MO - Remington: Hawley 37%, Wagner 16% in GOP Primary

[Pollster]

There's a lot I'm barred from disclosing, so what I will say is that the client who hired us had us test numerous candidates against Wagner and she never led a single one. We also tested various lines of attack and found quite a few that had dramatic impacts on her numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

Whatever. Another person on this forum has told me via PMs that Wagner consistently does better than any other GOPer in their Democratic internal polling.

Not surprised that Democrats want Hawley to be the nominee, though.

[jamestroll]

Having done extensive work for numerous Missouri-based clients the last cycle, I can corroborate some but not all of these numbers. I haven't been involved but have no doubt in my mind that the strong pushes being made for Hawley to run have been in response to internal polling. Wagner is much weaker statewide than many initially expected and I have been hearing that her advisors are pushing hard for her to stay in her seat, which some believe could be put in play itself if the cycle favors Dems. If I were advising the DCCC I would be actively pushing to recruit Jason Kander for Wagner's seat, which he performed incredibly strongly in during his statewide run if I recall correctly.

Why on earth would we use Jason Kander for MO-02? He clearly is not interested and within the boundaries of MO-02 there are elected Democrats who could make a good play for that seat.

It is a GOP leaning seat but not overwhelmingly Republican especially locally.

[Heisenberg]

Why is Hawley considered weak?

He was just elected to his current post, so announcing a run for higher office only months after winning his current office just looks so nakedly ambitious. Also, he's pretty extreme and polarizing, and would have less crossover appeal than Wagner, who's super popular in her suburban STL district.

Is he that extreme or polarizing? It might just be that my congressional district (Missouri's 2nd) got different advertising than the rest of the state, but nearly every ad I remember seeing from Hawley were overwhelmingly positive. The most 'scathing' attack against his opponent that I can remember was "she's a career politician"

Position wise, I personally can't think of any position where he's different than Wagner (who is more conservative than people presume, and also is less popular in her home district than people presume.   There was not much love for her at the Cruz rally in Missouri's second in March 2016 - she was heckled by a number of people in the audience). I'm willing to admit that I might not have been the most educated voter, but when I voted for both Wagner and Hawley in November, I didn't think there was anything that set them apart from the standard GOP orthodoxy.

Wagner would probably do better among College Educated Whites in the suburbs yes (more a function of her reputation as establishment than any actual position differences that I'm aware of), but Hawley would likely do better in rural Missouri.

I do agree that running for office this soon is a weakness, but I don't think it is as devastating as people here are implying. It doesn't look good, but this attack won't have as much weight coming from McCaskill, as she also sought higher office while she was only halfway through an elected statewide term.

I personally think Wagner's flipflopping vis-a-vis her stance on Trump is probably more damaging. Also, the establishment from either party is unpopular right now in Missouri, and Hawley's status as an 'outsider' (I don't think of him as such now that he has elected office, but people considered Kander an outsider just the same) is a real strength.

Well, people tend to overestimate the strength of rural voters. For every rural Republican, there are two or even three more in the inner city or suburbs/exburbs. Hawley would easily be viewed as a "Bible-thumper" which wouldn't play so well in the inner cities, where way more voters live. Him being polarizing has to do with his extensive work on the Hobby Lobby case, which a lot of the suburbanites probably won't like.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I didn't even know who Hawley was until I looked at this thread.

Wagner's vote for TrumpCare could harm her, if the bill proves to be as toxic as it is likely going to be.

[Cynthia]

Endorsements don't really matter--just look at Walt Mimmick. Popular with D base and endorsed by Tea Party Express didn't prevent him from being defeated.

[peterthlee]

Wagner is probably slated to be the next John Kasich/Alain Juppe, who has high polling but was defeated in primaries.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

lmao, is McCaskill entrenched?

Lol, McCaskill will never be entrenched. As long as she is the Democratic incumbent, this seat will always be the most likely "red" state to flip.

Also, I'm not sure it's the Republicans who are "overconfident" about this race, considering that some people here are equating Hawley with Akin and believe McCaskill is favored to win reelection.

Another Democrat fell 3 points short of knocking out an incumbent republican while trump won Missouri by almost 20. McCaskill beat Akin by 15 in 2012 while Donnelly put away a similar opponent by only 5. And this was a year that was not as good for democrats as 2018 almost certainly will be. Donnelly is the only democrat that is in serious trouble right now in a trump midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

Donnelly is the only democrat that is in serious trouble right now in a trump midterm.

Yeah, sure. Keep telling yourself that.

Also...

Jason Kander /=/ Claire McCaskill
2018 GOP nominee /=/ Roy Blunt/Todd Akin

EDIT: Didn't you also predict a D+10 Senate gain in 2016?

[_]

Donnelly is the only democrat that is in serious trouble right now in a trump midterm.

Yeah, sure. Keep telling yourself that.

Also...

Jason Kander /=/ Claire McCaskill
2018 GOP nominee /=/ Roy Blunt/Todd Akin

EDIT: Didn't you also predict a D+10 Senate gain in 2016?

She predicted D+6 in 2016, said they'd also get WI, IN, MO, and PA besides IL and NH. 

Note: Apologies to Una.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Donnelly is the only democrat that is in serious trouble right now in a trump midterm.

Yeah, sure. Keep telling yourself that.

Also...

Jason Kander /=/ Claire McCaskill
2018 GOP nominee /=/ Roy Blunt/Todd Akin

EDIT: Didn't you also predict a D+10 Senate gain in 2016?

He predicted D+6 in 2016, said they'd also get WI, IN, MO, and PA besides IL and NH. 

It's she, you dick.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Wagner is probably slated to be the next John Kasich/Alain Juppe, who has high polling but was defeated in primaries.

When does the high polling begin?