2016: William Weld as the Libertarian presidential nominee

[Suburbia]

Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld wins the 2016 Libertarian presidential nomination. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney endorses Weld, as other prominent Republicans such as former Govs. Christie Todd Whitman, Tom Ridge, George Pataki, and he gets a big endorsement from Ron and Rand Paul over Republican populist Donald Trump.

How does Clinton vs. Trump vs. Weld vs. Stein play out?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Siphons more votes from Trump than Johnson did, maybe wins Utah, Clinton wins.

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Siphons more votes from Trump than Johnson did, maybe wins Utah, Clinton wins.

I'd say that he helps McMullin win Utah, possibly narrow Trump's win in Alaska, less national attention thus fewer people vote for him, Clinton flips Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump still wins Wisconsin.

[Vosem]

Makes it into the debates, carries UT, takes a bunch of suburban voters who hated both candidates, from Trump in most of the country but probably from Hillary in New England where he is very fondly remembered. Could easily see AZ/FL/NC/WI/MI/PA/NE-2 switch to Hillary while NH goes in the other direction.

Gets about the same popular vote as Perot '92; high teens. Maybe breaks into the low twenties, but he's not concentrated very well anywhere except in the SLC metro and maybe some very wealthy parts of New England.

[West_Midlander]

Weld attracts some major Republican defectors. Romney, Sen. McCain, Sen. Murkowski, Sen. Susan Collins and perhaps others back him. Fiorina and Cruz offer no endorsement (but don't back Trump as in OTL). As he gains endorsements, Weld backs away from a Libertarian stance, campaigning as a right-center candidate and more importantly on his gubernatorial experience, and as a sensible "moderate" and fiscal presidential-hopeful. He reaches out of the party to fellow former Republican, (now Democrat) Lincoln Chafee as his running mate. Stein's campaign crumbles, and Bernie is less of a motivator to vote Clinton as Weld holds around 5% on Election Day.

Clinton wins the popular vote by 4.9%. Weld gets 8.6%, Stein 0.4%.
Chafee, Romney and Weld mostly focus on CA, MA and RI.
Weld has a surprisingly good showing in CA, leaving Clinton w/o a majority in the state. Republican support is nearly wiped out in MA/RI and suffers greatly in the Northeast as a whole. This throws ME-02 into the Clinton camp, & shores up a majority for Clinton in NH and ME-at large. Weld, 11% behind in MA on Election Day comes within 5%. A narrow victory is secured for Weld in RI.

Trump has 289 EVs, Clinton has 245 and Weld has 4. The elector from ME-02, 1 from California and 4 from MA choose Weld over Clinton (leaving Weld with 10 and Clinton with 235).

[defe07]

Weld attracts some major Republican defectors. Romney, Sen. McCain, Sen. Murkowski, Sen. Susan Collins and perhaps others back him. Fiorina and Cruz offer no endorsement (but don't back Trump as in OTL). As he gains endorsements, Weld backs away from a Libertarian stance, campaigning as a right-center candidate and more importantly on his gubernatorial experience, and as a sensible "moderate" and fiscal presidential-hopeful. He reaches out of the party to fellow former Republican, (now Democrat) Lincoln Chafee as his running mate. Stein's campaign crumbles, and Bernie is less of a motivator to vote Clinton as Weld holds around 5% on Election Day.

Clinton wins the popular vote by 4.9%. Weld gets 8.6%, Stein 0.4%.
Chafee, Romney and Weld mostly focus on CA, MA and RI.
Weld has a surprisingly good showing in CA, leaving Clinton w/o a majority in the state. Republican support is nearly wiped out in MA/RI and suffers greatly in the Northeast as a whole. This throws ME-02 into the Clinton camp, & shores up a majority for Clinton in NH and ME-at large. Weld, 11% behind in MA on Election Day comes within 5%. A narrow victory is secured for Weld in RI.

Trump has 289 EVs, Clinton has 245 and Weld has 4. The elector from ME-02, 1 from California and 4 from MA choose Weld over Clinton (leaving Weld with 10 and Clinton with 235).

Do you think its possible to do a breakdown at least in the states where weld did the best in/ won?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Makes it into the debates, carries UT, takes a bunch of suburban voters who hated both candidates, from Trump in most of the country but probably from Hillary in New England where he is very fondly remembered. Could easily see AZ/FL/NC/WI/MI/PA/NE-2 switch to Hillary while NH goes in the other direction.

Gets about the same popular vote as Perot '92; high teens. Maybe breaks into the low twenties, but he's not concentrated very well anywhere except in the SLC metro and maybe some very wealthy parts of New England.

Weld would get 10% tops, not 19 or 20%

[Metalhead123]

I don't think Weld would have done as well as Johnson.

[MAINEiac4434]

Weld breaks 5%.

[darklordoftech]

[bagelman]