France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105549 times)
mencken
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Posts: 2,231
« on: April 24, 2017, 08:29:48 PM »

Since we all like discussing unusual political theories...





Discuss how the Angevin Empire affects current day French politics.

I think it would be more accurate to say that western France is more fiscally conservative, while eastern France is more socially conservative.
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mencken
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Posts: 2,231
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2017, 11:10:02 PM »

Since we all like discussing unusual political theories...





Discuss how the Angevin Empire affects current day French politics.

I think it would be more accurate to say that western France is more fiscally conservative, while eastern France is more socially conservative.

Normandy, Brittany, Burgundy, etc, are strongholds of the PS and can in no way be called "fiscally conservative."

It was a joke.
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mencken
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Posts: 2,231
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2017, 08:30:26 PM »

"Le Pen can't win. The polls are never off by more than 20%"
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mencken
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Posts: 2,231
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2017, 08:56:09 AM »

Even if polls were off by that much, Macron still wins. Michigan was apparently 58-39, or 19.5 points of error (Sanders won by a very small margin, half a point or so).

Polls for France currently average 60-40 in a best case scenario for Le Pen. Add all the errors up and you end up with something like 50.25 Macron-49.75 Le Pen.

An extremely narrow victory sure, but still

He actually won by 1.4%, for one. For two, I was merely pointing out that the tails are fatter than you gentlemen give them credit for; the difference between 20% and 21% is negligible when we are talking about what should be >6 standard deviation events.
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