France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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BaldEagle1991
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« on: April 23, 2017, 07:30:22 PM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 11:30:13 PM »

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

What a weird question, since West Virginia and Alabama have very different political histories.

Of course, but you get the point. Very working class and right wing and stereotypically conservative.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 11:35:45 PM »

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2017, 06:14:05 AM »

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.

I do think Trump has hurt the far-right in Europe significantly, both because he is wildly and very publicly incompetent, and that makes voters think twice about Trump-like candidates, and because there are a certain number of voters in continental Europe who are knee-jerk opposed to anything the US does, which meant sympathy for far-right anti-internationalist/pro-Putin parties when Obama was President but the opposite now. (Not that I think these people voted for Macron, but many likely voted for Melenchon but would have voted for Le Pen if the election had been in April 2016.)

That's exactly what I was thinking too. Also Brexit as well as Turkey's Erdogan and even Philippines Duterte may also have influence it too. May make voters think twice about Le Pen.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2017, 08:03:11 PM »

Ifop

Macron: 60.5% (=)
Le Pen: 39.5% (=)

Mélenchon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 39%, Le Pen 16%
Hamon's voters: Macron 81%, Abstain 17%, Le Pen 2%
Fillon's voters: Macron 45%, Abstain 31%, Le Pen 24%

Certainty of the vote
Average: 88%
Macron: 90%
Le Pen: 84%

Looking like a blowout for Le Pen.
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