Nov. 2017 general election predictions?
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 28906 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #125 on: November 03, 2017, 03:58:20 PM »

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy




Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

Feel good about this, though its possible Adams will unseat the incumbent in the end.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #126 on: November 03, 2017, 04:22:04 PM »

While I'm less confident (though still sticking by) my Northam +1.5 prediction, I am confident that the HoD will see at least a swing of D+5 or so, and maybe more. There are just so many competitive R-held seats in Clinton districts that even if Gillespie wins, the Republicans likely will still lose a handful of seats. A net change of zero is almost impossible given the current map and conditions, and would be a stunningly good night for the Republicans.

I promise you right now if the VA GOP were offered D+4 they would take it in a heartbeat.
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Wells
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« Reply #127 on: November 03, 2017, 05:09:08 PM »

Northam 55% - Gillespie 42%
Fairfax 56% - Vogel 44%
Herring 57% - Adams 42%
HoD: Dems +12
Murphy 47% - Guadagno 48%
DeBlasio 51% - errbody else 49%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #128 on: November 03, 2017, 05:16:00 PM »

Northam 55% - Gillespie 42%
Fairfax 56% - Vogel 44%
Herring 57% - Adams 42%
HoD: Dems +12
Murphy 47% - Guadagno 48%
DeBlasio 51% - errbody else 49%

Can I have some of whatever you're drinking?
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JJC
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« Reply #129 on: November 03, 2017, 05:21:10 PM »

The REAL winner of the VA Governors race:


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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #130 on: November 03, 2017, 05:21:14 PM »

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

That's impossible. There are only two candidates for the lieutenant gubernatorial election. Thus, the percentages of Fairfax and Bird must add up to 100%.
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JJC
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« Reply #131 on: November 03, 2017, 05:22:28 PM »

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

That's impossible. There are only two candidates for the lieutenant gubernatorial election. Thus, the percentages of Fairfax and Bird must add up to 100%.

Write ins.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #132 on: November 03, 2017, 05:23:12 PM »

The REAL winner of the VA Governors race:




I don’t know where or how this meme started but I love it and never want it to end
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #133 on: November 03, 2017, 05:32:12 PM »

Northam 55% - Gillespie 42%
Fairfax 56% - Vogel 44%
Herring 57% - Adams 42%
HoD: Dems +12
Murphy 47% - Guadagno 48%
DeBlasio 51% - errbody else 49%

Can I have some of whatever you're drinking?

I just want to be the next Rick Grimes.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #134 on: November 03, 2017, 05:38:22 PM »

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

That's impossible. There are only two candidates for the lieutenant gubernatorial election. Thus, the percentages of Fairfax and Bird must add up to 100%.

Write ins.

But I doubt that 3% waste their vote for a write-in candidate.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #135 on: November 03, 2017, 05:56:40 PM »

VA-Gov

Ralph Northam (D):  49.4%
Ed Gillespie (R):  48.8%

NJ-Gov

Phil Murphy (D):  52%
Kim Guadagno (R):  40%


Keeping my predictions, but I think Gillespie has a better chance now than he did before.

Adding VA AG and LG

VA-LG
Jill Vogel (R):  49.97%
Justin Fairfax (D): 49.84%

VA-AG
Mark Herring (D):  51.9%
John Adams (R):  48.1%
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #136 on: November 04, 2017, 07:58:14 AM »

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.

I'm sticking with this. This is my final prediction.
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Adam the Gr8
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« Reply #137 on: November 04, 2017, 11:53:17 AM »

Going to be positive and predict an extremely narrow Gillespie win.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #138 on: November 04, 2017, 04:22:13 PM »

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.

I'm sticking with this. This is my final prediction.
I hope your right. I will be very pleased if thats the final result.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #139 on: November 04, 2017, 04:57:42 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2017, 05:19:21 PM by wxtransit »

Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0001%
Ralph Northam (D) - 47.9999%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

Republican gain

Lieutenant Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Jill Vogel (R) - 50.2%
Justin Fairfax (D) - 49.8%

Republican gain

New Jersey
Governor
Prediction: Lean to Likely Democratic

Phil Murphy (D) - 51.3%
Kim Guadagno (R) - 43.1%
Gina Genovese (I/RPT) - 2.2%
Seth Kaper-Dale (G) - 2.1%
Pete Rohrman (L) - 1.2%
Vincent Ross (I/WTP) - 0.1%

Democratic gain

Alabama
Senate (special)
Prediction: Lean to Likely Republican

Roy Moore (R) - 57%
Doug Jones (D) - 42%
Write-in: Ron Bishop (L) - 0.8%
Write in: Eulas Kirtdoll (I) - 0.1%
Write in: Mack McBride (I) - 0.1%

Republican hold

Utah
3rd congressional district (special)
Prediction: Likely Republican

John Curtis (R) - 49%
Kathie Allen (D) - 22.7%
Jim Bennett (UUP) - 22.6%
Joe Buchman (L) - 3.6%
Jason Christensen (IA) - 1.8%
Write-ins: 0.3%

Republican hold
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
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« Reply #140 on: November 04, 2017, 06:18:41 PM »

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #141 on: November 04, 2017, 07:05:58 PM »

VA-GOV
Ralph Northam +5 against Ed Gillespie

NJ-GOV
Phil Murphy +17 against Kim Guadagno

Might as well stay consistent. Keeping this still, final prediction.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #142 on: November 04, 2017, 08:03:08 PM »

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14

2012?  The national polls were like Obama +1 at best.  Granted, that does seem to be the only time in the past 40ish years that the left overperformed fundamentals in a meaningful way (they held both houses of congress in the 1978 Carter midterm, which was legit impressive).
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
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« Reply #143 on: November 04, 2017, 09:45:34 PM »

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14

2012?  The national polls were like Obama +1 at best.  Granted, that does seem to be the only time in the past 40ish years that the left overperformed fundamentals in a meaningful way (they held both houses of congress in the 1978 Carter midterm, which was legit impressive).

Thus why I said after 2016. The explosion of racial politics during and after the Trump campaign, along with the continued deficiencies of the Democratic party, has led me to conclude that we currently live in a naturally Republican age.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #144 on: November 04, 2017, 09:59:15 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2017, 10:01:09 PM by Mike Pence »

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14

2012?  The national polls were like Obama +1 at best.  Granted, that does seem to be the only time in the past 40ish years that the left overperformed fundamentals in a meaningful way (they held both houses of congress in the 1978 Carter midterm, which was legit impressive).

Thus why I said after 2016. The explosion of racial politics during and after the Trump campaign, along with the continued deficiencies of the Democratic party, has led me to conclude that we currently live in a naturally Republican age.

I doubt that Gillispie will win (thanks to increased democratic turnout), but if he does, I will become very dubious of democratic chances of getting a good result in 2018 and shift a lot of my race ratings to the right. Northam is a trash candidate, but this seems to be a cycle in Virginia that is structurally democratic, whether by 1 or 10 points. Shame he's throwing away the HoD until 2021 thanks to him being a trash candidate, though.

Even if we are in a naturally republican age, it only has one, maybe two bullets left in the chamber. It wouldn't last beyond 2020, in any case.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #145 on: November 05, 2017, 01:52:44 AM »

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

I figure it’s time to update all of these

Virginia

Ed Gillespie
48.72%

Ralph Northam 48.31%

Jill Vogel 49.70%

Justin Fairfax

49.56%

John Adams

48.25%

Mark Herring

51.15%

House of delegates

+4 democrat

New Jersey

Phil Murphy

56.96%

Kim Guadagno

39.40%

Washington state senate 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund

43.29%

Manka Dhingra

56.20%

Okay there you have it my final predictions.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #146 on: November 05, 2017, 01:59:51 AM »

I'll leave my prediction unchanged.

I have virtually not followed the races at all, but it seems Northam has made some minor campaign blunders, which means he's not winning by 10%, as he should.

VA (Governor)Sad

50.1% Ralph Northam (D)
47.0% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.5% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins


NJ (Governor)Sad

60.3% Phil Murphy (D)
38.0% Kim Guadagno (R)
  1.7% Others


NY (Mayor)Sad

64.4% Bill de Blasio (D)
35.6% Others


UT-03 (Special Election)Sad

67.6% John Curtis (R)
32.4% Others


---

I expect a general backlash against POTUS Trump, like it is the case in every off-year election at the start of a new President's term. Which means Democrats defend VA (I don't buy the close polls there) and will pick up NJ easily (Christie has been a trainwreck in the past years). De Blasio will easily win re-election in NYC as well. Republicans will easily win the UT-03 special election.

I'll post another prediction for the AL Senate special election in December.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #147 on: November 05, 2017, 08:59:07 AM »

VA-GOV:
Northam - 50.7%
Gillespie - 47.0%
Hyra - 2.3%

VA-LG:
Fairfax - 52.1% 51.6%
Vogel - 47.5% 48.0%

VA-AG:
Herring - 52.4%
Adams - 47.3%

VA-HoD:
Republicans - 58
Democrats - 42 (+8)

NJ-GOV:
Murphy - 57.0%
Guadagno - 41.5%

Going back to these original predictions with one tweak, which is slightly less ambitious but still confident of a slight Northam victory. Still the same map for the main event though:

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #148 on: November 05, 2017, 12:59:54 PM »

My final prediction:

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG


51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

Democrats have definitely won the expectations game this time.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2017, 01:01:22 PM »

VA Gov.

50% Ralph Northam (D)
47% Ed Gillespie (R)
3% Cliff Hyra (L)


VA Lt Gov.

51% Justin Fairfax (D)
49% Jill Vogel (R)


VA AG

54% Mark Herring (D)
46% John Adams (R)

NJ Gov.

57% Phil Murphy (D)
40% Kim Guadagno (R)
3% other


Bump final changes unless something significant changes in tomorrows polling aggregate.

 
Ralph Northam (D): 51.4%
Ed Gillespie (R): 47.3%
Cliff Hyra: 1.3%


LT Gov

51.4% Justin Fairfax (D)
48.6% Jill Vogel (R)

VA AG

53.5% Mark Herring (D)
46.5% John Adams (R)
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