French Legislative Election 2017

[Andrea]

Melenchon 33.21
Versini 22.27

[SunSt0rm]

Melenchon 33.21
Versini 22.27

Is that enough for Melenchon? Its not very convincing

[jaichind]

Why is the PS all of a sudden at 13%?

LREM 32 %
LR 21.2 %
Fi 14.2 %
FN 13.9 %
PS 13.3 %
Autres 5.4 %

https://twitter.com/HippoRds/status/873998749571444736

Perhaps they are adding EELV-ECO into PS+ ?

[Beezer]

Why is the PS all of a sudden at 13%?

LREM 32 %
LR 21.2 %
Fi 14.2 %
FN 13.9 %
PS 13.3 %
Autres 5.4 %

https://twitter.com/HippoRds/status/873998749571444736

What is so shocking about PS result?

Most other exit polls had it at 9-10%. Just surprised by the sudden rise when the predictions for other parties were pretty much spot on.

[jaichind]

With 90% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.92%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.71%
FN                          13.81%
FI                           10.80%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.55%
EELV                        4.07%
PCF                          2.74%
DLF                          1.18%

LREM continue to rise, LR and FN continue to fall.  PS most stable.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why is the PS all of a sudden at 13%?

LREM 32 %
LR 21.2 %
Fi 14.2 %
FN 13.9 %
PS 13.3 %
Autres 5.4 %

https://twitter.com/HippoRds/status/873998749571444736

What is so shocking about PS result?

Most other exit polls had it at 9-10%. Just surprised by the sudden rise when the predictions for other parties were pretty much spot on.

I've just noticed that this was just prediction, not results. Maybe this would be thanks to some electoral districts where LREM do not have candidates. But still they will probably have less.

[jaichind]

FN most likely to finish below its 2012 result of 13.6%

[jaichind]

Wow, so far only 3 winners on the first round.  That must be a record low since 1958.

[jaichind]

With 94% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         32.04%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.69%
FN                          13.67%
FI                           10.88%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.48%
EELV                        4.12%
PCF                          2.70%
DLF                          1.20%

LREM rising slowing, LR mostly stable, and FN still falling.

[jaichind]

FN now at 13.59%, officially below its 2012 vote share.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Valls gets 25, he'll be facing an FI opponent.

[jaichind]

Turnout seems like to be around 48.5% based on the places that reported which is around 96% of the vote.  Unless Paris has turnout much higher than this this will most likely be the turnout.

[jaichind]

With 98% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         32.32%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.59%
FN                          13.37%
FI                           10.96%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.45%
EELV                        4.22%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.18%

LREM FI going up with FN going down as urban areas comes in.

[jaichind]

It seems like everything is counted.  Turnout 48.71%

LREM-Modem         32.32%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.57%
FN                          13.20%
FI                           11.02%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.51%
EELV                        4.30%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.17%

[Tintrlvr]

Poking around France24's map, I have an inkling that MoDem candidates did significantly and noticeably worse than LREM candidates in their constituencies. I'm curious if this was caused mainly by center-left voters liking MoDem less than LREM due to its clearly center-right origins and sometimes choosing parties of the left where LREM wasn't on the ballot, by low-information voters who wanted to vote for Macron's candidates not connecting MoDem and LREM, looking for an LREM candidate and then scattering when they couldn't find one, or if MoDem generally was assigned tougher seats on the whole. Each explanation seems plausible.

[Mike88]

Most voted party by district: (Paris still out)

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is disgusting.

I've said it before but it's truer than ever: England should have won the 100 years war.

[jaichind]

Poking around France24's map, I have an inkling that MoDem candidates did significantly and noticeably worse than LREM candidates in their constituencies. I'm curious if this was caused mainly by center-left voters liking MoDem less than LREM due to its clearly center-right origins and sometimes choosing parties of the left where LREM wasn't on the ballot, by low-information voters who wanted to vote for Macron's candidates not connecting MoDem and LREM, looking for an LREM candidate and then scattering when they couldn't find one, or if MoDem generally was assigned tougher seats on the whole. Each explanation seems plausible.

I noticed the same.  I figured it has to do with MoDem being the junior party will get the tougher seats relative to LREM.  I am sure a bit of it is the LREM brand is better than MoDem.

[jaichind]

Did anyone find an example of a district where 3 candidates made it to the second round?  I could not find one.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Did anyone find an example of a district where 3 candidates made it to the second round?  I could not find one.

Nope, turnout probably too low for that.

[SunSt0rm]

Did anyone find an example of a district where 3 candidates made it to the second round?  I could not find one.

There is only 1

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/aube-10/circonscription-01/

[jaichind]

Does anyone has a list of how many second round districts are

LREM-MoDem vs LR-UDI-Misc Right
LREM-MoDem vs FI
LREM-MoDem vs FN
LREM-MoDem vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FI
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FN
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FN vs FI
FN vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FI vs PS-PRG-Misc Left

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So there are apparently 4, not 3 candidates who won in first turn. Anyone knows who is the fourth one (the second one from LREM)?

[adma]

Le Pen won 45 constituencies yesterday,

Is there a map available?

Here: http://www.laprovence.com/article/presidentielle-2017/4439716/presidentielle-les-resultats-du-second-tour-par-circonscription.html

Edit: here is a better one, but only for constituencies won by Le Pen.

The La Provence map/results site seems to have gone subscription-only.  Is there someplace else where second-round presidential figures + maps ***by constituency*** are available--***where I do not need to subscribe?!?***

*Please* help.

Here

Half good.  Gives shares; not figures.  (Is there a Ministère de l'Intérieur link to figures?  I knew there was one for the first round via Excel, but I forgot it.  Is there one for the second round?)

Going back to the original French Presidential Election thread, it would seem that I *might* have gotten my first-round-by-constituency Excel data, figures and percentages and all, via data.gouv.fr--I tried that now, but it went 502 Bad Gateway on me.  (What happened?  I'm all for open data)

Best I can hope for, maybe, is if any of the present Legislative election results sites include presidential numbers (*not* just shares) by constituency for comparison's sake.  (So, this is still not an off-topic inquiry.)

[jaichind]

So there are apparently 4, not 3 candidates who won in first turn. Anyone knows who is the fourth one (the second one from LREM)?

I think Paris 1st