France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140050 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,586
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: April 23, 2017, 01:55:07 PM »

Lassalle is winning communes in Pyrénées-Atlantiques? Is that supposed to happen? https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/pyrenees-atlantiques-64/

I'm not shocked that he's doing well in Bearnais/Basque areas. That's his home turf.

The commune my Grandpa's family is from in the Basque region has Fillon winning just 0.6 points ahead of Lassalle.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 02:16:58 PM »


The Macron camp was waiving flags, must be horrifying for US Left-Wingers :-D
Patriotism triggers them.

Meanwhile at the 2016 DNC...

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,586
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 02:20:52 PM »

On BBC: some Le Pen supporter saying Macron wants to dissolve France, believes French culture doesn't exist, and France has no future.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2017, 03:02:22 PM »

Does anyone know if expat votes in the US are broken down by state anywhere?

If it's anything like 2012, the French have their own way of dividing the US that doesn't quite correspond to states.
That really doesn't make sense, other to infuriate mapmakers.
Redrawing American States. The most French thing ever.

Here's Hash's map from 2012. You can see the full version on imgur here.



Basically NoCal, New Mexico, and Louisiana for Hollande and everyone else for Sarkozy. I'd be curious to see the demographics of French expats in Louisiana and why they're more leftist than others.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,586
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2017, 11:57:09 AM »

Okay, important question: I'm trying to make a map of the overseas vote from the PDF someone posted above. I speak French pretty well, but I was going through the results, and one was listed for somewhere called "Ancienne République" (Old/Ancient Republic). I wasn't familiar with what country this refers to in France, so I went into French Wikipedia and typed it in. It brought me to the page for the Old Republic from Star Wars. So, is there a country "Ancienne République" in French, or do Jedis also get to vote in overseas French elections?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2017, 07:26:41 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2017, 07:28:17 PM by Crumpets »

Okay, here's a map of the overseas results:



Macron
Le Pen
Fillon
Melenchon
Hamon/Fillon tie

Some interesting results -
- Le Pen won precisely one country's overseas vote - Djibouti.
- Fillon cleaned it up in Syria, which he won with over 70% of the vote.
- Libya was an exact tie between Fillon and Hamon - 3 votes each!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2017, 07:49:36 PM »

Here's the best results for each candidate by country:

Macron:
1) Germany - 55.92%
2) Zimbabwe - 52.31%
3) Netherlands - 52.22%
4) Algeria - 51.89%
5) Sweden - 51.26%

Le Pen:
1) Belarus - 27.42%
2) Djibouti - 27.21%
3) Monaco - 23.42%
4) Serbia - 20.96%
5) Vanuatu - 20.00%

Fillon:
1) Syria - 74.42%
2) Lebanon - 60.97%
3) Israel - 60.41%
(Jerusalem - 57.12%)
4) Armenia - 46.59%
5) Mauritius - 44.68%

Melenchon:
1) Mozambique - 33.66%
2) Mongolia - 32.50%
3) Iceland - 32.39%
4) Tunisia - 32.11%
5) Laos - 31.61%

Hamon:
1) Libya - 42.86%
2) Mozambique - 16.34%
3) Rwanda - 15.87%
4) Afghanistan - 15.63%
5) Mongolia - 15.00%

Dupont-Aignan:
1) Djibouti - 5.94%
2) Belarus - 4.84%
3) Zimbabwe - 4.62%
4) Andorra - 4.07%
5) Kosovo - 3.64%
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2017, 07:51:33 PM »

Okay, here's a map of the overseas results:



Macron
Le Pen
Fillon
Melenchon
Hamon/Fillon tie

Some interesting results -
- Le Pen won precisely one country's overseas vote - Djibouti.
- Fillon cleaned it up in Syria, which he won with over 70% of the vote.
- Libya was an exact tie between Fillon and Hamon - 3 votes each!
The light blue is for Fillon, right? If so, Fillon won Portugal.

Where did you find the results? I've search and search and i can't find the overseas vote by country.

Yes, Fillon narrowly won Portugal with 35.86% of the vote. Here's the source I used to make the map: https://ca.ambafrance.org/Election-presidentielle-Resultats-du-premier-tour-pour-les-Francais-de-l
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,586
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2017, 08:43:54 PM »

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.



Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).

Has there ever been an instance of mainland France narrowly voting one way and overseas departments flipping the vote the other way?
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