Gun to your head- who wins MD governor race?

[Rjjr77]

gun to my head i'd take the popular incumbent in every race

Better be careful there with that strategy...

72% of the time incumbent governors win.

This race has shades of Rhode Island in 2006, with Hogan even more popular than Carcieri. I expect the same result.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Jealous by 1 point

[Bidenworth2020]

gun to my head i'd take the popular incumbent in every race

Better be careful there with that strategy...

72% of the time incumbent governors win.

This race has shades of Rhode Island in 2006, with Hogan even more popular than Carcieri. I expect the same result.

Rhode Island went to Hilldog by 16. MD did by 33.

[Mr. Smith]

Hogan pulls through by a point.

[MAINEiac4434]

I’ll say the Libertarian because I want whoever is holding the gun to pull the trigger.

[Suburbia]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

[History505]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

Remember, this is Maryland we are talking about.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

I’ll say the Libertarian because I want whoever is holding the gun to pull the trigger.

[Bidenworth2020]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

Remember, this is Maryland we are talking about.

no joke, people take it personally if you say you voted for Trump/are a republican.

[IceSpear]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

Remember, this is Maryland we are talking about.

no joke, people take it personally if you say you voted for Trump/are a republican.

When I was younger I used to go visit family in Cecil County. This was before I paid too much attention to politics, but I'd have been surprised if you told me then that it was one of the most Democratic states in the country.

[InheritTheWind]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

Remember, this is Maryland we are talking about.

no joke, people take it personally if you say you voted for Trump/are a republican.

[Bidenworth2020]

Gov. Larry Hogan will win reelection by 5-6 points. The Baltimore suburbs will put him over the top.

Remember, this is Maryland we are talking about.

no joke, people take it personally if you say you voted for Trump/are a republican.

When I was younger I used to go visit family in Cecil County. This was before I paid too much attention to politics, but I'd have been surprised if you told me then that it was one of the most Democratic states in the country.

well, yeah, but Hogan is gonna win Cecil about 75-25

[History505]

I can't wait to see more Democratic primary polling for this race.

[Xing]

If I had to guess, Hogan by about 2%, but he could definitely lose.

[Bidenworth2020]

If I had to guess, Hogan by about 2%, but he could definitely lose.

sorry, but just no. I don't mean to be offensive, but you really do not understand just how toxic Trump is here in MD. If a Democrat can successfully link Hogan to Trump in any, most likely via his Travel Ban support, he is done.

[Xing]

If I had to guess, Hogan by about 2%, but he could definitely lose.

sorry, but just no. I don't mean to be offensive, but you really do not understand just how toxic Trump is here in MD. If a Democrat can successfully link Hogan to Trump in any, most likely via his Travel Ban support, he is done.

That's the thing, though. I'm not sure that will happen. It could, and I could be wrong. We'll see.

[Cynthia]

Right now, since the D primary is crowded while the R primary is dominated by Hogan, I'd say Hogan

[History505]

Right now, since the D primary is crowded while the R primary is dominated by Hogan, I'd say Hogan

Care to elaborate a bit more.

[136or142]

Larry Hogan comfortably. 

[Mister Mets]

The popular incumbent would be the favorite. Incumbent Governors can survive midterms that suck for their party.

[Meatball Ron]

The popular incumbent would be the favorite. Incumbent Governors can survive midterms that suck for their party.

That's the thing -- will it be a CA/CT/HI/MN '06 / AR '10 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party survives in a midterm that sucks for their party) or a MD '06 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party goes down with the wave)? I think it could really go either way, but gun to my head, I'd have to lean toward MD '06 since being the same state makes the parallel stronger.

[Bojack Horseman]

D by roughly the same margin as O’Malley won in 2006 over Ehrlich.

[Cold War Liberal]

The popular incumbent would be the favorite. Incumbent Governors can survive midterms that suck for their party.

That's the thing -- will it be a CA/CT/HI/MN '06 / AR '10 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party survives in a midterm that sucks for their party) or a MD '06 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party goes down with the wave)? I think it could really go either way, but gun to my head, I'd have to lean toward MD '06 since being the same state makes the parallel stronger.

I could see '18 being a repeat of '06, especially if Baker's the nominee.

[Associate Justice PiT]

The popular incumbent would be the favorite. Incumbent Governors can survive midterms that suck for their party.

That's the thing -- will it be a CA/CT/HI/MN '06 / AR '10 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party survives in a midterm that sucks for their party) or a MD '06 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party goes down with the wave)? I think it could really go either way, but gun to my head, I'd have to lean toward MD '06 since being the same state makes the parallel stronger.

     I would note that with CA '06 Angelides was an extremely poor candidate. The race was a dead heat in the Summer, but Schwarzenegger just kept rising as the campaign progressed. Neither here nor there, but my mom could tell he was garbage well before most people did; same with Gray Davis and Quackenbush.

     Hogan's approval ratings are still quite strong, and I think he ekes it out in light of his decent poll numbers. I am thinking of one in particular from a couple of months ago saying that 43% of Marylanders believe he has done a good job distancing himself from Trump, 47% see him as a moderate, and 51% are leaning towards his re-election, but the strong left-wing leanings of Maryland give him little margin to work with.

[Cold War Liberal]

The popular incumbent would be the favorite. Incumbent Governors can survive midterms that suck for their party.

That's the thing -- will it be a CA/CT/HI/MN '06 / AR '10 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party survives in a midterm that sucks for their party) or a MD '06 (popular incumbent Governor in a state that doesn't favor their party goes down with the wave)? I think it could really go either way, but gun to my head, I'd have to lean toward MD '06 since being the same state makes the parallel stronger.

     I would note that with CA '06 Angelides was an extremely poor candidate. The race was a dead heat in the Summer, but Schwarzenegger just kept rising as the campaign progressed. Neither here nor there, but my mom could tell he was garbage well before most people did; same with Gray Davis and Quackenbush.

     Hogan's approval ratings are still quite strong, and I think he ekes it out in light of his decent poll numbers. I am thinking of one in particular from a couple of months ago saying that 43% of Marylanders believe he has done a good job distancing himself from Trump, 47% see him as a moderate, and 51% are leaning towards his re-election, but the strong left-wing leanings of Maryland give him little margin to work with.

I could also see this happening. Hogan v. Baker would be close (probably 1-3% margin regardless of who comes out on top) while Hogan v. Jealous would probably be either a 1-2% Jealous win or a 4-5% Hogan win (with the latter being more likely, but the former not impossible). Hard to say how Cummings would do against Hogan, as I don't think there's been any polling on that matchup. I'd expect Kamenetz to do slightly better than Jealous but slightly worse than Baker. No one else is polling above 3% of the Dem primary vote.