France 2017: Results Thread

[Former President tack50]

How long till we have a lot of votes counted? How long does it take France to get most of the vote in?

[Former President tack50]

God Gérard Collomb is a piece of sh*t. I hate FBM and I hate his supporters. I can't believe I'm going to vote for these technocratic neoliberal sh*theads.

Well, there's also Le Pen if you wish

[Former President tack50]

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.

If it helps, the left here in Spain went from around 35% to about 42% (PSOE dropped 5 points, but Podemos/IU tripled their share). Plus our voting patterns do not resemble what you say at all. (either that or everyone is part of the "new left")

[Former President tack50]

Any good results maps with actual numbers?

I found this Italian map but I don't know how reliable it is

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2017/elezioni/francia/?refresh_cens

[Former President tack50]

Mélenchon is still not giving up. Politico.eu says that his campaign's polls say he is within one point of Le Pen.

Did you hear that guys?

Bernie Melenchon can still win!

[Former President tack50]

Does the president have to step down as party leader? Because if not it makes no sense

[Former President tack50]

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.

Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

[Former President tack50]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

Really? Which would be the sides and what would differentiate them? If Macron does poorly, the next election will be won by :

A: The FN
B: A very conservative candidate of the Republicans (kinda like Fillon but without the baggage). Closer to someone like Dupont-Aignan
C: Melenchon/Another far left candidate

Other than Marine being replace with her ¿niece? I can't see much infighting.

[Former President tack50]

PS will formally split this summer.

Damn, is there any centre-left party that isn't about to split between "third way candidates" and "true leftists". Now the French PS, but there's also British Labour (Blairites vs Corbynistas), the Spanish PSOE (Sanchez vs Susana) even the US Democratic party to some extent! (though this last one will not die because of how entrenched the American 2 party system is. Same for Labour)

[Former President tack50]

I hope they are smart enough to vote based on all the information collected, by hacking or not, as long as information is authentic.

on all authentic and important information. which means, it is impossible to know if those leaks are including anything of use 'till the election.

There is still a time. May be we'll find out something bad or good about Macron.

Besides, the French legislative election is soon taking place (11 and 18 June 2017). Plenty of time.

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I didn't deny that.
But it does not mean that there is nothing good about it at all. The more transparency the better.

Even for the legislative election, it won't be as important. Worst case scenario is probably Macron becomes slightly hurt, and the Republicans win (with Le Pen beating her polls but still not by enough). There's a 2 year long or so cohabitation and Macron dissolves parliament and runs a new election.

[Former President tack50]

"Le Pen can't win. The polls are never off by more than 20%"

Even if polls were off by that much, Macron still wins. Michigan was apparently 58-39, or 19.5 points of error (Sanders won by a very small margin, half a point or so).

Polls for France currently average 60-40 in a best case scenario for Le Pen. Add all the errors up and you end up with something like 50.25 Macron-49.75 Le Pen.

An extremely narrow victory sure, but still

[Former President tack50]

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

They were pretty hopelessely wrong in the first round

Yeah, I remember one predicting Melenchon-Macron and getting happy.

[Former President tack50]

Wow, 65-35!

Much better for Macron than anyone predicted.

 But the alt-right ALWAYS does better than polls suggest!!!!111!! /s

[Former President tack50]

Keep in mind that exit polls also showed Clinton winning easily, okay??!1!

/s

ahahahaha yeah Le Pen can still win this thing folks! Just cross that 30% distance.

DID YOU HEAR THAT GUYS??? Bernie Le Pen can still win!!!!!1!1!

[Former President tack50]

So Le Pen basically calls for dissolution of FN brand, and a new patriotic party.
What needs to happen is the dissolution of the Le Pen brand.

I think this will also create a split between the hard right (with some LR like Morano) and the far right.

So, what is the possibility of a revolt led by her niece?

Her niece is still way too inexperienced.

Tbh that could benefit the far right in the long run. I can see the ultras getting like 1% of the vote (like the Trotskyist candidates on the left) and the more moderates fusing with Dupont-Aignan and Dupont-Aignan and someone from the remnants of the FN becoming President and Prime Minister in 2022, finalizing the switch to a 2 party system between globalism and isolationism.

Of course that's a weird thing to happen but still.