France 2017: Results Thread

[rob in cal]

   So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest?  

[rob in cal]

  How would Macron rate on the immigration issue?  I believe he was very supportive of Merkel and her acceptance of a large amount of refugees in the last years, and has said that lots of refugees/migrants coming into Europe is the future.

[rob in cal]

   If NDA hadn't run, where would his voters have gone? Some to Fillon, some abstention, some to Le Pen and some to Macron, but any change to overall outcome? Could Fillon have overtaken Le Pen?

[rob in cal]

 Question, if there was a generic candidate of the right out there, without any personal baggage, who was running on Le Pens platform, but wasn't associated at all with the FN, would they be perceived as on the far right?  And would such a candidate have a chance of winning.  Before his personal baggage was exposed, it seemed that on immigration Fillon was coming fairly close to Le Pen politically.

[rob in cal]

  If rumors about FBM having unusual romantic attractions/and or being gay or bisexual gain traction, that might actually reassure some voters on the right, with them thinking that he might be a closet islamophobe because of this, sort of like Pym Fortuyn was in the Netherlands.

[rob in cal]

  Yeah, has Melenchon said anything?

[rob in cal]

  Perhaps Fillon's stance on the immigration/Islam issue had some support among French Jews in Israel, who found it much easier to vote for him than Le Pen.

[rob in cal]

  Do we know what the 2nd choice of Macron voters would have been had he dropped out or not reached the runoff?

[rob in cal]

  But more importantly, what endorsement decision has Lassalle reached?

[rob in cal]

   On most economic issues, is it fair to say that Le Pen is running to the left of Macron?  From what I've read this seems to be the case.  Of all the populist, anti-globalist European parties lumped in as "far-right" I wonder what others have had candidates running like this, i.e. strongly nationalist, but also on the left economically.
   Had it come to a Macron vs Melenchon runoff would Le Pen have endorsed Melenchon?

[rob in cal]

    We know that both candidates are supporters of going to proportional representation for National Assembly elections, but unfortunately Le Pen now supports a majority bonus (like in Greece  I believe), but what about Fabulous Macron, has he said exactly what type of PR he supports, and has he said anything about it recently?

[rob in cal]

  So I take it my 150 dollars on FBM to win  (or rather MLP to lose, placed before the runoff)are safe at predictit. My winnings should be about 45 dollars. Hilarious that at one point MLP was at 38% chance to win for a day or so a few days before the runoff.

[rob in cal]

   Trump 2.0 which is trending more like a neo-con interventionist administration would likely rather have Macron than MLP imho.  Maybe not Trump himself, but people like Tillerson, Mattis, Hailey, Kushner, Mcmaster etc.

[rob in cal]

  IIRC there was a poll of the French electorate and how they felt about Macron and Le Pen's stances on the EU, immigration etc.  I believe people were closer to  Le Pens stance on immigration by a huge (yuge) number, and Macron's EU stance by a similar number.  So, a big amount of Macron's voters don't necessarily reject Le Pens restrictionist stance, but they are rejecting her and her baggage.  Makes one wonder how Fillon would have done had it not been for his personal transgressions.