France 2017: Results Thread

[Vosem]

I find it amusing that the anti-globalists in this thread don't seem to have realized that their champion is selling them out to Eurofuhrer Merkel and will negotiate a trade deal with a united EU, excluding the United Kingdom which will be left in the cold.

Anyway, looks like the polls were basically right. Kind of surprising after how often they've been wrong; my prediction of older voters giving a boost to Fillon were wrong. Happy to see Macron do well, of course.

[Vosem]

The only conservative thing about these "conservatives" in Europe is going to church on Christmas. LMAO, what a bunch of traitors but so many honest righ-wing people are falling for it...

Whatever, not bad for LePen to have the whole Establishment against her. Makes it easier to get the 40% I rate as a success.

The only honest rightism supports the freedom of trade and movement. Protectionism and restrictions are characteristics of far-leftist regimes.

[Vosem]

Haven't even seen Hamon win any communes yet... Dupont Aignan got a few up north though.

He's got a couple random ones in Nouvelle-Aquitaine

[Vosem]

Makes it easier to get the 40% I rate as a success.

40% is a "success" to you, which, of course, is a codeword for "still losing". Just admit that Le Pen is a losing loser who lost and that Wilders, Petry, and co. will never come to even close to achieving power.

You lost. You people always lose. Suck it up, buttercup, and just get over it.

*cough cough* US 2016 *cough*

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/329940-trump-dreamers-should-rest-easy
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2017/04/23/merkel-trumps-u-s-putting-eu-ahead-of-britain-in-trade-queue-begs-questions/#6073d57d579b

That was your biggest defeat yet; y'all were conned by the master con artist of the United States. The globalist agenda will continue unrestricted.

[Vosem]

This is a new right-wing movement that sticks it to the establishment, to the "rich and powerful," and brings more positive solutions.  The US is the perfect example of this.

Nah, the victory of candidates like Van der Bellen, Hillary (in the PV, pretty clearly), Rutte, and Macron is the trend. The centrists are ascendant and supported by the people, and can be beaten only through weird electoral systems in the event of terrible candidates running terrible campaigns.

[Vosem]

This is a new right-wing movement that sticks it to the establishment, to the "rich and powerful," and brings more positive solutions.  The US is the perfect example of this.

Nah, the victory of candidates like Van der Bellen, Hillary (in the PV, pretty clearly), Rutte, and Macron is the trend. The centrists are ascendant and supported by the people, and can be beaten only through weird electoral systems in the event of terrible candidates running terrible campaigns.

The US kicked this off. Clearly. (btw you left out Brexit) One of these days, right-wing populists will be controlling the nations.  It will happen.

I did leave out Brexit, which was intentional, since what made the difference there was support from far-leftist groups which would be difficult to replicate in any election between parties or candidates. If we actually had referenda on all issues, your movement could probably be much more successful. But we don't.

[Vosem]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

[Vosem]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

But Vosem...muh Camp of the Saints narrative...

I mean, to be absolutely fair to Klartext, that data is from 1999 and many areas have shifted since then. But the 5th arrondissement is a deeply tourist-y and wealthy area. You might as well complain about the deletrious effects of immigration to the Upper East Side.

[Vosem]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

Your racism is showing.

Racism is only a codeword for hard truth not liked by the left, so I can pretty well live with that label given from a Leftist :-D

OMG, I triggered some snowflakes really hard :-D

Ok, let's go back to France: I wonder why (according to Ipsos) nearly all Melanchon voters will go to Macron, I mean he's anti-EU and anti-liberalism, Macron is the opposite.

This is like the questions about why Sanders supporters didn't just go over to Trump. Melenchon voters care about economic reforms and opposition to (what they see as) racism; the European Union and liberalism, for these guys, are unimportant issues that it's acceptable to negotiate over. A decent number of them voted Hollande '12, and Melenchon held back from saying he wanted to leave the EU (talking about NATO instead).

Ultimately, the problem your movement has is that overwhelming majorities of French and German people (whether you mean the nationality or ethnicity; you clearly prefer the latter definition and are irked by the former, but it's true either way) are pretty hardcore pro-EU and pro-liberalism, and the generational trend is that it is getting more so. That it seems to be a common thought in your movement that you can win over Melenchon supporters and Antifa sympathizers rather than trying to appeal to mainstream right-wingers (by, for instance, adopting pro-trade stances while remaining anti-immigration, which is a common combination of beliefs) is a good example of why it'll basically never win.

[Vosem]

Who won more communes: Hamon, Dupont-Aignan or Lassalle?

Certainly Lassalle in metropolitan France; probably Lassalle overall, but Hamon may be ahead of him due to the many random island communes he won.

[Vosem]

Its hard to imagine what any French-Israelis would find the least bit appealing about Fillon compared to Macron. If there is one thing about Jewish voters that is pretty consistent it is that they tend to be cosmopolitan and support international institutions like the EU and to be very socially liberal (certainly Jews from western countries not those from Russia or the Arab world). Fillon is a conservat9ive catholic who is anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage and his foreign policy is pro-Putin.  From a Jewish perspective - what's not to HATE?

In contrast i would say that Macron would be the quintessential candidate that a lot of Jewish voters would rally behind - socially liberal, internationalist and yet more pro-business

Many French Jews are the descendants of Algerian Jews who were expelled from that country in 1962, and as a result they've mostly been voting right-wing since, much like the pied-noirs. Le Pen is obviously an unpalatable choice, so the candidate of LR and its predecessors tends to get a lot of support.

[Vosem]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

The far-right didn't win the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary elections. Maybe you mean another country? Anyway, I still don't see how Le Pen wins this unless there is a major terror attack + a major Macron scandal/gaffe. Fillon was plagued by scandals, his program was rather unpopular but he never dropped below 53% against Le Pen.

Fair enough, Iceland was a weird situation, and I didn't follow that one too closely. But I do remember the Centrist party got dumped, the Left as a whole faltered despite leading for most of the way, and the Right pulled through thanks to a splinter party [mixed up the reason for the splinter party to exist though].

I don't think she'll win it as things are, but I don't think it's gonna be a curb-stomper either.

Iceland if anything was a reverse example -- a populist (more left-populist than NF-types, but still) party had led the polls for two years before suddenly collapsing during the campaign and coming in third, with the traditional "mainstream right" party winning and a different establishment party (the traditionally small Greens) coming in second.

[Vosem]

You know what guys, I think Macron is going to fall apart like all the centrist candidates in the past. Look at Barre or Balladur or Bayrou, no way he makes it. People want economic leftism, not a banker candidate