Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 01:33:18 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Delaware and Oregon voted closer to the national average than Ohio or Iowa  (Read 2435 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,454
United States


« on: May 08, 2017, 10:22:25 PM »

Delaware and Oregon don't have a recent history of being swing states, whereas Ohio and Iowa do. I would argue that it's possible that Delaware and/or Oregon vote Republican in 2020, but very, very unlikely.

I could see Kasich potentially doing quite well in Oregon, but not winning the State, against a Democratic candidate.

Reason being, is in or for a Republican to win statewide, they not only need to max out their votes in rural areas (Check Trump '16), perform exceptionally well in Mill towns (Still potential gains there vs '16 I supposed hypothetically), but most importantly be competitive in the Portland suburbs of Washington County, upper income areas of West Portland, Inner Portland wealthier suburbs like Lake Oswego, etc. and win by quite solid margins in Upper Middle-Class precincts in Salem, Eugene, Corvalis...

The only way I see that scenario happening is someone like Kasich, would be able to harness the traditional latent "Moderate Republican gene" that exists in much of Oregon, but it's still a major strain on my brain trying to figure out even in that scenario how a Republican could modify the margins enough in just the right places to take the ball over the finish line.

I'll let others speak to Delaware, since I haven't been there in 15 years, but yes your point about Iowa and Ohio having a immediately recent history of swing states was the correct answer.... Smiley
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 13 queries.