WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin arguably has one of the weirdest maps of the night. It got the job done, but I was like wth is that?!

[lfromnj]

Manchin only won Mcdowell county by 0.2
Ice spear may have been wrong earlier in the year and relative to the night in the senate democrats underperformed overall so Manchin did pretty good but this just shows how far gone WV in the coal fields.  I think Ojeda may actually have won against Mooney.

remember even barack obama won mcodwell by 9 percent in 2008 while losing the state by 15. Meanwhile Manchin wins by 3 and barely wins it by 0.2

[Calthrina950]

Manchin arguably has one of the weirdest maps of the night. It got the job done, but I was like wth is that?!

You are right. If I am correct, Morrisey won the majority of counties in West Virginia. Moreover, the facts that Manchin failed to get an absolute majority, and that the race ended up closer than most of the polls were predicting, clearly indicate that West Virginia is gone for Democrats in 2024. It's also clear that Manchin saved himself by voting for Kavanaugh; if he had voted no, Morrisey would have won narrowly. And if Jenkins had been the Republican nominee, Manchin would most surely have lost. Yet he survived, which is something Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill cannot say, and which Tester, depending upon how the rest of the vote count goes, may not be able to say.

[IceSpear]

Early swing map, lol.



My main question is why Manchin did relatively poorly in Monongalia County in 2012.

[Storr]

Early swing map, lol.



My main question is why Manchin did relatively poorly in Monongalia County in 2012.

That trend was probably from students coming out for him at WVU. Also, I don't care how old he is, we must convince Manchin to never retire.

[IceSpear]

Early swing map, lol.



My main question is why Manchin did relatively poorly in Monongalia County in 2012.

That trend was probably from students coming out for him at WVU. Also, I don't care how old he is, we must convince Manchin to never retire.

Judging from this result during a good year for Democrats even against a horrific candidate like Fat Pat...I'm pretty sure he'd be screwed in 2024 even if he ran for re election. Especially since Republicans wouldn't be discouraged by bad polling the second time around and would go full throttle against him. Manchin should just vote like a flaming liberal for the next 6 years then retire, lol.

[Skye]

A recipe for an upset was brewing. But the lack of quality polling, well...

I said this week that Manchin should have been worried, and now it seems that way. Jenkins probably would have defeated him.

[IceSpear]

A recipe for an upset was brewing. But the lack of quality polling, well...

I said this week that Manchin should have been worried, and now it seems that way. Jenkins probably would have defeated him.

Considering Fat Pat got within 3 points, I'd say it's a virtual certainty that Jenkins would've beaten him. Maybe badly.

[Skye]

The signs were there, though. Manchin rarely polled above 50%, which should have sounded more alarms given that this is WV.

[Storr]

A recipe for an upset was brewing. But the lack of quality polling, well...

I said this week that Manchin should have been worried, and now it seems that way. Jenkins probably would have defeated him.

Considering Fat Pat got within 3 points, I'd say it's a virtual certainty that Jenkins would've beaten him. Maybe badly.

Thankfully the WV GOP was dumb enough to nominate Pat in the primary.

[IceSpear]

The signs were there, though. Manchin rarely polled above 50%, which should have sounded more alarms given that this is WV.

They sounded alarms for me, you, and Bagel...but that was trolling apparently.

[Vega]

This is definitely Manchin's last term and the Democratic Party's last time winning statewide in WV.

[DabbingSanta]

This is definitely Manchin's last term and the Democratic Party's last time winning statewide in WV.

Manchin is a relic of the past. Many were overconfident on atlas (myself included) of his chances. My best guess is his Kavanaugh vote saved him.

[wesmoorenerd]

This is definitely Manchin's last term and the Democratic Party's last time winning statewide in WV.

Until climate refugees from VA lead to a massive leftward shift, that is 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because his base is registered Democrats?

[Calthrina950]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because Morrisey still got 46%, denied Manchin from receiving an absolute majority, and came within 3 points of victory. Manchin only barely survived, and would clearly have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh.

[Vega]

If we're being honest, Don Blankenship might have been able to win this by boosting turnout.

[Calthrina950]

If we're being honest, Don Blankenship might have been able to win this by boosting turnout.

I actually don't think so. I believe Blankenship would have lost by about the same margin as Morrisey. But yes, this definitely proves that West Virginia is virtually gone for Democrats.

[Storr]

If we're being honest, Don Blankenship might have been able to win this by boosting turnout.

I actually don't think so. I believe Blankenship would have lost by about the same margin as Morrisey. But yes, this definitely proves that West Virginia is virtually gone for Democrats.

I know he switched parties to Republican (evidently he was a Republican before he decided to run for Governor), but Jim Justice won the Governor's race in 2016 as a Democrat even with Trump on the ballot.

I'm not sure if this means Democrats are done in West Virginia. But, it definitely means they will only win in close races like Justice in 2016 and Manchin now, where they were both held under 50%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lmao true I guess

"Mr. President, here’s the thing: What we find out is people like you and like me in my state. They know me. In a state that you’re extremely popular in ... you won’t have success" campaigning against me, Manchin said, recounting his recent telephone call with Trump. "Because I am going to win, [and] it’s not going to look good on you."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/manchin-trump-west-virginia-midterms-626437

[Mr. Smith]

The signs were there, though. Manchin rarely polled above 50%, which should have sounded more alarms given that this is WV.

They sounded alarms for me, you, and Bagel...but that was trolling apparently.

Given how the other states were, and given how Manchin was normally at around 7-9 while the others were +1 or 2 and Tester was the only comparable...and given what ended up happening...

[President Johnson]

This is definitely Manchin's last term and the Democratic Party's last time winning statewide in WV.

Manchin is a relic of the past. Many were overconfident on atlas (myself included) of his chances. My best guess is his Kavanaugh vote saved him.

I agree with DabbingSanta. I thought Manchin would at least get the same vote share as he did in 2010, when he received 53%. However, I would have trade him for McCaskill.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because Morrisey still got 46%, denied Manchin from receiving an absolute majority, and came within 3 points of victory. Manchin only barely survived, and would clearly have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh.

So why assume that the guy who lost to this utter clown would have polled any better than said utter clown? Because he was a member of the House of Representatives? Not how things work. He was always a bad and overrated candidate.

[lfromnj]

If Jenkins couldn't win what ought to have been an easy victory in the primary, why on earth would anyone assume that he'd have been a stronger candidate in the general than the clown actually nominated?

Because Morrisey still got 46%, denied Manchin from receiving an absolute majority, and came within 3 points of victory. Manchin only barely survived, and would clearly have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh.

I hate this meme lol
Why assume Chuck lugar wouldn't have just to Joe Donnely in 2012
Why assume that Mike Castle would have beaten Chris Coons in 2010
Why assume that Luther Strange would have beaten Doug jones?


Evan Jenkins was a weak primary candidate because most of his voters came from the South.

So why assume that the guy who lost to this utter clown would have polled any better than said utter clown? Because he was a member of the House of Representatives? Not how things work. He was always a bad and overrated candidate.