespie: 46%

VA-Lt. Governor
Vogel: 51%
Fairfax: 49%

VA-Attorney General
Herring: 57%
Adams: 43%

VA HoD: 56-44

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 53%
Guadagno: 42%
Genovese: 5%

NJ Senate: 24-16

NJ House: 50-30

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 61%

Someone's irrationally enthusiastic.

[Kingpoleon]

VA-GOV:

51.8% Northam (D)
45.3% Gillespie (R)

Perriello:

49.9% Perriello (D)
49.0% Gillespie (R)


NJ-GOV

59% Murphy (D)
38% Guadagno (R)

New York mayoral election

63% DeBlasio (D)
31% Republican
6% Others

[PragmaticPopulist]

Pretty sure either Democrat would be slightly if not moderately favored over Gillespie. True, Gillespie has name recognition, but I've been in Northern VA recently, (VA-10 and VA-08) and Trump is utterly despised there. Unless Gillespie somehow distances himself from Trump while not turning off the Republican base, I don't see how he'd win. Also, I'm thinking Perriello would at least over-perform in SW and Southside VA, while Northam would over-perform in Tidewater. Something like a 52-48 D win. The house of delegates also stays in R control with a significantly lower majority.

Any Democrat (most likely Murphy in this case) would be favored in New Jersey, due to the national environment and NJ's strong D lean. We're talking a win in the high 50s. I kind of doubt Murphy will break 60% though. Ds also get a supermajority in both houses.

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty sure either Democrat would be slightly if not moderately favored over Gillespie. True, Gillespie has name recognition, but I've been in Northern VA recently, (VA-10 and VA-08) and Trump is utterly despised there. Unless Gillespie somehow distances himself from Trump while not turning off the Republican base, I don't see how he'd win. Also, I'm thinking Perriello would at least over-perform in SW and Southside VA, while Northam would over-perform in Tidewater. Something like a 52-48 D win. The house of delegates also stays in R control with a significantly lower majority.

Any Democrat (most likely Murphy in this case) would be favored in New Jersey, due to the national environment and NJ's strong D lean. We're talking a win in the high 50s. I kind of doubt Murphy will break 60% though. Ds also get a supermajority in both houses.

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.  He probably gets the standard 1-4% "saved by Fairfax" win like most Democrats in the last decade.  Perriello has much more upside because he could both turn out the base and connect with more rural voters than normal for VA Dems and more downside because he isn't very experienced at campaigning and could scare the Dem leaners in Fairfax and Loudoun if they think his policies will lead to CA/NY level taxes.  He could win 54/43, but he could also blow it. 

[MT Treasurer]

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

[Skill and Chance]

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling. 

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

IMO he's focusing way too much on social issues to do meaningfully better than Clinton in any of the rural areas.  Unless you think Fairfax would give Perriello a lower ceiling?

[MT Treasurer]

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

No, I'm with you. Perriello is way too Bernie-esque to get the absurd NoVA numbers that Northam could get. And Northam has more potential to overperform on the Eastern Shore/Virginia Beach with his geographical appeal and military background

My thoughts as well, plus I think his supposed strength in rural VA is dubious and quite exaggerated, to say the least. I could be wrong of course, but I'd be surprised if Perriello didn't make social issues a key focus of his campaign as well if he won the nomination.

[heatcharger]

Oh, I forgot to give my VA-LG and VA-AG predictions:

VA-LG

51.9% Fairfax (D) (assuming he wins the primary, which is not guaranteed)
47.5% Republican (I have no idea who's gonna win the R primary for this one, it's been pretty wild)
0.6% Other

VA-AG

52.4% Herring (D)
47.2% Adams (R) (he's actually a pretty good candidate, so don't expect a landslide here)
0.4% Other

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling. 

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

IMO he's focusing way too much on social issues to do meaningfully better than Clinton in any of the rural areas.  Unless you think Fairfax would give Perriello a lower ceiling?

I agree with you on this part, but both candidates have just been offering red meat to the primary base. The difference between the two is that I think Northam is more capable of pivoting to the middle since that's his equilibrium position, while Perriello won't be steered off his "bold progressive" course. That's why I think he's not gonna do as well in rural VA as his supporters think, especially outside his old district.

Also, Northam already revealed the path to a large Democratic victory in the state in 2013. Do I think he will do as well as last time in rural VA (not necessarily Appalachia)? Not really, but any Democrat winning Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach by 9 points the way Northam did is on track for a sizable win. His military background is worth something, as far as I'm aware.

Now Perriello does have an ace up his sleeve: Obama. From what I know, Perriello's staff is comprised of both Hillary and Bernie "people", but if they're smart, both wings will realize that keeping Bernie out is a must and getting Obama to campaign for him would be huge in NoVA and the predominantly black corridor of Eastern VA. Sanders isn't complete anathema Northern Virginia, but yes, Obama and his brand of liberalism are much more compatible across many demographics, and no, I don't think you can have both.

I don't have confidence that Perriello's campaign is disciplined enough to pull off that scheme though, so while I suppose Perriello has a marginally higher ceiling, Northam is more likely to hit his.

[Senator-elect Spark]

VA-GOV
50% Perriello (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

NJ-GOV
56% Murphy (D)
43% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
72% DeBlasio (D)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

VA-GOV
49% Northam (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV
50% Fairfax (D)
46% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN
52% Herring (D)
45% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy (D)
37% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
70% DeBlasio (D)

[Del Tachi]

VA-GOV
52% Northam
45% Gillespie

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy
39% Guadango

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA GOV
Tom Perriello 52-42%


NJ Gov
Patrick Murphy 59-39%

[Nyvin]

53% Northam
45% Gillespie

59% Murphy
39% Guadango