France 2017: Results Thread

[mvd10]

I wonder whether those leaked exit polls are true or just sh**tty clickbait. 

[mvd10]

I'm looking at France2 here: http://us.wiiz.tv/watch-regarder_france2-live.html

14 minutes to go!

Think about that. In 14 minutes we could see the beginning signs of the end of the EU (if it's Le Pen vs Melenchon)

It doesn't really have to be the end though, I think buyer's remorse will lead to a majority for EM or LR in the legislative elections. But I'm not really sure what a French president can and can not do without a majority in parliament.

[mvd10]

I'm afraid it will be Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon.

[mvd10]

Well, let's prepare for the legislative elections in that case.

[mvd10]

Anyone knows who will be leading LR in the 2017 legislative elections? I read something about Sarkozy potentially seizing control of LR in the event of a Fillon defeat...

[mvd10]

Atleast Fillon does the right thing.

[mvd10]

I had seen an interesting theory on the other election thread:

This election could create a sort-of three-party system in France where the National Front leads the right, En Marche! leads the center, and Mélenchon's coalition leads the left.

Except for the National Front, this seems pretty likely to me.

Please kill me if that ever happens. But I agree with ApatheticAustrian. The right nominated an incredibly corrupt socially conservative Thatcherite (toxic in France) and still got 20% of the vote.

[mvd10]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.

+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

I'd go further and suggest that until the results are against her for sure, Macron is like Hillary and thus liable to lose if even one false move is made or even one scandal shows up.

Le Pen was even trailing Fillon after his scandal, so I'm fairly confident that Macron will win, even with a scandal.

[mvd10]

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I don't think Macron voters would have much trouble with a centrist like Juppé as PM if it's necessary. It's going to be a different story if he picks someone as right-wing as Sarkozy or Fillon but that's not going to happen. Actually picking a centrist LR politician as PM might be really smart, it would hopelessly divide LR.

But EM probably will win a large majority in the legislative elections. Sarkozy might dream of a glorious comeback, but he is the last person who would beat Macron in his honeymoon.

[mvd10]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

The far-right didn't win the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary elections. Maybe you mean another country? Anyway, I still don't see how Le Pen wins this unless there is a major terror attack + a major Macron scandal/gaffe. Fillon was plagued by scandals, his program was rather unpopular but he never dropped below 53% against Le Pen.

[mvd10]

So the French right hates Muslims but they love the Arab world?

[mvd10]

So the French right hates Muslims but they love the Arab world?

You know not all Arabs are Muslims right? And not all Muslims are Islamists?

It was meant as a joke btw.

[mvd10]

I don't think it's fair to call Le Pen a neo-nazi. Her father obviously was one and there probably are some Hitler admirers left in FN, but I don't think Le Pen is an actual neo-nazi. She just is a right-wing populist. That doesn't mean she isn't dangerous though.

I'm glad that Macron won the debate. He isn't that great, but he still is a lot better than Le Pen or the French left. It's probably not going to happen, but it would be amazing if LR manages to win a majority in the legislative elections. Macron as president with a right-wing majority in parliament would be the best outcome. Baroin (or whoever becomes PM) would control domestic affairs and reform the economy while Macron would mostly control foreign affairs, which is for the best since the French right has a strange love for Putin.

[mvd10]

So a pollster randomly ask the French their opinion about someone who got 9% of the vote in a Dutch election? GreenLeft came in fifth, Klaver is not a major international politician.

It's disgusting that Trump's approval rating is lower than Xi's or Putin's. Sure, Trump is terrible but he is not a brutal dictator (he probably dreams of becoming one though).

[mvd10]

Can we expect FN civil war now?

[mvd10]

So, what is the possibility of a revolt led by her niece?

[mvd10]

So 70+ voters voted 45% Fillon in round 1 and 78% Macron in round 2? I never knew French elderly people were massive FF's.

[mvd10]

More election data:

Vote by age and sex

Interesting that the old are very much to left, why is that? WWII memories?

Fillon won them in the first round though. Most of them probably are centre-right voters who are extremely scared by the economic effects of a Le Pen presidency. Many are afraid that leaving the euro would devastate their pensions.

[mvd10]

Well, 2015/2016 polls aren't worth anything but Fillon was on 71% in a poll just after his primary victory. I think he still would have done worse than Macron even without Penelopegate. His economic program was really right-wing by French standards.