France 2017: Results Thread

[DL]

In the end the final polls were very accurate and as I expected the shooting on Thursday seems to have had no impact whatsoever on how people voted

[DL]

RIP the Socialist Party, and despite Macron moving forward (maybe because of it), this is incredibly rough result for the left.

I mean say what you will about the disastrous campaign of Fillon, but his party managed 20% of the vote despite their candidate being exposed as a crook. The right survives

It may be a rough night for the Socialist Party but not for the "left" when you have Melenchon winning almost 20% and when Macron is widely viewed at the candidate Hollande privately supported

[DL]

Why is Corsica so rightwing? It went heavily for LePen and Fillon

[DL]

Do we know how the French living abroad voted? I can't seem to find that anywhere

[DL]

Wasn't there some speculation that he might pick Francois Bayrou as his PM?

[DL]

Is there a link to these results by country for French abroad?

[DL]

I'm very curious how French citizens in Canada voted

[DL]

good to see, even a country living in constant danger like israel realizes that le pen is a whole different animal even than wilders.

The fact that LePen is an anti-semitic Holocaust denier would tend to suppress her vote among French citizens living in Israel...for some strange reason

[DL]

Its hard to imagine what any French-Israelis would find the least bit appealing about Fillon compared to Macron. If there is one thing about Jewish voters that is pretty consistent it is that they tend to be cosmopolitan and support international institutions like the EU and to be very socially liberal (certainly Jews from western countries not those from Russia or the Arab world). Fillon is a conservat9ive catholic who is anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage and his foreign policy is pro-Putin.  From a Jewish perspective - what's not to HATE?

In contrast i would say that Macron would be the quintessential candidate that a lot of Jewish voters would rally behind - socially liberal, internationalist and yet more pro-business

[DL]

Many[/i] French Jews are the descendants of Algerian Jews who were expelled from that country in 1962,

I thought most French Jews were Ashkenazi and had been in France since long before the Algerian war etc... and also that those who are from North Africa are much more likely to be Moroccan than Algerian. Feelings about the Algerian war were much more raw in the 60s and 70s and 80s than now...but in that era Jews tended to support Mitterrand over Giscard (esp. since the latter was seen to be very pro-Arab)

[DL]

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

[DL]

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

I was not under the impression that all that many Muslim immigrants move to Corsica...why would they (apart from sunny weather)? Its remote, economically depressed etc...

[DL]

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?

[DL]

For all the talk about who will or won't abstain...imagine if the run-off was between LePen and Fillon. If you think a lot of Melenchon voters have a hard time holding their noses and voting from Macron even against LePen...imagine how anyone who voted for Melenchon, Hamon or Macron would have felt about the French equivalent of having to choose only between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump

[DL]

There has been lots of discussion about Macron's wife Brigitte who is 25 years older than he is etc...

But what do we know about Marine LePen's personal life? is she married? Is her husband well known at all? Does she have any children?

[DL]

What do people think of Dupont-Aignan? Is he seen as credible by the French or is he seen as a bit of a quack?

[DL]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

[DL]

I suppose that if the "left" in France splits into a quasi-PCF Melanchon-led Front de gauche as well as a more Third Way style social democratic En Marche party led by Macron...its almost like a return to the days when the French left was made up of the Communist Party that would get about 20% and the very moderate Socialist Party of the 70s and 80s

[DL]

For all the gloating vultures circling over the corpse of the PS - let's not forget that this is also a horrific defeat for the traditional French right - Les Republicains. They could also fly off in all directions and could get severely damaged in the legislative elections too

[DL]

Macron threatens to leave the debate tomorrow if Le Pen is too aggressive.

What would be the point of that???

[DL]

   
   Had it come to a Macron vs Melenchon runoff would Le Pen have endorsed Melenchon?

I suspect there would have been ZERO chance of that happening

[DL]

Latest BVA poll May 1-2

Macron 60% (+1)
LePen 40% (-1)

I know people want to pretend there is suspense in this run-off but lets face it, Macron will win 59-60 to 40-41

[DL]

What do you mean "two points from having it all"? Even I Melenchon had snuck ahead of LePen and made it into the runoff he would have been crushed by Macron by an even bigger margin than he will have against LePen'

[DL]

What do you mean "two points from having it all"? Even I Melenchon had snuck ahead of LePen and made it into the runoff he would have been crushed by Macron by an even bigger margin than he will have against LePen'

Considering where things were, defeating Macron would've been quite the task, but I have no doubt the polls would be much much closer in his favor than they are for Le Pen. But just taking on Macron, forcing him to go further left, forcing him even harder to work for the working class (well beyond the optics he needed at that Whirlpool Factory against a faux-populist).

I'm not so sure that a Macron vs Melenchon run-off would have forced Macron to the left. In fact quite the contrary. If that was the run-off the votes that would be up for grabs would be those of people who had voted for Fillon and LePen (and a smaller number for Hamon). In that scenario Macron might have even campaigned further to the right since the votes he would need to capture would be mostly those of people who had backed rightwing candidates in the first round

[DL]

If by far the largest opposition block to En Marche are the remnants of Les Republicains...how long before En marche becomes essentially a rebranded Parti Socialiste with Macron having a program that is very similar what Valls would have had if he had been President and also similar to what a second term of  Hollande would have been like (in terms of ideology)