OH-Gravis: Mandel leads Brown by 3, Tiberi trails by 2
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  OH-Gravis: Mandel leads Brown by 3, Tiberi trails by 2
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Author Topic: OH-Gravis: Mandel leads Brown by 3, Tiberi trails by 2  (Read 4209 times)
heatcharger
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« on: May 03, 2017, 06:46:37 PM »

Link.

45% Mandel (R)
42% Brown (D)

43% Brown (D)
41% Tiberi (R)
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2017, 06:50:08 PM »

Polls this early don't mean a whole lot (see: Portman vs. Strickland), but still, not good!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2017, 07:36:17 PM »

R+1.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2017, 07:42:19 PM »

Gravis is full of it. They had Mandel leading in 2012 and we know how that turned out.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2017, 08:38:39 PM »

Tossup, but not because of/regardless of this poll.

Pretty much my view.

Obviously I think rematches tend to falter though.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2017, 08:41:43 PM »

Interesting numbers. Mandel may or may not be actually leading, but it's clear that Brown can't take his victory for granted​.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2017, 08:57:54 PM »

Trump +6?  Junk poll.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2017, 09:14:59 PM »

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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2017, 09:19:43 PM »


Gravis may very well be a garbage pollster, but that part's not why. I could believe that JA in Ohio.
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2017, 09:24:52 PM »

I had a feeling this was going to be tough. Hillary Clinton has eviscerated the Democratic brand in Ohio. Over 400,000 Democratic voters disappeared last year, the beginnings of a West Virginia-style collapse. Otherwise, I'd say Brown would be a good potential presidential contender, but he's gotta fight tooth and nail just to stay alive.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2017, 09:32:58 PM »

I had a feeling this was going to be tough. Hillary Clinton has eviscerated the Democratic brand in Ohio. Over 400,000 Democratic voters disappeared last year, the beginnings of a West Virginia-style collapse. Otherwise, I'd say Brown would be a good potential presidential contender, but he's gotta fight tooth and nail just to stay alive.

Who's still going to be thinking about Hillary Clinton in 2018?
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2017, 09:35:57 PM »

I had a feeling this was going to be tough. Hillary Clinton has eviscerated the Democratic brand in Ohio. Over 400,000 Democratic voters disappeared last year, the beginnings of a West Virginia-style collapse. Otherwise, I'd say Brown would be a good potential presidential contender, but he's gotta fight tooth and nail just to stay alive.

Who's still going to be thinking about Hillary Clinton in 2018?

It depends on how active she is. But more importantly, what else is there for the average voter to think about as far as Democratic standard bearers? Hillary was the last "taste" of the Democratic party these voters had, and that'll be true until there's a new nominee.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2017, 09:50:50 PM »

I had a feeling this was going to be tough. Hillary Clinton has eviscerated the Democratic brand in Ohio. Over 400,000 Democratic voters disappeared last year, the beginnings of a West Virginia-style collapse. Otherwise, I'd say Brown would be a good potential presidential contender, but he's gotta fight tooth and nail just to stay alive.

Who's still going to be thinking about Hillary Clinton in 2018?

It depends on how active she is. But more importantly, what else is there for the average voter to think about as far as Democratic standard bearers? Hillary was the last "taste" of the Democratic party these voters had, and that'll be true until there's a new nominee.
She might campaign in places like New Jersey for Murphy or Virginia for Kaine, but I think she'll stay far, far away from Ohio.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2017, 10:14:12 PM »

Gravis is all over the place. If nothing else, I certainly don't buy Mandel doing better than Tiberi.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2017, 10:15:38 PM »


FWIW, Firehouse Strategies has Trump above water in Ohio with a midterm electorate; that number may not be far off.

Gravis is all over the place. If nothing else, I certainly don't buy Mandel doing better than Tiberi.

In theory, it makes sense. Mandel is a statewide office holder. Tiberi may not be that widely known outside his Congressional district.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2017, 11:15:25 PM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2017, 11:55:26 PM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.

Yeah... Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points. Is Wisconsin a blue state? No.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2017, 12:18:16 AM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.

Yeah... Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points. Is Wisconsin a blue state? No.

But, in fairness, that was only seven points relative to the nation.  For perspective, Delaware voted closer to the national average this time than Ohio did.  Is Delaware a swing state too?
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2017, 01:05:24 AM »

Sherrod can't take anything for granted, but this is junk.

If polls this far out were accurate, Ted Strickland would have beaten Portman by 9.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2017, 01:10:36 AM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.

Yeah... Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points. Is Wisconsin a blue state? No.

But, in fairness, that was only seven points relative to the nation.  For perspective, Delaware voted closer to the national average this time than Ohio did.  Is Delaware a swing state too?

That's exactly my point. Ohio is a lot more elastic than a blue or red state would be, like Delaware for instance.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2017, 08:27:29 AM »

ROTFL  Every time you think Gravis has run out of ways to embarrass themselves, you get something like this poll.  On a related note, this poll over-samples folks who are 50-64 by roughly 20%, over-samples evangelicals by about 7% relative to the state's actual demographics (not to unskew or anything, but it seems worth mentioning).

Yeah, Gravis is an awful pollster, but I wouldn't call them Republican-leaning or anything like that - just look at their Nelson +25 polls, lol. I'd say that this is the third most likely Democratic-held seat to flip (after MO and IN), but again... not because of this poll.

I also just took a look at the RCP average in 2012... and no, there wasn't even one poll that showed Mandel leading Brown, and certainly not a Gravis one. There was one that showed a tie, though.

Brown can't take anything for granted, but that being said, he should be fine.  And I really don't see how one can possibly argue that he's more vulnerable than Heitkamp and Manchin.  This is a solidly lean-D race, especially with Mandel as the likely nominee.  Btw, it should be pretty telling that Husted, DeWine, Taylor, Renacci, Stivers, and Yost (to say nothing of some of the higher profile Republicans in the state legislature) all showed almost no serious interest in running against Brown (just like no one except Mandel showed any interest in 2012, not even Kasich).  It remains to be seen whether Tiberi will run and if he somehow made it past the primary (hard to see happening, but certainly not impossible), he'd be a much stronger candidate than Mandel (although Brown would probably still win), but the fact is that Brown is pretty strongly favored to win re-election (in addition to being about as close to entrenched as a liberal Senator can get in Ohio's current political environment) and almost everyone in Ohio politics knows it.  Tbh, if Mandel thought there was any room for him in the gubernatorial primary, I don't think he'd have run for Senate either.  I mean, Brown can't take anything for granted, but he's starting the race with a clear advantage.
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Skye
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2017, 10:51:33 AM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.

Yeah... Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points. Is Wisconsin a blue state? No.
Before this election many were calling Wisconsin a blue state.
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RI
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2017, 10:59:20 AM »

All evidence points to the trends of 2016 at least partially carrying over. This seat is at least a toss up at this point.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2017, 11:03:15 AM »

Gravis is all over the place. If nothing else, I certainly don't buy Mandel doing better than Tiberi.

no one knows who Tiberi is, and a lot who do know him as never trump/john kasich's guy. Mandel definitely is better known so it isn't surprising he'd outperform Tiberi.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2017, 11:22:33 AM »

Ohio did vote 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016.  If Mandel wins this in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment, maybe it is just time to officially label Ohio a red state.

Yeah... Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points. Is Wisconsin a blue state? No.
Before this election many were calling Wisconsin a blue state.

Just look at local politics. There's no way a blue state would have near super-majorities in the legislature and an R governor.
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