The Kemp Revolution

[George W. Hobbes]

The Kemp Revolution – 1980

In the Iowa caucuses, George Bush’s upset rocks the frontrunner campaign of Ronald Reagan.  The media declares Reagan “politically dead”, and when Reagan challenges Bush to a one-on-one debate, Bush not only accepts; but he heartily cleans Reagan’s clock.  New Hampshire narrowly goes Bush’s way, and he manages to go forward as the media-crowned presumptive nominee and trounces Reagan in the next round of primaries.

President Jimmy Carter’s advisors are more perturbed.  They had considered Reagan, a hawkish conservative who had once called for making Social Security “voluntary” and, after all, a former movie actor, to be the weakest of the Republican field.  Regardless, Carter still manages to defeat the insurgent liberal campaign of Senator Ted Kennedy.  Carter’s victory is somewhat bittersweet…polling suggests that Carter will decisively lose the election.

Carter is bolstered somewhat by Congressman John Anderson’s decision not to seek the presidency as an independent, but when Anderson endorses Bush, it locks up the liberal wing of the GOP for Bush.

To reach out to the right, Bush selects (with Reagan’s approval), Congressman Jack Kemp of New York as his running mate.  The Bush-Kemp team, rolled out under the slogan of “Leadership We Won’t Have To Train”, enjoys a spectacular convention. 

The Democrats reunite, sort of, at a stormy New York City gathering, with Kennedy attempting to release delegates from their pledged support to any candidate and Carter delivering an especially sour acceptance speech.  Many considered the convention to be the last real shot Carter had to win the election, and he failed miserably. 

After the President refused to appear at a debate suggested by the League of Women Voters, Bush campaign manager Jim Baker aired spots that claimed “If Jimmy Carter doesn’t have the courage to stand toe-to-toe with George Bush, why should we think he has the courage to stand up to the Soviets?”  The ad, called “Courage”, resolved a major issue for Bush, the so-called “wimp factor”, and other spots praised Bush’s handling of “tough decisions” as director of the CIA.

On election day, Bush handily defeated Carter, with 56% to 44% in the popular vote and 471 to 67 in the Electoral College.

[George W. Hobbes]

The Twenty Year Curse

President Bush had only been in office for eight weeks when his administration ended.  The result stemmed not from any policy failure or political scandal, but from John Hinckley’s bullet, which crashed into the President’s heart, killing him instantly on March 31, 1981.  Hinckley was immediately taken into custody, and a subdued and shocked Jack Kemp was sworn in as the forty-first President of the United States. 

Addressing the nation live from the Oval Office, President Kemp announced his intentions to “carry on the mandate of George Bush, his desire for a strong America, restored by moral and sensible leadership, supported by a government grown from the grass roots of American society.”  However, Kemp quickly signals to conservatives in Congress that the sometimes liberal rhetoric of President George Bush is going directly out the window.  “Priority number one from the White House is getting a tax cut,” Senator Howard Baker signaled fellow GOPers in a memo.

Priority number two, and the one that the media was most interested in, was who would be selected as Kemp’s Vice-President.  Chief of Staff Jim Baker, Kemp’s major holdover from President Bush, was coy with the press, although most assumed that Kansas Senator Bob Dole would receive the nomination, insuring a decidedly conservative administration. 

And, for once, the convention wisdom was correct. 

Dole’s appointment was quickly confirmed by the Senate, and the President begin to lobby for a tax cut to lower the highest rate on the rich from 70 percent to 50 percent, as well as insure an average savings of $2,000 for over eighty percent of American families.  Thanks to the political horsetrading maneuvered by Vice-President Dole and Baker managed to insure that the American Tax Relief Act passed both the House and Senate.

Coupled with an increase in defense spending paid for by cleaning house in domestic departments, and the beginning of negotiations with other nations for free trade; the President managed to successfully navigate through his honeymoon with the public and the press.  Kemp also has no problem with completely dissolving the air-traffic controllers’ strike, and invoked former President Calvin Coolidge’s “No one has the right to strike against the public safety, anywhere at any time.”

Kemp also appoints Sandra Day O’Connor to the Supreme Court, on the recommendation of the Justice Department.

In his first State of the Union address, in January of 1982, Kemp outlines his vision to “reconstruct and renew” the country.  He calls for a return to the gold standard “in order to keep America’s financial security…secure, for today, tomorrow, and forever.  It’s time we made the dollar as good as gold!”

In the mid-term elections, the Democrats had a good deal of fun with Kemp’s proposal to return to the gold standard, and used his statement to oppose his free trade and tax policies are part of a “ludicrous” economic plan “based in thin air…or at best, thin gold” according to one Democratic National Committee advertisement. 

After the Democratic victory, Kemp and Dole were forced to begin looking for a new way to pitch the President’s agenda.

[Max Power]

Sounds good!

[Colin]

Excellent can't wait for more.

[WiseGuy]

WE WANT MORE!  WE WANT MORE!  WE WANT MORE!

[big bad fab]

But where is Kemp NOW?
Have you heard about him?

[big bad fab]

Kemp seems REALLY to have disappeared...
Another X-file.

[A18]

He writes op-eds.

[George W. Hobbes]

I'll try to finish this at some point.

[George W. Hobbes]

Grand Old Poverty
---
In January, 1983 President Kemp decides to get to work by shifting the debate away from the gold standard and on to an issue that pollsters say can lead him to victory over the Democrats in 1984: poverty.  In his State of the Union address, Kemp denounces poverty "as that crazy aunt we have in the attic that everybody is afraid to recognize" and outlines proposals to reform welfare in order to discourage poverty.

"It's just human nature that when somebody owns something, they will improve it, make it better.  Welfare needs to be more than a check, welfare needs to be about assets.  Let's increase public-private partnerships for housing, so that more Americans can open the door and say 'Welcome to my home!'"

The President also calls for a bill that will eliminate the capital-gains tax for folks who invest their money in "the places have, because of unfortunately ill-thought government policies, become American ghettos.  We cannot let folks stay shackled to poverty forever...we must give them a challenge, and encourage the investors to take a risk and invest in their fellow man."

Kemp's speech is well received, and congressional Republicans are poised to begin to play the "politics of pick-off" with Southern and moderate Democrats, who begin to earn the nickname of "boll weevils" (or, as Ralph Nader derisively calls them "Kemp's weevils"). 

By the end of the year, the capital-gains tax reform bill has passed the House and Senate, but a Democratic filibuster has prevented the passage of Kemp's Housing Reform Act.  The President manages to shrug off this defeat, but some Republican commentators are secretly happy.  Now, Kemp still has a wedge issue for the 1984 general election.

More to come...

[Reaganfan]

Looking forward to Election 84